Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) header
Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) profile picture

Author of the Ukraine Decoded newsletter on Substack. Former Ukrainian news reporter. Veteran officer of the Ukraine Army.

United States
Joined October 2020
Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)Photo by Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko)
Latest in the Ukraine Decoded newsletter 📰 "Aerial Escalation Before November 2026 Peace Talks." Russia and Ukraine demonstrate they can inflict impressive pain from the air. But neither can seize or liberate significant new territory. ukrainedecoded.substack.com/… Subscribe to Ukraine Decoded! Enjoy the special 20% discount for new subscribers for the first 12 months.
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Ceasefire ended. The mutually destructive and unwinnable war between Russia and Ukraine goes on, as usual.
❗️The ceasefire, which was in effect from October 27 to November 1, has ended. This was an important step in our joint humanitarian efforts with Russian Human Rights Commissioner Yana Lantratova, coordinated by First Lady of the United States Melania Trump @FLOTUS Throughout this period, both sides honoured their commitments. This made it possible to deliver humanitarian aid to Oleshky and help civilians who wished to leave the city safely. We are now working together with Yana Lantratova to explore opportunities for further humanitarian initiatives. It is important to maintain this mechanism of cooperation so that we can continue helping people and saving lives.
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One more able-bodied man had been sent to defend his Homeland. Ukraine authorities finally, after almost 5 years of the war draft evasion, caught and mobilized to the war Ostap Stahkiv, a popular local blogger and social media influencer from Lviv. For many years, he was demonized by the local press and selectively persecuted for various reasons. It includes persecution in a criminal case for "alleged disclosure of military locations." Stakhiv earned a badge of a Conservative influencer for being a vocal critic of, for example, Covid vaccinations and President Zelensky's policies. He also taught men of how to legally avoid the war draft, printed and disseminated fake journalist IDs to flood and spam the press conferences, etc.
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People of Oleshky, Ukraine.
People are very happy that they managed to leave Oleshky. They are safe now. ☝️Our people are sharing their emotions and talking about everything they have been through. Their pets are also with them on the buses. They managed to bring their beloved animals out of Oleshky too. Along the way, local residents are coming out to welcome them. Even in the evening, people stand by the roads, waving their hands and greeting the buses. They are happy to see the buses coming through. For those who have been through so much, seeing this kind of support means a lot. Thank you to everyone who comes out to meet them, who waits for them and welcomes our people. It means so much.
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Cautios cautiousness. "I don't know if negotiated peace is achievable in #Ukraine. That's what we're trying to find out ... I don't think anyone here is claiming that we're on the verge of a negotiated settlement." -- Marco Rubio, US State Secretary, November 1, 2026. Source: RFE/RL rferl.org/a/rubio-atlanta-uk…
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The starting point.
A RENEWED SPIRIT The ceasefire across Oleshky and the surrounding Kherson region has provided residents with the freedom to move, access to food, clean water, medicine, plus a renewed sense of dignity without the constant threat of attack. Let Oleshky become the starting point for lasting peace.
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Life philosophy simplified.
Elon Musk shares an incredibly important lesson about avoiding wishful thinking and making better decisions “One of the biggest mistakes people generally make, and I'm guilty of it too, is wishful thinking” You ignore the real truth because of what you want to be true. It's a very difficult trap to avoid The best approach is to accept that you're wrong to some degree and make it your goal to become less wrong over time And actively seek critical feedback, especially from friends. The people who care about you want the best for you, but they often hesitate to tell you the things you need to hear
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Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian President, said today that Putin would pick up the phone if the Ukrainian President called. "I think that he will answer the phone call, of course. Putin never rejected conversations," Ushakov said, noting that Zelensky is also invited to Moscow to see Putin. Recently, Zelensky said sarcastically that he would go to Moscow only "on a rocket." Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia have been at war for almost 5 years, and multiple attempts to mediate peace didn’t bear fruit.
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Today, the Ukrainian attack drones hit the next #Lukoil's oil refinery inside #Russia -- NizhegorodNefteOrg Sintez which is situated in Kstovo town, Nizhegorodskaya Oblast.
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Today, Russian tactical aviation destroyed the building of the mayor's office in Kramatorsk, the Ukraine-held industrial city situated close to the frontline in the contested eastern Donbas region. Since 2022, Moscow has demanded that Kyiv leave this city and the entire Donbas as a precondition to end the invasion/war. (The photo provided by Olexander Honcharenko)
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High hopes for the greater ceasefire and then the peace settlement for #Ukraine.
HOPE FOR SUSTAINABLE PEACE Oleshky proves we can raise humanity above war. Together, we can build a peaceful planet, a world of promise for our children.
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Interesting 🤔
ELON MUSK: PHONES AND APPS WILL BE GONE IN 5-6 YEARS Elon Musk says we will not have phones in the traditional sense anymore. What we call a phone will become an edge node for AI inference, especially AI video. There will be no operating systems and no apps. It will just be a device for the screen and audio. You will get everything through AI. Whatever you can think of, or whatever the AI thinks you might want, it will show you. Most of what people consume in 5 or 6 years, maybe sooner, will be AI-generated content like music and videos. People have already made AI videos with Grok Imagine that are several minutes long and pretty coherent. The phone will just display the pixels and make the sounds that the AI anticipates you would most like to receive.
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If Ukraine exists by 2030. It has little chance, given current Russian bombardments and the constant refusal to compromise from both sides.
UPDATE!! The U.S. Patriot PAC-3 announcement comes with a major caveat: these are new missiles, with deliveries not expected until after 2030, sources tell me. It does little to address Ukraine’s urgent interceptor shortage ahead of winter 1/3
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All four evacuation aircraft carrying hundreds of residents of Russia-occupied Oleshky city, in the southern war-torn Kherson Oblast of Ukraine, landed in Belarus today, according to the Kyiv official. Their next destination is Ukraine. The temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that enabled the evacuation of trapped Ukrainian residents (who suffered from hunger, dehydration, and cold) became possible after an intervention and mediation by US First Lady Melania Trump. Interestingly, most of the Oleshky residents expressed desire to be evacuated to Ukraine, while only a small group desired to move to Russia who brought war to their city.
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Poland went too far.
The events unfolding tonight at Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal are very serious indeed. We appear to be witnessing an unprecedented confrontation over the government’s use of state power and the independence and authority of a constitutional institution. Both sides offer sharply different accounts of what happened and why. Whatever the facts ultimately establish, thousands gathering outside the Tribunal make an already dangerous situation more combustible. The last thing Poland needs is a confrontation that spirals into something far worse. America is on Poland’s side. It is not our place to judge or interfere in its internal affairs. Our concern is for the stability, security, and democratic future of a country we are proud to call our friend and ally. I hope everyone involved—government officials, law enforcement, and demonstrators alike, to take a deep breath, and don’t take any action that could provoke violence or further escalation. Americans and @POTUS care deeply about this country, its democracy, and its future. But Poland’s strength ultimately must come from within—from its people, its institutions, and their shared commitment to the rule of law. Poland has come too far and accomplished too much to let political differences, no matter how strongly felt, put any of that at risk.
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Russian oil refineries are under Ukrainian attack.
Ukrainian drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Samara, Russia: at least 11 fires were reported there. In total, more than 1,000 drones attacked Russia overnight, one of the largest strikes of the entire war.
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It's basically a coup when President is not in the country.
🇵🇱 Poland's pro-EU Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has ordered a raid on the offices of the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw, prompting President Karol Nawrocki to turn his plane around mid-flight. The court is responsible for ensuring that parliamentary legislation complies with the Polish Constitution.
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