Mared Gwyn

One takeaway from last week’s eventful European Council may have gone largely unnoticed: as the electoral season approaches, there is a concrete risk that summits stop being a place for effective political guidance and become a stage for ideological clashes meant to feed domestic audiences. Exhibit A – Energy The first day dragged on until midnight as Italy and the Visegrád Group clashed with the Nordics over revisions to the Emissions Trading System (ETS). “We’ve been engaged in a drafting exercise all day at the leaders’ level about something technical,” an EU official said. “It’s not resulting in any new measures or new policies that actually help EU member states with their problems.” Czech PM Andrej Babiš blamed carbon market rules for soaring energy costs, which he attributed to speculators. Finland, Denmark and Sweden pushed back, citing the need for predictability. Italy and the V4 have some of Europe’s highest energy costs after failing to diversify from fossil fuels, first relying on cheap Russian gas and now exposed to the energy crunch triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They knew they lacked the qualified majority to reopen the ETS. That was not the point: the aim was to show voters angry about prices at the pump that they are fighting the EU’s carbon tax. Exhibit B – Migration Denmark, Italy and Poland pushed for conclusions language on “avoiding measures that could create incentives for illegal migration,” an implicit blow at Spain’s regularisation of over half a million migrants. Mette Frederiksen had set the tone on arrival, asking the Commission to examine what happens when a country does “almost the exact opposite” of the rest. References to the “pull factor” and Commission coordination of national migration policy did not survive opposition from Pedro Sánchez and Emmanuel Macron. What remained merely asks the Commission to coordinate with the member states on "all types of instrumentalisation." Exhibit C – Budget The EU budget regularly leads to the re-emergence of one of the most deeply rooted divides in Europe, the one between the “virtuous” North that does not want to pay the bill for the “lazy” South, now extended also to the Eastern Europeans. “Sweden is not an ATM for the European Union budget,” said Ulf Kristersson, whose government is outgoing, but the line sums up the mood among the six “frugal” net contributors. The conclusions weren’t contentious because both camps remain entrenched. The one meaningful change was weakening the notion that a deal must be found by year-end. Obviously, the more one is time-pressed to reach an agreement, the more he or she is likely to make concessions. Thus, leaders on both sides claimed they do not feel pressured to secure an agreement in December. As a result, the conclusions certified that the ideologically entrenched positions on the budget have become a game of chicken. 📷Copyright: European Union.