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🎯 NRL Backyard Bets NRL insights from the backyard — data-driven picks, sharp stats & try scorer value. No fluff, just footy & facts. #NRLBets #PuntSmart

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Joined July 2025
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Best win I’ve ever had as a punter 🏆 2019 NRL Top Try Scorer — Maika Sivo Idea came from a mate (mate that lost the 20 legga) We did the homework. Then went all in. Biggest hurdles: • Would Brad Arthur pick him Round 1? All signs said yes. • There was no market — we literally rang books and asked them to price it. He opened 150/1. We piled in: 150s, 130s… even grabbed some around ~25/1 during the season, we didn't need to stake that much! Came down to the final round: Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sivo was 1 try behind Ken Maumalo. We booked 12 tickets at the Cumberland Lounge, shouted a bunch of our tradies along. Confidence high… then halftime hits — no Sivo tries. Second half? 💥 Hat-trick. Game over....was an awesome night (man I drank some beer) Between us we cleaned up around ~$70k. I lost $1500 covering a Maumalo hat-trick hedge against the Raiders (never happened)… Who's your 2026 top try scorer? #NRL #NRLBetting #Punters #BackyardBets #LongOdds
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Ricky Ponting weighs in on Saint George in the Cup
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Tetairoa McMillan · Receptions · Last 20 games
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Panthers @ Packers 📷 Carolina Panthers · Passing yards allowed · Last 20 games
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Holy shit it appears there may be a coverup happening in real time involving FanDuel and Rob Gronkowksi. The account CodyBrownBets has been called out for being a corporate account pretending to be a person based on patents. The government links to these patents are now being used in community notes on Cody’s posts to provide evidence he’s not a real person (or is and sold his account to be controlled by someone else). The Cody account denied the allegations last night and then once the post was hit with community notes last night containing the patents, the post was deleted [An attempt to kill the community note?] This is a problem for FanDuel because it collaborates with CodyBrownBets all the time. There are allegations that FanDuel, or its close partners, control the account in order to artificially engineer bets from the public on certain teams to balance its books. Rob Gronkowki collaborated with CodyBrownBets and some of the evidence of that has been deleted too - attached is evidence that still exists (for now). It’s certainly possible Gronk and FD have done nothing wrong, but it’s time for them to answer questions about their knowledge and relationship with the CodyBrownBets account. Also if Cody is a real human, now would be a good time to finally show his face. Let’s hope a former NFL player isn’t knowingly helping FD deceive millions of fans.
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Good luck falling asleep after this one
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Sign him up @RamsNFL
A $3M STRIKE AND HE NAILS IT 😱
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Been one of those weeks on the punt...started with an overweight field goal kicker from the RAMS, needed Hamiso to score 1 more try in a 14 try romp, new racing model had the first 3 winners at Caufield backed none at $14, $14 and $21 then we have the King 1st Tempted 2nd and Jolliestar Top 5 multi....love it 🤣
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Rams release K Harrison Mevis. (via @RapSheet, @MikeGarafolo)
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NFL EXPOSED THEMSELVES #itsbtidy
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I’ve had plenty bad beats in my time 🤷‍♂️ Trust in the Rams is goooone!
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I new there was improvement coming in 2026....just not this much! Go the Knights!
Tried to quantify the impact of Ponga, Lucas & Sharpe on Newcastle's 2025 season — here's what the data says 🧵 After adjusting for opposition strength across 24 games: ▸ All 3 playing (8 games): try neutral +0.01/game ▸ Partial availability (9 games): -1.51/game ▸ None playing (7 games): -4.87/game That's a +4.87 try swing (~28pts) between having all 3 vs none. Lucas in particular looks like the defensive anchor — when he's missing early season (with Ponga & Sharpe still playing) conceded jumps from 3.25 to 4.25 per game. Holds that left edge together defensively. Sharpe is the try machine at 0.79/game. Ponga's impact shows more in the defensive shape than the raw scoring numbers. Small sample caveat — only 8 games with all 3 in 2025. But the trend is consistent even after adjusting for who they played. If all 3 stay fit in 2026, the Knights may look very different. Availability is everything.
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🏆 GRAND FINAL 24-HOUR UPDATE 🐓 Roosters • Benaiah Ioelu joins the bench after Connor Watson was denied clearance • Egan Butcher remains as the reserve • Daly Cherry-Evans will become the oldest player in GF history in his final NRL game, breaking Cameron Smith's record 🛡️ Knights • Harrison Graham into the starting side for the suspended Phoenix Crossland, with Kyle McCarthy joining the bench • Thomas Cant could still start at hooker with Graham off the bench • Diesel Hagan remains in the squad, still a chance to debut • Bradman Best is fine after sitting out Wednesday's training as a precaution
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Jameis Winston on being Giants starter: “I gathered the guys and said, if one man has one crab leg he’s a mere mortal. But if that same man has 53 crab legs he’s an unstoppable force.”
🤖 Made with AI
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NFL Week 2 tally @ Pinnacle: ✔️ Favorites went 11-5 straight up 🤝 Favorites/underdogs went 8-8 ATS ⬇️ Unders went 10-6 Season to date: ✔️ Favorites are 23-9 straight up ✔️ Favorites are 17-16 ATS ⬇️ Unders are 17-14-1
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DOUBLE CHEEKED IS CRAZY
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Lavinia Tauhalaliku ✅ Payton Takimoana ✅ Stacey Waaka ✅ Cassie Staples ✅ Mele Hufanga ✅ Marewakiterangi Samson ✅ Anastasia Sekene ❌ Jada Taylor ✅ Quincy Dodd - Long Shot ✅ You should have made piles of 💰
🏉 TRYSCORER EV REPORT | NRLW ROUND 10 Anytime Tryscorer | Model vs Market Top 8, ranked by try probability Warriors vs Sharks | Go Media Stadium Lavinia Tauhalaliku | Warriors | Left Wing | 78.9% Payton Takimoana | Warriors | Right Wing | 55.5% Stacey Waaka | Warriors | Right Centre | 51.3% Cassie Staples | Sharks | Left Wing | 45.6% Mele Hufanga | Warriors | Left Centre | 41.5% Marewakiterangi Samso | Sharks | Right Wing | 35.4% Anastasia Sekene | Warriors | Fullback | 34.1% Jada Taylor | Sharks | Fullback | 33.6% Long Shot 🎯 Quincy Dodd | Sharks | Hooker | 24.2%
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Long Shot 🎯 Quincy Dodd ✅ $6.00
🏉 TRYSCORER EV REPORT | NRLW ROUND 10 Anytime Tryscorer | Model vs Market Top 8, ranked by try probability Warriors vs Sharks | Go Media Stadium Lavinia Tauhalaliku | Warriors | Left Wing | 78.9% Payton Takimoana | Warriors | Right Wing | 55.5% Stacey Waaka | Warriors | Right Centre | 51.3% Cassie Staples | Sharks | Left Wing | 45.6% Mele Hufanga | Warriors | Left Centre | 41.5% Marewakiterangi Samso | Sharks | Right Wing | 35.4% Anastasia Sekene | Warriors | Fullback | 34.1% Jada Taylor | Sharks | Fullback | 33.6% Long Shot 🎯 Quincy Dodd | Sharks | Hooker | 24.2%
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