@MarhelmData

Shipping data, commodities, and trade flow analysis. We provide a data platform, private discord, and weekly report. Made by investors, for investors.

 The Open Ocean
marhelm.com
Joined February 2023
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And 2025 is a wrap! Here were our 2025 picks Not pictured is Seabird Exploration, which was acquired mid year up > 50% (good for 100% TWR) Average pick returned ~50% for 2025, with 4/20 names providing a negative return Best pick returned > 300%, worst pick returned -23%
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Can we get an "I was wrong, I'm bad at this" from the oil bears?
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Marhelm retweeted
VolgaLad
@cym27s10h
i24NEWS: The U.S. is carrying out a large-scale evacuation of family members of American diplomats from all Middle Eastern countries except Oman and Israel, according to two regional diplomats
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Kuwait’s crude exports are recovering, but tanker shortages are still constraining diesel and jet fuel exports. Crude shipments averaged ~1.45M b/d before the war, fell close to zero in April–May, and reached just 884,000 b/d in October so far. Product shipping remains the bottleneck.
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Global LNG liquefaction capacity is forecast to rise from 528 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2026 to 773.4 mtpa by 2031. That’s roughly 46% growth, at a 7.9% CAGR. North America, Qatar, Argentina and African exporters are set to drive the expansion.
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QatarEnergy has secured 4M tonnes/year of US LNG through 2054, its first such US offtake deal as war damage at Ras Laffan and Hormuz disruption constrain Qatar’s own exports.
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Product tanker exec told us that the Asian MR market is "very strong" this morning Fuel tankers can be seen as a proxy for refining demand
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Bloomberg- Up to 95% of end-use chemical inventories in China accumulated through 2025 are now depleted due to Hormuz impacts Chemicals industry shifting from glut to squeeze
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Marhelm retweeted
MenchOsint
@MenchOsint18h
⭕️ IRGC targeted Ship-to-Ship transfers last night. 4 'violating ships' transferring oil cargoes in the northern Persian Gulf were simultaneously hit, according to the statement. Additionally, three 'violating ships' suffered incidents upon 'colliding with mines' in the western part of the Strait of Hormuz.
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$DOW reports 3x increase in YOY Op EBIT for packaging and specialty plastics, citing supply constraints from Middle East conflict
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$DOW beats top and bottom, $600M ytd debt reduction $0.71 vs $0.61 consensus
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Chinese petchem glut turns to squeeze?
Giovanni Staunovo🛢
@staunovo23h
#China has burned through much of a petrochemicals glut built up by years of overproduction as the US-Iran war chokes oil flows, setting the stage for higher prices for an array of industrial materials. The squeeze is most acute in the so-called aromatics chain and the downstream products made from these chemicals, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and commodities data provider ICIS. That includes rubber for car tires and electrical insulation, resins, and plastic bottles, as well as various paints and coatings. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

China’s Petrochemicals Glut Turns to Crunch After Months of War

China has burned through much of a petrochemicals glut built up by years of overproduction as the US-Iran war chokes oil flows, setting the stage for higher prices for an array of industrial materi...

bloomberg.com
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Mass evacuations being reported from Aramco sites following more attacks
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One Chinese shipbuilder has a 495-ship orderbook worth $46bn despite delivering its first vessel in 2024. China now controls 64% of the global shipbuilding orderbook. The boom is reshaping the industry, but could today’s capacity expansion become tomorrow’s overcapacity?
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Marhelm retweeted
Ali
@MerruXOct 21
"A U.S. official confirmed to Drop Site that military assets are being moved rapidly into place in preparation for an expected green light from Trump" for renewing combat operations with iran. Dropsite.
Ryan Grim
@ryangrimOct 21
A lot of news in this new piece dropsitenews.com/p/iran-war-…

The War Tehran Believes Is Coming

Iran believes the U.S. and Israel may strike before the midterms. Top security official Gen. Mohsen Rezaei tells Drop Site Iran has new targets in its sights.

dropsitenews.com
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New attacks on Aramco oil fields by Houthis
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Our sources indicate a restart of full scale tensions in Iran is imminent, with joint US and Israeli action
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Unsold Brazilian crude cargoes for November are weighing on Atlantic VLCC demand. Lower freight costs could lure buyers back, but until these barrels find homes, tanker demand remains under pressure.
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Marhelm retweeted
Tom Bike@tom_bikeOct 21
Ship spotted smoking TODAY 👇 off Oman 🇴🇲 at 24.5649, 56.9540 190 m in lenght, near another 230 m leaking a little fuel. 30 km off Sohar.
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Saudi crude exports hit a 5-month high of 4.451M b/d in August, up 7.9% MoM even as production plunged to 6.24M b/d from 8.135M b/d in July.
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