Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44) profile picture

Matthew Dickinson

@MattDickinson44

Presidency Scholar, specializing in elections, White House organization, decisionmaking, American politics.

blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/
Joined January 2012
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Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)Photo by Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)
I'm in the @wcax studio tonight, and popping up on your TV screen with some occasional commentary. Meanwhile, I'll keep this tweet thread going during downtime. it will be interesting to see some competitive state races #Vermont
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With 88% of the vote in, worth noting that Scott is above the 50% vote threshold necessary to win outright. #Vermont
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OK. Late night. Ended up doing more on air segments than I anticipated, so less time to tweet. I'll do the post-mortem later this week. But suffice to say the UNH polling outfit has some thinking to do.... #Janoo #Scott #Vermont
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Re: the dueling State Navigate and UNH gubernatorial polls. I've said a lot about UNH's relatively smaller turnout estimate for the 65+ voters. But Navigate's turnout model has a high 65+ turnout, at least compared to recent midterms. #Vermont
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Here's the comparison between polls and Census estimates of 65+ turnout in 2018 and 2022. Note that I can't find the UNH actual likely voter model. This shows the 65+ raw counts reported by them.
Image from Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44)
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the bottom line: we can't be sure which set of polls estimated age-based turnout most accurately.
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