đ Prediction markets enthusiast âĄïž Founder of Weather Olympus Discord (for weather traders) https://xitter.cf/t.co/8o7Xr7pSlk
Joined February 2023
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I finally managed to make a profit on the Quebec election.
Congrats to the PQ on their 60th seat!
âïž đđđđĄđšđ§, đŠđđ«đđą đđź đđšđ§đ đđź đĆđźđ«! đ
Au terme d'un recomptage judiciaire et de plusieurs jours d'attente, le rĂ©sultat est maintenant officiel : j'ai l'immense honneur d'ĂȘtre Ă©lu dĂ©putĂ© de Vachon Ă l'AssemblĂ©e nationale du QuĂ©bec!
Je tiens d'abord Ă remercier du fond du cĆur les citoyennes et citoyens de Vachon qui m'ont accordĂ© leur confiance. Je mesure pleinement la responsabilitĂ© qui accompagne ce rĂ©sultat.
Merci également à mon équipe, à nos bénévoles, à mes proches et à toutes les personnes qui ont contribué, de prÚs ou de loin, à ma campagne. Votre énergie, votre détermination et votre confiance ont été essentielles.
Je souhaite aussi saluer les autres candidates et candidats de Vachon. Cette Ă©lection extrĂȘmement serrĂ©e nous rappelle l'importance de chaque voix et la responsabilitĂ© qui accompagne le privilĂšge de reprĂ©senter la population.
Mais au-delĂ du rĂ©sultat d'aujourd'hui, je ne peux m'empĂȘcher de repenser au chemin parcouru.
En 2022, j'ai choisi de porter les couleurs du @partiquebecois Ă un moment oĂč notre formation politique traversait l'une des pĂ©riodes les plus difficiles de son histoire.
Lorsque nous nous sommes retrouvĂ©s avec seulement trois dĂ©putĂ©s Ă l'AssemblĂ©e nationale, j'ai acceptĂ© lâappel de @PaulPlamondon pour devenir co-porte-parole du parti, convaincu que nos idĂ©es, notre projet et notre engagement envers le QuĂ©bec mĂ©ritaient de continuer Ă ĂȘtre dĂ©fendus.
Ce choix n'a pas été sans conséquences. Mon engagement politique a profondément bouleversé mon parcours professionnel. J'aurais pu choisir un chemin plus facile. Mais jamais je n'ai renoncé à mes convictions.
Aujourd'hui, en repensant à ces années de défis, de sacrifices, de rencontres et d'espoir, je mesure toute la portée du chemin parcouru.
Et je sais que je n'ai pas fait ce chemin seul. Je pense notamment Ă mes anciens collĂšgues porte-paroles et co-porte-paroles aujourdâhui Ă©lus : @MeganneMelancon, @HandfieldSteph, @SMichon_, @CoutureGen21647, @CamillePF2, @VenneVeronique, et @EmileSimardQ.
Si jâai appris quelque chose ces derniĂšres annĂ©es, câest que les convictions prennent tout leur sens lorsqu'on accepte de les dĂ©fendre, surtout dans les moments les plus difficiles.
Cette victoire ne marque pas la fin d'un parcours. Elle ouvre un nouveau chapitre, avec de nouvelles responsabilités et un devoir renouvelé de servir.
Ne baissons jamais les bras! âïžđ«Ą
Merci, Vachon! đ
I started trading weather on @Polymarket following a significant loss due to an ambiguous rule and a UMA vote.
Weather is facts. It's simple, no ambiguous rules.
For a year and a half, any ambiguous situations I saw were ultimately resolved according to the rules. The market resolves according to a specific source (Wunderground in the past, now weather gov), not METAR. As long as we stick to the rules, there is no ambiguity.
Until a month ago, when a new rule appeared stating that if a source publishes data that is "clearly erroneous" due to a technical error, the market can remain open for up to 7 days waiting for a correction.
With my somewhat autistic brain, my immediate reflex was to wonder what is "clearly erroneous" and what isn't. I was told it was easy to tell, which left room for plenty of interpretation.
But today was the first time this rule was applied.
The market thought that this morning's reading in Cape Town was ''normal'' because of a thunderstorm. Except there was never a thunderstorm.
@Polymarket clarified based on the truth, and the reading was considered an obvious error.
Congrats to those who believed in the truth. I am happy about the precedent this will set. I think this will restore confidence in the market and bring long-term liquidity.
I was checking the current state of todays temperature market for Cape Town (FACT).
It looks like there was some outlier report in the morning. I was just checking my dashboard, none of the PWS were indicating such an insane jump, especially with that strong. Neither thunderstorms nearby according to lightning radar reported it.
If we compare the SPECI of FACT and of another airport (FABL - 900km away) they had identical SPECI reports:
SPECI FACT 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
SPECI FABL 180528Z 05004KT 9999 TS FEW050CB 19/12 Q1019 NOSIG
I have a strong feeling someone mixed something up. I am invested in 19C NO. No financial advice.
2 years ago, I had no idea what Discord even was.
When I started trading weather back in May 2025, I caught a Discord invite dropped in the Polymarket comments.
It was just a small server @strider_pm set up to degen on London and New York, the only two markets around back then.
I jumped in and started trading and exchanging with guys like @Hans323 , @atteonthephone, @CUTNPASTE4 , and others.
My trading leveled up big time.
When weather markets started multiplying, I wanted to recreate that exact space to trade and sweat live city conditions together with other traders.
Thatâs why I created Weather Olympus.
Truly honored to see the server shouted out by @PolymarketTrade.
Massive thanks to our 1500 members! đïžâĄïž
Discord servers where Polymarket traders hang out:
âââ
PolySquare: discord.gg/polysquare
Poly Alpha: discord.gg/polyalpha
Kingdom TSYBKA: discord.gg/tsybka
Betmoar: discord.gg/betmoar
Weather Olympus: discord.gg/WeatherOlympus
Welcome to the trenches.
12/ Those wins offset the losses on a CAQ or PLQ victory.
Result: break even.
PQ finishes at 28% and 59 seats, a minority.
PLQ at 40.
PCQ enters with 19.
CAQ: 0 seats, on 13% of the vote.
The 0 seats meme was not a meme.
13/ What Iâm taking from it.
Talk to normal people, not just people on X.
Follow campaign managers, candidate Facebook pages, where the leaders travel late in the campaign, etc.
Cross the raw polls. Guess who the undecideds are, who theyâll vote for, and what could change their mind. Published polls are often already allocated.
Talk to other traders and get challenged. Thanks to @MrWorldwidePI and @xK0neko. Even though I lost money on CAQ, I loved your 0 seats meme.
Sizing. Take profit. Stay disciplined. Same as any bet.
The headline market is usually priced fine. Riding markets and seat-count markets have a lot of edge.
14/ Canât wait to dive into the next one.
Municipal elections, or the provincial election in British Columbia?
Weather taught me to buy the underpriced probable, because of physical processes.
Politics taught me the probable can split, show up too late, because of human behavior, and that 30k shares with no liquidity isnât a position. Itâs a trap.
11/ So I start buying really cheap scenarios I see as likely and underpriced.
PLQ/PCQ in Richmond (loss, tight 2ndâ3rd)
PLQ in Saint-François (loss, 2nd)
PCQ in Drummond (sold at 50Âą for a win when it was tight, thanks @Joker_Poly )
PCQ in Louis-HĂ©bert (win)
PCQ in Maskinongé (loss, 2nd)
PCQ in Jean-Lesage (loss, 2nd: I thought Solâs Option nationale past would send sovereigntists to the PQ and split their vote)
Seats: PLQ 35â39 / 40â44 (win, possible double win on a recount).
PQ 50â59 / 60â64 (win, same).
Free brag: no market for it, but I had Julie White in Jean-Talon. Analysts called it a surprise.
10/ Worst-case scenario, version 2.
People who voted strategically CAQ in advance voting wasted their strategic vote.
On election night, the new strategic option isnât clear.
A PQ win becomes basically certain. Without them gaining any new vote in %.
People will vote strategically. It probably wonât be enough. And a lot of them no longer know what the strategic option even is.
9/ My ground read + the polls: the PQ still isnât gaining any new vote in %. Undecideds are still hesitating between CAQ and PLQ.
Then the CAQ starts falling. Too late.
Advance voting was very heavy. By the time people voted early, the CAQ had started to slip, but not enough in the polls.
Then the PLQ rises.
Ground talk, a week later: âA week ago I wouldâve voted CAQ. Iâm voting PLQ/PCQ/QS.â
8/ Meanwhile, Milliard starts so badly that Fréchette still looks like the federalist option.
Duhaime runs such a good campaign, and such good debates, that heâs clearly going to eat CAQ vote in the Quebec City region.
Worst-case scenario starts to form: a perfect split of the federalist vote.
PCQ and PLQ are concentrated. CAQ can still win seats if the anti-referendum strategic vote holds.
But it has to exist, and it has to know where to go.
7/ Three examples.
âIâm not François Legault.â Except Quebecers liked Legault. He was the reason the CAQ existed.
Someone worries about their plant closing. Robotic answer: the list of business aid programs. Heâs losing his job. He does not care about your programs for other companies.
Talking like a robot. Iâve seen plenty of other videos where she looks authentic and comfortable. Why not in a debate?
5/ At the campaign start, Iâm sitting on about 30k shares of CAQ and PLQ.
Right at the start of the campaign, the timing of the tariffs lifts the CAQ.
Everyone I talk to says theyâre voting CAQ.
A lot of them didnât even vote CAQ in 2022.
CAQ runs back to 30Âą.
I tried to sell a bit. Volume was way too thin for 30k shares.
1/ Post-mortem of my first real political bet: the Quebec election
If you follow me, you know me for weather trading on @Polymarket .
The strategy: buy scenarios that are likely, but massively underpriced. (Harder lately.)
Classic example: a dayâs max temperature at 1â2Âą, and hit x50 or x100.
Thatâs how you get a positive PnL with a 27% win rate.
I ran the same logic for this election.
4/ How I followed the campaign.
Not the people on X telling you to read the blue book, or that the PCQ is the next government.
Normal people. People who care about voting, but donât follow politics day to day.
And the raw poll data, before undecideds get allocated.
Both sources said the same thing:
PQ ceiling.
People are undecided between CAQ and PLQ/PCQ.
3/ In the spring, PLQ ran to 30Âą. I took profit and bought CAQ back at 10Âą.
This summer, CAQ ran to 20â24Âą. I sold and bought PLQ back at 10Âą.
First mistake.
Taking profit was right. Systematically rotating into the other federalist option was not.
2/ Starting thesis:
The PQ was stuck around 30%, roughly the same as referendum support. And it doesnât go higher.
The federalist vote would eventually coalesce behind the PLQ or the CAQ.
With Trump, and near-unanimous Quebec support for Mark Carney, I couldnât see how the PQ could climb.
So I bought PLQ and CAQ, each under 10Âą. CAQ as low as 4Âą when Legault resigned.
