building @tiprun_markets prev @binancelabs eng @NTUsg
Joined September 2021
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“His name is Huang” 🤣🤣🤣 I’m no eugenicist but this is by far the most accurate take
The “Jensen got compromised by a CCP spy” narrative is a pretty lazy small brain narrative designed to be parroted by a Western audience that think Chinese people are an ant colony-like hive mind bc they can’t tell them apart. In a way, they mistake the Chinese for N Koreans.
The Chinese mind is not wired to be subservient, nor is it inherently communist. The overriding genetic directive encoded in the Han Chinese DNA is exceedingly simple.
Acquire wealth. Acquire status. Make it last forever. A dynasty that never ends.
(Sounds like a banger Spice Girls parody actually)
There's no feverish devotion to the export of Chinese communism around the world. There is no extremist loyalty to the state. It is simply survive and thrive.
And so Alice Huang is unlikely to be a Chinese Natasha Romanoff trained and bred to steal American secrets for the CCP. She is more likely simply a 40+ year old woman with the opportunity to sleep with one of the richest men in the world in order to clip some incredible middlemen fees off billions of dollars of purchase orders between Chinese tech companies and NVIDIA.
And Jensen is unlikely a retarded doofus who got duped into selling his chips into China. Look at him - you notice anything different about him? Look at his face. Look at his eyes. I'll give you a hint - his name is Huang.
The same Chinese mercantile blood runs through his veins. He is genetically hardwired to maximize value. He wants to sell the fucking chips to China. Of course he does. Money can be exchanged for goods and services.
He obviously knows the end destination of the chips are China. Or rather, he doesn't. That's the whole reason why Alice is around and gets paid a huge middleman's fee. Alice's entire reason for existing in this chain is to provide him and NVIDIA with plausible deniability.
If Alice wasn't in the picture - it would be some other Chinese person in Singapore instead.
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Despite all those efforts by kalshi & polymarket to try to hide sports on the homepage and look like a financial news site, sports still account for 78% of trading volume on the two as of last week, and 98.6% of that volume is on only 4 sports: soccer, (american) football, tennis, and basketball. The other sports’ volumes look like rounding errors.
but here’s the missing part: cricket, the world’s 2nd largest sport with 2.5b fans & >$150b (est.) annual betting turnover.
IPL’s media rights per match is >3x NBA and >8x MLB. it’s hard to compare betting turnover bc a lot of cricket betting happens on offshore & even offline bookies. $150b is an estimated number & the real number should be bigger than that.
And that’s precisely why i’m building in this sector - bc there is a demand, massively. a lot of ppl were shocked that a chinese girl is building a cricket prediction market - sounds like the weirdest combination. The idea came when i was traveling in new zealand for christmas last year and it was game season - cricket matches were on tv. but when i looked at prediction markets, the market types & match coverage for cricket were so basic.
meanwhile sportsbooks offer hundreds of bets for each match, but they’re so hard to access (depending on your nationality), and the odds were shit or suddenly gone mid match. and that’s before the account bans - so many ppl i know have had their accounts broken / banned by bookies, for winning, arbing, or doing whatever that’s not losing money to them.
i have got this comment once from a crypto bro which basically is “this is niche” & “you have no moat against the giants”.
the first part is outright wrong - all commonwealth countries would disagree, including the first one to have commercial bookmaking in the 1800s (UK), the one suffering from the highest gambling loss per capita (Australia), and pretty much the entire south asia. All of those parts of the world love / are obsessed with this sport.
With regard to the 2nd part, i believe that as an exchange market grows, it will specialize, in asset types and distribution. kalshi exclusively serves the us, and the past few months have demonstrated that polymarket is prioritizing the us over the global market, too. walking in their shoes, that’s totally understandable & somewhat expected. these are american teams, they were founded in the biggest financial & regulated* sportsbetting market in the world, they got the license & no-action letter from CFTC, it’s a lot easier to do marketing & distribution in your home country, and they’ve both got Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor - ofc they would keep conquering the US, & that explains why their sports volume is concentrated on the few sports that are the most popular in the us.
but the world is far bigger than just america (even tho i live here now). every category on prediction markets takes a specialized build to identify, create, and settle markets, and takes specialized marketing & distribution. every vertical that a prediction market decides to focus or not focus on is a strategic decision, never arbitrary. it’s a strategic decision for the current duopoly to sideline cricket, the world’s 2nd largest sport; and it’s a strategic decision for us to focus it & serve the 2.5b people that are still being exploited by outdated bookies.
cricket is just the start. the world has more than 4 sports, and it’s a lot bigger than the us.
*caveat: i use the word "regulated" bc if including illegal betting, china is almost certainly the biggest.
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Feel weird that I just moved here a few months back & already experienced a historical moment of this state
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The panic runs both ways.
In the US, the read is that Chinese open-weight models are only months behind and ~10x cheaper. For a non-US company like Revolut, self-hosting GLM is the obvious move — it's more than good enough for most engineering work, and nobody's rationing tokens.
In China, the labs are cut off from distilling US frontier models and scrambling for data. And a high-context, low-documentation business culture makes non-coding enterprise adoption much harder.
Revolut is a landmark battle in that war — but coding is the easy front.
BREAKING: Revolut moved ~2,000 engineers onto self-hosted GLM for coding and pushed Claude Code and Codex to the exception list.
Per David Abitbol, who leads AI ops there: 56 Nvidia B200s, a blended 30 cents per million tokens, roughly a tenth of what they paid Anthropic and OpenAI. Engineering lead time improved 70%.
Here's the part that matters: the gains showed up when tokens stopped being rationed. Engineers quit saving AI for the hard tickets and pointed it at everything.
Frontier models become the exception, open weights become the default. That's a pricing problem for every lab heading to IPO.
h/t @OliverMolander
Would you move your team off frontier APIs if the bill dropped 90%?
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our documentation was down for a bit yesterday. then saw this.
why would anyone attack gitbook???
first time anyone ever wanted to get into docs so badly ...
feels like everything's a bit broken these days
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Talk to anyone outside tech and their impression of X is completely different from mine.
To me X has everything: crypto, AI, opinions, news, memes, brain rot, politics, networking, user acquisition. More dimensions than any other social platform.
To people who rarely use it, X is delulu land for political radicals and technocrats who can't be trusted. The irony is that the lowest opinions of X come from the people who don't actually use it. They call it an echo chamber while sitting comfortably inside their own.
Meanwhile everyone's on Instagram, because there are no opinion pieces, no "scary" "overhyped" "untrustworthy" AI talk, no controversy. Just lifestyle and entertainment.
Two things I find interesting:
-The people with the most extreme takes on something are usually the ones who've spent the least time with it.
- Most people underestimate their own agency over their feed. Social media is only as good as what you feed it. Knowing how to train the algorithm to reflect your actual interests and work toward your goals is a hidden differentiator.
It’s actually crazy how X makes you believe the entire world is falling apart every single day.
Another war, another crisis, another headline about how we’re all fucked.
Then you go outside and realize everyone is just living their normal lives, going to work, eating at restaurants and enjoying themselves.
Sometimes you just need to close X, stop consuming all this fear and go enjoy your life. The algorithm makes you believe that everything is negative and bad.
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I just love that this resurfaced on my timeline. I'm 90% with Jeff.
A lot of people hunt for system hacks and believe humans can only do a few hours of focused, quality work a day, and that anything beyond that has diminishing returns. It's hard, but your nervous system can adapt to long hours of grinding. And enough grinding naturally teaches you to work smart.
That doesn't mean smart work doesn't matter. It means you shouldn't be hyper-fixated on it. Get the work done first, as well as you can. Getting smarter at it is a byproduct of consistent, persevering effort.
The 10% caveat: this comes from someone who trained for international olympiads and at HRT, with very high raw intelligence. The advice doesn't apply to everyone. Not everyone has the perseverance to train themselves into long hours, or the intelligence and self-awareness to get smarter just by grinding more. For someone like Jeff, grinding feeds directly into his learning loop, so he grinds less and works smarter the next time around. For others, not necessarily. Some people need to be told to be strategic, to optimize their systems before they start, or they'll spend five hours on something that should take one, over and over.
For people with high self-awareness and constant reflection, getting smarter as experience accumulates is a built-in feature you barely notice. For others it's a muscle that needs reminding, otherwise the wasted time and energy is pure opportunity cost.
1/ Controversial take: hard work is more important than smart work.
It's a myth that we only have a few hours of good creative work per day. Train yourself to grind long hours first. You will surprise yourself. The work naturally become higher quality, less distracted.
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This is called 破釜沉舟 in Chinese, which literally means “break the cooking pots & sink the boats”, in reference to one of the greatest warriors in Chinese history called Xiangyu fighting the Julu battle. He led his army across the yellow river & had the boats sunk & pots broken so there’s no turning back - they either win or die. 2200 years later, still the way to do it.
Ultra successful people typically cancelled all backup career options when they were younger.
These people will quit a high-paying job, drop out, sell their apartment or sacrifice life's comforts in the pursuit of success. Society will judge you for making a reckless decision, but in our experience, the ones who kept the backup option to become a consultant or join a big company almost always took it, usually 2yrs in when the work got boring.
People with a backup option live as two people: the version doing the work and the version that exists if you quit. This split personality means you only put 50% of your maximum mental effort into the risky option.
To be world-class at anything, you have to set fire to the boat and bridge behind you.
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It’s Friday night & im having a Texan whiskey (underrated) & talking to Claude about some mechanism design for our upcoming markets & it feels better than hanging out with a human.
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wtf does their marketing - seriously distasteful
Got an email from @WisprFlow with step-by-step instructions to disable voice typing in @meetgranola.
I didn't even know Granola had that feature.
I turned it on and cancelled my WisprFlow subscription.
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Elon Musk is being dick in this particular situation but also that’s just what he is - it’s priced in. CZ politely asking for a stop while lowkey threatening doesn’t play out that well tho. He should’ve just ignored
It’s pretty clear that Elon Musk can’t stand CZ
They’ve been taking shots at each other for years.
Back in 2021, when Binance suspended DOGE withdrawals, Elon publicly called the situation shady.
CZ responded by bringing up Tesla recalling 12,000 cars because of a software issue.
in 2022 Binance invested $500M in Elon’s $44B Twitter acquisition.
Funny enough, CZ later said that 90% of Elon’s ideas for Twitter would probably fail.
Now after reports of Binance suffering a $6.3B hack, Elon decided to joke about the situation, posting “Everyday is Zeroday.”
CZ wasn’t happy at all.
He publicly asked Elon to stop trolling and reminded him that Binance’s original $500M investment in Twitter is now supposedly worth over $1 BILLION in SpaceX shares.
That’s the funniest part of this whole situation.
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It cracks me up that every time English ct shits on CZ, we’ve got the Chinese community saying “sb” in the comments section 😂.
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Honestly from a business operator’s perspective these clauses are reasonable & standard. There’s probably no better way to do it. And Polymarket is already a very responsible team, trying to make users whole every time shit happens. But still it gave me a sense of disillusionment that an onchain decentralized platform at the end of day had to request KYC & NDA after hacks, like we have to revert from defi to “cefi” when shit hits the fan. Code is not law in this situation bc it cannot handle real world complexity of an indemnity payout. Still have to resort to real world law.
🚨Polymarket is forcing hack victims to sign an NDA to receive their refunds !
The terms are insane:
- Full KYC (on a crypto platform)
- *AGREE TO NO PUBLICLY CRITICIZE POLYMARKET*
- Waive known AND unknown claims from the incident.
- Keep the settlement terms confidential
The gag clause is crazy.
It covers all statements "creating a negative, critical, or unfavorable impression,” including on social media.
Polymarket is essentially asking users to dox and silence themselves if they want any refunds for the hack THEY are responsible for.
Thanks to @TheNotoriousSKi for leaking the terms despite the NDA.
What about just owning up to the mistake and replenishing affected wallets ?
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