@MarieQuantier
Joined August 2012
  • Tweets13.4K
  • Following70
  • Followers3.5K
286Media
Marie Quantier retweeted
jeroen blokland
@jsblokland30 Jul 2019
Incredible chart on #financials! More than 10 years after the Great Financial Crisis, European financials are still down 50% from their pre-crisis levels (#Greece and #Portugal down to zero), while financials in the US took more than 7 years to top their pre-crisis levels.
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It feels like global macro risks are building for late summer/autumn (hard Brexit, US/China trade spat, US/EU trade issues to come before yr-end and global manufacturing effectively in recession) but all of us are reluctant to fight the CenBanks. Is this a trap, DB’s Reid asks.
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State media means top chinese leaders including #XiJinping who supported army attack against #Tiananmen students in 1989. Today the World has changed. Big capitalism is scared by China and the communist dynasty has little popular support.
South China Morning Post
@SCMPNews29 Jul 2019
Chinese state media calls for ‘forceful’ police action to end Hong Kong unrest buff.ly/31135DM
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Replying to @AntoineBondaz
Mais Xi Jinping sait quil ne peut intervenir a #Hongkong sans changer la face du monde et quitter l'orbite du Tianxia (toit du monde) qui est à la base du projet hégémonique de Pekin. Adieu les routes de la soie #OBOR la banque #AIIB ou même éclatement des #BRICS
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🇯🇵 #Japan’s #GPIF has started currency hedging its overseas bond investments denominated in U.S. dollars and euros, Nikkei reported Sunday. nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO478…

GPIF、為替リスク回避の取引開始　外債1兆円超

年金積立金管理運用独立行政法人（GPIF）が外国債券での資金運用で、為替相場の変動に伴う損失を回避（ヘッジ）する取引を始めたことが分かった。対象は米ドルとユーロ建て債券で、3月末時点の残高は約1兆3千億円に上る。市場の「クジラ」と呼ばれる巨大な機関投資家が同取引を大幅に増やすことになれば、為替相場に影響を及ぼす可能性がある。公的年金の積立金を運用するGPIFは3月末時点で159兆円の資金を運用

nikkei.com
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Replying to @mtmalinen @darioperkins @MarketBlondes
Industrial slowdown -> profits growing slower than loans -> corporate debt looking hugely mispriced. And then a mad rush for the exit from a mkt where liquidity (dealer inventories) is low. Stocks get caught by the common drivers.
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The Fed's job just got more complicated. The U.S. consumer is very strong. Growth is beating expectations. Business spending, though, is declining. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Yields are rising, but the U.S. yield curve is flattening.
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Marie Quantier retweeted
zerohedge
@zerohedge26 Jul 2019
On a real, "GAAP" basis, there has been no profit growth in 5 years - all multiple expansion and made-up accounting.
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Now we learn that the S&P op. profits have not risen since 2014 whereas the S&P is +50%. When prices of goods rise w/out increase in utility, we call it inflation but when stock prices rise w/out increase in earnings, we call it multiple expansion. zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-2…
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Ooof. Our estimate of 12-year prospective returns for a conventional portfolio mix (60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury bonds, 10% Tbills) is now down to 0.46%. The single week in history with a lower estimated prospective return was August 26, 1929 at the market peak. Just FYI.
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Looks as no unanimity achieved on the next big monetary stimulus package. #ECB’s Draghi: Convergence of views, rather than unanimity among ECB policy makers. Says different nuances of views on parts of package, but committees received broad mandate.
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Marie Quantier retweeted
Frederik Ducrozet@fwred25 Jul 2019
If you're not used to listening to the ECB, you might find this comment trivial or obvious. It's not. This is a hugely important and unprecedented step in the ECB's history. Whatever it takes 2.0, to reach their mandate.
European Central Bank
@ecb25 Jul 2019
Draghi: We don’t like what we see on the inflation front. Symmetry means we will act with same determination whether inflation is above or below the inflation aim
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Companies are beating second-quarter estimates, but they aren’t raising forward guidance, effectively lowering the outlook for the second half. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

S&P 500’s Earnings Miracle Is Failing to Take Hold in the Second Half

Behind the scenes of another middling earnings season is evidence that analysts are deceiving themselves when they predict things will be much better by Christmas.

bloomberg.com
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The crazy bond rally continues w/ German 10y yields at -0.38% and Italy's 10y yields down 9bps at 1.51% as mkts price probability of an ECB rate cut tomorrow at 43%.
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Vis-à-vis des alliés de l'#OTAN qui ne paient pas leur "dû" #Trump a toujours brandi les menaces les plus fortes. Mais cette nuit, au grand désarroi des sénateurs républicains, il refuse de sanctionner la #Turquie, allié OTAN, qui a acheté des S-400 à la #Russie. Etonnant, non?
The Washington Post
@washingtonpost24 Jul 2019
Trump at odds with Senate GOP over sanctioning Turkey for purchase of Russian missiles wapo.st/2Ybbvqx
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#Eurozone PMI declined from 52.2 to 51.5 in Jul as manufacturing contraction deepens especially in #Germany. Weak report comes one day before #ECB’s policy decision and delivering fresh ammunition for ECB doves. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Marie Quantier retweeted
Tiho Brkan
@TihoBrkan23 Jul 2019
Buying Treasuries in October of 2018 — as stocks were peaking — was a smart money move. Buying Treasuries today or adding to your positions with a view that the bond market rally just started... might not be so smart from a contrarian perspective. @biancoresearch chart.
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Ouch! German factory slump deepens on trade, Raising recession risk: German manufacturing PMI goes from bad to worse, dropping to just 43.1, an 84mth low. markiteconomics.com/Public/H…
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Ouch! The #IMF expects #deglobalization this year. IMF has cut projects for world trade growth by nearly a full percentage point to 2.5%. That's below global GDP growth projection of 3.2%.
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