Weekend financial warrior
Joined October 2021
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MarginCallCollect retweeted
In 2007-08 credit default swaps gave one of the clearest warnings:
deemermarketmemos.com/archiv…
I think they need to be watched carefully here. They're behind big paywalls now, so only second-hand information is available to most of us. (@zerohedge is one of the best such sources). But if -- if -- something nasty lies ahead...
MarginCallCollect retweeted
The current State Of My Trusted Thrusts:
Just – just – missed getting a Whaley Breadth Thrust today by 50 net advances: came in at 73.47% and threshold is 73.67%. Would now take a virtually-unachievable 2335 net advances tomorrow to generate one.
Breakaway Momentum: Not yet; mathematically-impossible tomorrow. But market may have a chance to generate one later this week if – if -- breadth remains unusually strong.
MarginCallCollect retweeted
NORTHLAND ON $AMD (OUTPERFORM; PT $175); BELIEVES, 'THERE IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UPSIDE TO CY25 THAN RISKS'
"AMD remains one of our top picks for calendar year 2025. We anticipate AMD will continue gaining market share in AI GPUs, server CPUs, and PC clients as the headwinds from embedded and gaming segments subside. AMD’s AI strategy is driven by its roadmap and Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) advantages, while its server and client CPU products outperform competitors. The PC refresh cycle could be stronger than current expectations, presenting significant upside to calendar year 2025 estimates.
AI Segment: We model AI revenue at $9.5 billion in CY25, up from $5.2 billion, with 1H:25 up 7% over 2H:24. This estimate may be conservative as AMD’s MI325X ramps in 1H:25, and the hardware competes effectively with NVIDIA’s H200. Software remains an area of focus.
Server Segment: AMD is expected to gain further share in server CPUs, with its Turin chips showing better performance than Intel’s Granite Rapids in most workloads. We estimate non-AI data center revenue at $7.7 billion in CY24, up 26% year-over-year, and project CY25 revenue at $8.5 billion, up 10%. These estimates are likely conservative and could provide upside.
PC Clients: We foresee AMD continuing to gain market share in PC clients from Intel, bolstered by strong PC demand in 2025 as Microsoft ends support for Windows 10 (affecting an estimated 1.2 billion systems). Roughly 40% of these systems (480 million units) may be replaced within 18 months. We estimate CY25 client revenue at $7.9 billion, up 15% year-over-year, but this could exceed $9 billion if the replacement cycle materializes as expected.
Other Revenue: For CY24, embedded revenue is expected to have declined by $1.7 billion and gaming revenue by $3.7 billion. However, embedded revenue is rebounding and is projected to grow to $4 billion in CY25, up $350 million year-over-year. Gaming revenue, modeled to decline $1.8 billion to $770 million in CY24, is expected to be flat in CY25.
We believe AMD’s roadmap, strong competitive positioning, and market dynamics present significantly more upside to CY25 than risks."
Analyst: Gus Richard
MarginCallCollect retweeted
youtube.com/@triumvirateTA
We're gonna try to have @blondebroker1 for our livestream tomorrow 10/8 at 7:30 PM EST / 4:30 PM Pacific / 7:30 AM Asia on the market and stocks!
@greatmattsby and @cantonmeow will be with us, while @ewtracker rests in peace... at the beach! 🏖️🏖️
MarginCallCollect retweeted
Cat Crew Saturday!
9 AM EST / 6 AM Pacific / 9 PM Asia
Talking $TSLA $PLTR #Bitcoin and more!
Livestream link can be found on X, as well as
youtube.com/@triumvirateTA
youtube.com/@TGMTrading
@cantonmeow @greatmattsby @dannycheng2022 @HeidingOut @ewtracker and maybe @GarciaCap?
Reposting @atradezcrypto
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The Cat/Matt/TSLAer/Danny and friends round table starts soon - 6 am Pacific or 9 am Eastern or 9 pm Hong Kong.
May even have a PLTR vs. Pooh Pal show down
@evilcantoncat @cryptocantoncat @greatmattsby @dannycheng2022 @ewtracker @GarciaCap @OpenskiesX @HeidingOut @stevebothe
Come and be come all. It’s a clowder of cats on Caturday, August 31 … Most amazing space … @cryptocantoncat @greatmattsby @dannycheng2022 @HeidingOut @GarciaCap @ewtracker @OpenskiesX …
Come and be come all. It’s a clowder of cats on Caturday, August 31 … Most amazing space … @cryptocantoncat @greatmattsby @dannycheng2022 @HeidingOut @GarciaCap @ewtracker @OpenskiesX …
Come hang out Caturday Spaces tmr 8/31 LIVE at 6am Pacific/9am Eastern/9pm Hong Kong. We are hosting the one and only @SevenParr.
Thanks @IvanaSpear for a concise and informative review of $NVDA earnings!!!
$NVDA smaller 3Q beat/raise than previous quarters, BUT numbers have to go up for C4Q24 driven by Blackwell Billions. Notes from the call👇
- Blackwell now expected to contribute billions to 4Q; sets up 4Q nicely. Many were worried about a potential Blackwell delay, but Nvidia highlighted that they are currently delivering Blackwells and expect high-volume production in 4Q. Initially, they were getting low yields, but they were able to rework the mask to improve the yields.
- Hopper is expected to continue ramping up as well. Hopper supply and availability have improved.
- Networking: Ethernet for AI doubled sequentially (includes Spectrum X).
- Margins: Some analysts were surprised by slightly lower GM in 4Q driven by the Blackwell ramp (softly guided to 70%s in 4Q). I think margins can move back up as systems (like the GB200) start getting delivered.
- China grew sequentially but is well below prior levels.
- By end market: strength in sovereign purchases now representing double-digit billion of DC revenues (vs. single digit before). Strength in both enterprise >50%+ and cloud service providers 45% of DC revenues.
I think the negative reaction (while not surprising) will be short-lived. As long as estimates move higher, stocks move higher, and analysts will have to significantly revise C4Q24.
(chart from SemiAnalysis, but ~in-line with what the street was modeling)
