@MrArenge
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Director of Ops @PennPORES @Penn_FoxLeads | @NBCNews Elections Unit | Usually analyzing digital political ad data
Philadelphia, PA
Joined August 2013
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Been working on tracking the paid digital geotargeting efforts of the presidential campaigns for a while.
Here's a š§µ with latest update
Highly recommend digging into it all yourself with these dashboards:
TRUMP: aarenge.shinyapps.io/trump_gā¦
HARRIS/BIDEN: aarenge.shinyapps.io/biden_gā¦
MAGA INC. is also dropping a ton on Google ads as well (spending aligns with spending found on Facebook + Instagram political ads)
Here's their daily spending (sourced here: adstransparency.google.com/aā¦).
MAGA Inc. spent over $1M on Google ads on each of the last 4 days.
I think folks aren't quite getting the scale of this late GOTV spending from Maga Inc. It has only been spending for about a week on Facebook/Instagram.
Yet it is already the largest spender in last 90 days.
Our story from a few days ago as it began:
nytimes.com/2026/10/20/us/poā¦
Per spokesperson for Ventura County CA, hole has 2 purposes: help visually impaired find signature line (on flip side) & help ensure all aspects of ballot were removed from envelop
Envelopes are printed before ballots. Voters can fold ballot & put in envelope however they want
FWIW - Republican spend **significantly** less on paid Facebook + Instagram political ads trying to fundraise from small dollar donors than Democrats
Here's the thread with the trends from this year: xitter.cf/MrArenge/status/210571ā¦
Small-dollar donations to Republican candidates are just apocalyptic. Selected examples here.
Our forecasting research found in-state individual contributions are a strong predictor of results. Way stronger than PAC spending!
votehub.com/2026/10/24/2026-ā¦
Saw quite the uptick in Facebook/Instagram ad spending by Amy Acton after the Ramaswamy ad featuring her mom came out
In the last 7 days of data (Oct 16-Oct 22), 81% of the spending on Acton's pages was run nationwide
In the 7 days prior, ~43% of spending was run nationwide
The amount being spent daily on Facebook + Instagram political ads right now in Alaska, Kansas + Ohio is more than at any point over the last 7 years.
There are few other states (Iowa, Maine, Texas) that will likely join this list soon.
There's a group called SAM Action Fund that's running paid digital ads targeted at men under 30 highlighting how the Trump administration has not lived up to expectations
"We are not getting what we hoped we would get"
Ads are running in key Senate states: GA, IA, MI + NC
Total cumulative spending on Google political ads in 2026 has now essentially passed total cumulative spending on similar ads from 2024 (a presidential year!)
Using the min estimate of every ad in the the Google ad database, digital advertisers have spent ~$746M on these ads
We're seeing a very big uptick in spending on Facebook + Instagram political ads by Kalshi encouraging people to take positions on the upcoming elections
At this point, outside of the day of the 2024 presidential election, Kalshi is spending more daily than at any other moment
NEW: Talarico just started running this new paid digital ad on YouTube
The ad - which appears to be designed to mobilize Black voters - is being targeted at specific zip codes
Made an interactive with the zips targeted, so you can zoom in, here: rpubs.com/aarenge/talarico_zā¦
#TXSen
Really incredible analysis by @pettigrew_stats & John Lapinski looking at scenarios for control of the House. Highly recommend reading the article: nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elā¦
And there's a fun interactive showing how vote shifts impact seat count:
nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elā¦
Had the chance to talk with Steve Urlich for the PoliticsPA podcast earlier this week
Just the latest episode of āAndrew talks too fast on podcastsā
Someone once told me they usually listen to podcasts at 2x speed but had to put me at .5x speed š
youtu.be/m3iZiyTEreY?si=nVSaā¦
The NBC News early vote page indicates we're up to over 23M people participating in the midterms elections so far!
~80% of voters so far are essentially every year voters - they voted in both 2022 + 2024
You can see trends by state here: nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elā¦
DraftKings has started running ads on Facebook/Instagram encouraging people to take positions on the upcoming election (+2028)
This is the first time DraftKings has run paid Meta political ads about elections (Kalshi, Polymarket + Predictit have done this for a while)
Andrew Arenge retweeted
Oh good. The federal agents who showed up at a Florida early voting site were apparently hoping to vote, except THEY WEREN'T REGISTERED TO VOTE IN THAT COUNTY AND DIDN'T REALIZE THEY COULDN'T VOTE THERE.
Federal agents who don't know how voting works. Terrific.
Ken Paxton's campaign started running this new paid digital ad statewide in Teas on YouTube yesterday.
It goes after James Talarico for being anti-oil & anti-beef.
#TXSen
This video is not in any of the paid digital advertising databases (at least not yet)
Which means the campaign isnāt paying to get this message in front of people - and it wonāt necessarily be seen by people outside of the platforms where they natively shared it
NEW AD: Have you seen these anti-Talarico attack ads?
Elon Musk paid for nearly all of them.
The world's first trillionaire knows if he drags the most corrupt politician in Texas across the finish line, Ken Paxton will owe him everything.
@ElonMusk: Texas is not for sale.
Andrew Arenge retweeted
Very excited we can announce this: NBC will be live for **13 hours** on Election Night/overnight, starting at 5pm.
And....concurrent with this...I am going to be doing the livestream!! That will go up at 5:30 and I'll stay on all night with results, results, results.
This is only happening because so many of you tuned in and helped us spread the word this primary season. Can't thank you all enough for that. I really hope you'll join us for what is going to be an epic, all-night experience - and again help us spread the word far and wide! Can't wait for 11/3!
.@NBCNews Presents āDecision ā26ā: The Networkās Most Extensive Midterms Coverage Ever, with Record 13 Hours of Live Broadcast Programming and 24/7 Updates and Analysis Across Digital
Coverage begins Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 5 p.m. ET and continues until Wednesday, Nov. 4 at 6 a.m. ET.
At 6:30 p.m. ET, @SavannahGuthrie, @LlamasNBC, @kwelkernbc, @HallieJackson and @SteveKornacki will lead primetime network coverage.
nbcuniversalnewsgroup.com/nbā¦
There's 2 versions of the ad from the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign featuring Amy Acton's in the Google data
It appears that the ad hasn't run on Google's platforms since last night at 10:14 PM (PST)\
(Other ads from his campaign have clearly run today)
Links below
#OHGov
