Is #Bitcoin math? What if BTC is following a predictable timeline of tops, bottoms, and blow-off peaks? Here’s a model projecting the next potential ATH and why $190,000 by 2029 is aligned with previous cycles. Bookmark this. Let’s dive in: 🧵👇 Last cycle: Bitcoin topped ~Oct21 > Nov22 (~378days) Last bottom to top: ~Nov22 to Oct25 > (~1064days) This cycle: Bitcoin topped ~Oct25 > Oct/Nov26 (378days?) Next bottom to top: ~Oct26 to Sept/Oct29 > (~1064days?) If we do live in a simulation, by this model, the bottom of this bearmarket will be somewhere in Oct/Nov this year. Drawdowns last 3 cycles: 2013-2015: -86.9% 2017-2018: -84.2% 2021-2022: 77.5 If we apply a similar softening trend (say, another ~6% drop), the 2025–2026 drawdown would likely land around: 77.5% - 6% = 71.5% & that would put $BTC around $36k-40k ATL in 2026. We will be exiting the accumulation zone somewhere in Oct27, +350 days after the bottom, like we did from Nov22 to Oct23. Based on this model, the next top for Bitcoin will be somewhere between $180,000 - $190,000 in Sept/Oct2029. The conclusion and investment thesis part, for investors who understand that Bitcoin is a longterm allocation: Potential CAGR for the next 3 years: ATL 2026 = ~$40,000 ATH 2029 = ~$190,000 Then the potential CAGR will be ~67.8% year from 2026 till 2029, beating by far #SP500 and most of the other TradFi assets. As all models, they work until they don't, so take this with a grain of salt, more like a potential guideline based of what happened till now. NotaBene: the indicator you see on the chart is Ichimoku, the only indicator I've been using for the past 10 years constantly and the red+green Clouds are just potential projections of its structures. If this helped frame your long-term thesis, hit that like & ReTweet 🫡

This might be February 2023, but you’re not ready for it I have no problem with people fading me these last few weeks while $BTC dropped -10% and $ETH -18% (so far). The problem I see in a lot of these takes is that they’re heavily biased to the upside, with no invalidation to the downside. Remember my own quote about Bitcoin: “One of BTC’s main properties is that it likes to prove people wrong, BOTH sides.” P.S: If you’re so sure we bottomed here, go long now and post your stop. Like I did when I went short last week 😉

It's Sunday, so don't forget to smile Don't take life and especially these markets so serious This Romanian classic goes to all my bitcoin:native permabulls 😅

Football and trading can teach us the same lessons. Rapid, 2nd in the table, against FCSB in 6th, so it looked like a guaranteed trade with Rapid even went 1-0 up early. The setup can be perfect and the early move can go your way, but the outcome isn't decided until the final whistle. Stay humble, respect the risk and never treat a "sure thing" like it can't go against you.

Local top on ETH confirmed ✅ Local top on BTC confirmed ✅ Listen to this cut from 5 days ago if you want to understand even more of the framework that got me here.

Nu avem educatie financiara pe Twitter in Romania, domne! Ba avem, si foarte multa, gratis, dar problema e ca inca multi sunt interesati doar de “in ce altcoin bag si eu bro sa fac 5-10x”, adica un tun, o combinatie ceva. Nu e sexy sa vorbesti despre zone de neutralitate, risk management, obligatiuni, lichiditate globala si cicluri monetare, pentru ca asta inseamna timp investit, studiu, rabdare si disciplina. In ultimele 4-6 saptamani pe asta am pus accent, in timp ce pe timeline vedeam mistouri ieftine la adresa celor care au indraznit sa puna un semn de intrebare dupa ultimele rallyuri pe BTC si ETH. Daca totusi te intereseaza sa intelegi cum functioneaza activele globale, cand si de ce se misca si ce corelatii sunt intre ele, citeste articolul de mai jos si vezi videoul cu ethereum:native de acum 10 zile. P.S: Price Action is KING 🫡 paradigmshiftnews.substack.c…

Grazie fratello, Honored to see this shoutout from you and especially to be included with my brother @i_am_jackis . For the people who don’t know him, Popeye is the sailor who will teach you how to navigate the seas, both in markets but also in real life.🫡

Ethereum has until November 4th to take out the highs Retard Fudder Sideliner And many other slurs, all while I just pointed out the local top that ethereum:native (and most likely Bitcoin) was/is printing. Watch the video below to refresh your memory

･ *ﾟ 　 ･ ﾟ* ･｡ *･｡ *.｡ ｡･ °*. F*ck your late crypto longs ｡｡ ･ ｡ ･ﾟ ｡°*. ｡*･｡･ *ﾟ 　 ･ ﾟ*

If OAS hits 4% we will see a correction in TradFi and most likely in Bitcoin and crypto. I don't make the rules and sorry doomers, I said correction not crash or your blackswan wet dream.

Bitcoin still stuck in the 80 - 87k range The reaction from the 80k area is normal > hence big green Support1 area. We are mid range here, so I still want to see a clear break above 87k on daily and weekly close before getting on the bullish short-term wagon. And onchain also confirms this as we can see in the latest @glassnode note: "A daily close above $87.5K, with ETF inflows repeating on rising volume, would show demand absorbing that supply. A daily close below $80K would put the average ETF and treasury holder at a loss and bring the True Market Mean near $77.6K into view."

As promised, the first live stream on Substack with my good friend @i_am_jackis , and we will be discussing macro, TradFi and of course Bitcoin and altcoins. The first of many if it will be demand and interest for it: substack.com/@jackis/note/p-…

OIL #WTI +15% Higher since the October post Clearing a major resistance as we speak and opening up the next big areas: $105 $109 and extended to $115 Will discuss about this and the impact on Indexes plus Bitcoin / crypto in a few hours with @i_am_jackis live on our substack streams: jackis.substack.com/ substack.com/@paradigmweekly

Tomorrow, live on Substack with @i_am_jackis Where markets stand, where we think they’re heading and your questions answered live. 18:30 Bucharest | 16:30 London | 11:30 NY