Milton Berg Edge

We've started publishing original videos of Milton Berg on his YouTube channel. The first is up now: a 35-minute conversation, and the first one produced by us rather than a guest appearance on someone else's show. He walks through how he models market bottoms, going back to 1957. Attached is his introduction — why a 48-year market veteran who managed money for Michael Steinhardt and George Soros decided to build something for ordinary investors. Full conversation linked in the reply.

The full stories behind the Closing Bell Report for Tuesday, Oct 27, with sources: Chips and a narrow rally: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… Boeing and the 737 Max ramp: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… Confidence and after-hours reports: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… The Fed on Wednesday: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… Big Tech earnings and AI spending: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… Anthropic and the IPO record: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… Oil, Iran and the refiners: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… Russia, Ukraine and diesel: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… The midterms and stocks: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… France's protests and bonds: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… Top or bottom?: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202… The close: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…

The one thing every forecaster claims to do, and Milton Berg says nobody does it well: "It's very difficult to call market tops. Very, very difficult. I've never seen any great market analyst that's consistently called market tops. Never." That's exactly why the model doesn't try to call the top. It works on probabilities and an 8% rule to step aside early once a decline is underway, and get back in early when the next advance starts.

Can anyone actually time a market bottom? Milton Berg says one approach has. "I have seen an analyst who could consistently call market bottoms. And that's the MB Edge analysis." The MB Edge analysis is built to do exactly that: come back in early at the start of a new bull market, and step aside early when a bear market begins. It works in probabilities, holding one position at a time, fully in the S&P 500 or fully in Treasury bills.

"I'm not a salesman. I don't want to sell my product." Milton Berg on why the retail version costs ten dollars a month, and what he actually wants it to do: let an individual investor sleep at night, in bull markets and bear markets both.

How should you decide when to own stocks and when to step aside? "Raise the probabilities, rather than trading based on seat of the pants or headline news." That's the whole idea behind the model: it weighs the probabilities instead of reacting to the headline of the day, and it commits to one position at a time - fully in the S&P 500, or fully in Treasury bills.

Milton Berg, on why the model works in odds instead of forecasts: "You're never involved in certainties. Everything is just probabilities." That's how the model is built. It weighs probabilities rather than predicting, and it acts on them one position at a time, either fully in the S&P 500 or fully in Treasury bills.

A model built from 15 indicators fired at the March 2020 low. It had happened exactly once before. Milton Berg left it out of everything he acts on - one instance is not evidence. It fired again this year, and only now does it count. That is the discipline behind 30,000 indicators and around 2,000 models.

What does Milton Berg actually watch, if not the news? "We really care very little about the headline news — what the price of oil is doing, what inflation is doing. We only care about the data the market is showing us." The model works the same way. It reads the market's own signals rather than the headlines, and it acts on probabilities instead of predictions - fully in the S&P 500 or fully in Treasury bills, based on what the data shows.