Analyst, pollster & economist. Tweets self-destruct.
Joined November 2008
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Matt Dabrowski retweeted
Data centers were also literally on the ballot in a bunch of places and got crushed.
Voters sided against data centers in 40 of 41 ballot measures, with basically no correlation to how red a county was. Deep red OH voted about the same as CA.
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
🥩 Retail beef prices remain near record highs, but look what's happening underneath the surface.
📉 Every trim category is below year-ago levels, with 50s down 44% and 90s down 10%.
🍔 Ground beef prices are more mixed, but mostly lower as well.
🤔 How long before these wholesale declines show up at the retail meat counter?
#beef #cattle #groundbeef
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
Our article also included election-by-election reviews:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/sup…
22 & 24 were close to the model's expectations. For 26, our lawmaking measure likely underestimated the rightward shift, as it was executive-driven. & the Iran war & inflation added to the backlash.
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
This election followed the normal thermostatic pattern, where moving policy rightward leads to Democratic gains (my early estimates). The extent of gains exceeded prior elections, but is consistent with our qualitative interpretation of prior waves:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.…
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
Fun graphic: hiring rate, quits, and job openings now,
with a red dotted line for their average values from July 2017 to June 2018, a period where the unemployment rate was also 4.14%, similar to what it is today.
Given the level of unemployment, hiring is down significantly.
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
For the full context, Lanier’s father had just been killed in a traffic accident. He wasn’t in a good headspace and wrote Laimbeer and the team apology letters.
Laimbeer and his broken nose were back in the starting lineup 2 nights later.
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
What I'm going to now sound like talking about chart posting the economic data drops during the inflation wave of 2021-2023.
New post: I used to be obsessed with ECI (2021-2023). Now I just forgot about its new drop today until @EconBerger pointed out it's a window into the affordability crisis.
Employers’ hourly health insurance costs are growing twice as fast as wages under Trump: 6.4% vs 3.1%. /1
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
The first release of my R package `fourthirtyfive` makes congressional district maps (2005-27, incl. those for next week's election) easily downloadable and mergeable, with hex/dotmaps, real shapefiles, descriptive names, and interactive overlays with #mapbox:
shirokuriwaki.com/fourthirty…
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
Political science forecasting models expect clear Democratic House control but are mixed on Senate outcomes:
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
There has been no appreciable rise in beef cow slaughter after fall weaning. In the most recent five weeks available it is -20% year/year.
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
Cash has kept feeder cattle futures rolling but they're due to correct. Jan opened at resistance and closed below it yesterday on a high volume day with increased open interest. Jan may pull back to $332-$336 before resuming its march to $353.
@BarchartAg @Barchart #cmdtyview
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
I’ve built an R package, {nbadatar}, to load my NBA play-by-play, possession and lineup data, now live for 2026-27 and updated daily, with 30 seasons of history.
github.com/ramirobentes/nbad…
Here's how the data looks for last night's 23-0 run by Detroit against Boston.
#rstats
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
tidycensus 2.0.0, one of the milestones from this summer's R Consortium grant, is now on CRAN.
The package works the same as before, but with a modernized httr2 backend and lots of internal improvements to make data assembly faster and more resilient to failures.
Plus I was able to clear out almost all of the outstanding issues, adding support for several new datasets / geographies and adding some long-requested features like auto-labels for variables.
The 2025 1-year ACS drops next week, so update today and get ready for the new data.
Not an R user? Tell your AI agent to "use tidycensus" and you'll find your agentic Census work so much smoother.
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
Bloomberg's Cattle on Feed poll. This will mark a fifth month in a row of lower than last year placements. The market is currently more focused on the near term tightening of supply into Q1 rather than concerns over the US consumer.
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
In @nytopinion
“High beef prices didn’t just happen overnight,” Derrell Peel writes. “They’re not going away anytime soon, either.” nyti.ms/4dQIMRr
Matt Dabrowski retweeted
New data from my Centerline National Poll -
I always wonder what respondents think "capitalism" and "socialism" mean when polls ask about those concepts, so I asked favorability for the items, then provided definitions and re-asked.
The results are fascinating - and indicate that Democrats aren't all just flocking to socialism instead of capitalism. Link to substack and release below:
