DR (@N_F_Tweeter) header
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England, United Kingdom
Joined March 2021
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Anyone bought the FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF (VALL) for their ISA of Pension? Financial advisors and money folks out there, would this be a good fund to invest in over the next 10 years?
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TRUTH BOMB ALERT I can’t tell you how to get rich, that’s a mix of luck, timing, and hard work, but I can tell you how rich people STAY rich: - They buy assets and do nothing If you want to test a politician's integrity, ask them to explain inflation, whether they should be eliminating it and how they will do it. The chart below shows the problem: - Yellow line = CPI (the government’s BS version of the cost of living) - Other lines = real assets: Gold, House Prices, the S&P 500, Bitcoin Here are the growth factors from 1995 → 2024: - CPI: 2.02× - Wages: 2.27× - House prices: 5.27× - Gold: 6.17× - S&P 500: 10.33× Bitcoin launched in 2009 so I am holding off on that, but it is another tool which protects against inflation. Now for wage growth - 2.27×, barely above inflation. So what is the conclusion - assets crush both wages and inflation. The do nothing strategy, it is magic! If you don’t own assets, you’re treading water. But it gets worse, if CPI actually included the real cost of participating in society (housing, energy, childcare, transport) you wouldn’t even be treading water, you’d be sinking. You know how everything feels more expensive - yeah that is this. Can't get on the housing ladder - yeah that is this. Rich guy bought another Porsche - yeah that is this. That gap, the gap between CPI and asset prices, is where wealth inequality is created. It is a transfer of money from the poor and middle-class to the rich. Asset holders get rich off morons in government, you know the virtuous free stuff politics. Non-asset holders get poorer. These are the numbers. This is the system. Facts don't care about you feelings. And any politician who can’t explain it, or won’t fix it, is a fraud. Anyone who says "tax the rich" and think this is done with the tax code is a moron.
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Bitcoin is not a speculative toy anymore… it has become a leading signal for global risk. Hear me out. Bitcoin isn’t following the market anymore… Bitcoin is the market’s early warning system. It isn’t sliding because crypto is weak… it’s sliding because it has become the canary in the global risk coal mine. The crowd still thinks stocks set the mood… but Bitcoin is now front-running every high beta asset on the board. ETF outflows… regulatory pressure… a tightening dollar- Bitcoin reacts to these shifts hours or even days before tech stocks blink. That’s why the volatility feels extreme. It’s not noise. It’s signal. Institutions treat BTC as the first place where risk sentiment cracks… and the first place where it heals. Retail still thinks Bitcoin follows Nasdaq. The truth is starting to turn the other way. Most traders miss this part. Bitcoin isn’t lagging the system… it’s reading it. And when the liquidity current flips, it will flip here first… long before the crowd realises what changed. #BitcoinOG #CryptoMarket
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McRib is back.
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🙏🏻
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🚨 @RayDalio just dropped one of the most important macro warnings of this cycle. He always goes deep in his analysis and that’s why I respect him immensely for his work. Here is a short summary & what it means for #Bitcoin: THE OBVIOUS: The Fed is about to end QT and start QE again. But this time, it’s not “QE to save the economy”! It’s QE into a bubble — and that changes everything. When the Fed usually launches QE, it’s during crisis: Markets are falling, credit markets are frozen, liquidity is gone. QE then acts as rescue money — printing liquidity to rebuild confidence. But this time is different. The economy is still strong, stocks are at highs, credit spreads are tight, unemployment is low, inflation is above target, and AI stocks are in full mania. So what happens when the Fed starts printing money into that environment? It’s no longer “stimulus into a depression.” It’s stimulus into a mania. Liquidity will flood already overheated markets. That means: stocks melt up, gold rips, and #crypto… goes vertical ;) Because crypto is pure global liquidity beta — it reacts first and fastest. Expect the usual sequence: BTC → ETH → high caps → memes → chaos. Short-term (next 6–12 months): 1 - Massive liquidity wave 2 - Inflation hedge narrative returns 3 - “Money printer go brrr” becomes real again 4 - Speculative euphoria across AI, tech, and crypto NOT SO OBVIOUS: But long-term (late 2026–2027?): 🔴 Inflation reignites 🔴 Fed forced to tighten again 🔴 Bubble pops violently That’s exactly what Dalio means when he says “QE into a bubble.” It’s the final, euphoric stage of the Big Debt Cycle — the part that feels like prosperity but ends in reset. So yes — it’s extremely bullish for crypto and bitcoin in the short term. Probably the most bullish setup since 2020. But it’s not “forever money.” It’s the last big wave before the tide turns. So make sure you make all the money you can before things go south!!!
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Bad news is turning into good news again… and yes, we just need a bit more patience. The government shutdown and layoffs data look ugly, but they’re a blessing in disguise. When jobs weaken and cash flow slows, the system bends. That’s when the Treasury quietly steps in… draining its account, restarting credit flow, and setting up the next wave of liquidity. The latest layoffs came in around 153,000 for October 2025, the highest October figure in over 2 decades. Once this number crosses 200,000 plus, the Treasury’s General Account should start bending lower, the real signal that liquidity is flowing back into the system. And here’s the kicker… QT officially ends on 1 December. This is the pain that forces the print (not literal money printing but credit creation and liquidity quietly returning through the back door). We’re still waiting for that turn, the TGA chart below shows it’s still rising and we want it to go down. The moment it starts falling, Bitcoin will sniff it first. #BitcoinOG #CryptoMarket
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THE $6 TRILLION ENDGAME NOBODY SAW COMING November 6, 2025 - Bitcoin just flashed the exact signature that preceded every parabolic explosion in history, and 99% of market participants are looking the wrong way. 29.2% of supply now underwater. Not a collapse signal. A launch sequence. This number has appeared three times before: May 2017 before the run to $19,800. May 2021 before $69,000. March 2024 at $40,000 before the vault to $73,000. Each time: 150% to 400% gains within six months. Each time: the crowd called the top. Each time: they were catastrophically wrong. Here’s what’s actually happening beneath the noise: $19 billion in leveraged positions just vaporized. Perpetual open interest collapsed 42% … from $58 billion to $33.6 billion. The entire derivatives complex has been sterilized. Funding rates: 0.01%. Neutral. Clean. No more forced sellers. No more cascade risk. While retail capitulated, long-term holders absorbed 14.4 million BTC … 70% of circulating supply … and refuse to sell. Institutions quietly stacked $149 billion through ETFs. Stablecoins expanded $50 billion since July, dry powder waiting on the sidelines. Financial conditions just hit their loosest level since Q1 2022 … the exact moment before crypto’s last mega-cycle ignited. The April 2024 halving cut Bitcoin issuance to 3.125 BTC per block. Annual inflation: under 1%. Stock-to-flow ratio: 46,666 … the highest scarcity level in Bitcoin’s existence. Meanwhile global M2 money supply: $105 trillion and climbing. Fiat debasement: accelerating. The mathematics are ruthless: infinite claims chasing finite supply. Exchange deposits spiked 18% as weak hands dumped at $99,000. Realized price clusters forming titanium support at $95,000-$103,000. Every seller at these levels is transferring coins to entities that will not sell for years. This is not hope. This is hydraulics. When leverage purges, structure resets, and liquidity activates, price doesn’t ask permission … it gaps. The pattern has repeated with mechanical precision across four cycles. The probabilities are not equal. History doesn’t repeat but it rhymes with terrifying accuracy. What breaks this: a macro cataclysm pushing loss ratios above 35%, sustained ETF hemorrhaging beyond $2 billion weekly, or geopolitical rupture. Absent those black swans, the path is carved. The crowd sees 30% pain. Engineers see the compressed spring. The next 180 days will separate those who studied the architecture from those who followed sentiment. Not financial advice. Pattern recognition. The signal is live.
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Potential 'W' bottoms in Bollinger Band terms in $ETHUSD and $SOLUSD, but not in $BTCUSD. Gonna be time to pay attention soon I think.
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Alts are lagging. They won't be much longer.
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$110k by mid Oct
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What did I say?
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JUST IN: 📺 Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says #Bitcoin could "take out the topside" if President Trump "makes a move on the Fed...and [the market structure bill] gets passed." 🎙️ Most likely scenario is we're "rangey between $120K and $125K."
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BTC had a great push up above $114k yesterday, only to lose it all on more tariff and China news. BUT! The good news is that BTC's upper wick has "paved the way" for the price to revisit yesterday's highs today! I still expect BTC to make its way up to $130k by the end of this month. Combined stablecoin dominance pushed higher yesterday on the pullback, but it also printed a second TBO Close Long on the 4h time frame- just like it did preceding every other pullback (which led to a rally for BTC and ALTs!). Gold had a HUGE drop of -5% yesterday- the biggest since 2020. But is Gold's sell-off going to fuel BTC's pump? I don't think so, but you'll have to watch to know why. LOTS of ALTs printed more TBO Close Shorts yesterday: ADA, HYPE, BCH, SUI, HBAR, SHIB, CRO, ETC, ALGO, PENGU, RENDER, IMX, SPX6900, FTN and SAROS. These are early bullish reversal warnings, and many charts are seeing their second printed this week. 2Z, FLOKI, 0G and VSN all have new TBT Bullish Divergences that should be watched. And I personally think FLOKI will start pushing back higher and pumping again so long as Elon keeps mentioning it, like he did in 2020 with DOGE. BNB, MNT, TWT and BORG printed TBO Close Longs on yesterday's daily candle closes- a bearish reversal warning. PUMP and DASH are still worth watching and paying attention to.
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CARDANO HAS NEVER BEEN DOWN
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Last Friday delivered one of the worst altcoin wipeouts in crypto history, and the post-mortem of it has been a whisper. When LUNA blew up, it owned the news. When FTX collapsed, it ruled the cycle. When we had our COVID crash, Crypto Twitter couldn’t stop talking about how we almost went to zero and what saved us. But this time, a week later, there’s near silence. Instead, we’re told it was just a tweet. That’s not serious analysis. Yes, late Friday, Trump dropped a trade-war headline after U.S. markets closed: 100% tariffs on China and new export controls. That was the spark. But a single tweet doesn’t send alts down 70% in minutes or vaporize entire portfolios within an hour. The violence came from structure, from a breakdown deep in crypto’s plumbing. During the flush, Ethena’s synthetic dollar, USDe (ticker USDe), printed as low as $0.65 on Binance while holding near $1 on other venues. This wasn’t a global depeg. It appears to have been a Binance-local pricing failure, an oracle and order-book divergence that instantly slashed collateral values for users on Binance’s unified margin system. When your collateral is repriced that far down on a single venue, everything built on it collapses. On Binance’s unified / cross-margin system, traders can post multiple assets, including USDe and wrapped tokens, as collateral across all their open positions. When Binance’s feed suddenly marks USDe at $0.65 instead of $1.00, the user’s collateral value shrinks, maintenance ratios blow up, and the liquidation engine begins selling their other assets, often high-beta alts, into an already collapsing market. Those forced sells push prices lower, triggering more liquidations across the exchange and, through arbitrage, across the entire crypto market. Example: Imagine a trader with $200,000 total equity. $50,000 in USDe collateral $150,000 in long altcoin positions Binance marks USDe at $0.65, so that $50,000 becomes $32,500; In this case, $17,500 in margin cushion vanishes instantly. The system detects the shortfall and auto-liquidates part of the alt positions to rebalance. Those sells slam into thin order books, driving alt prices down another 20–30% almost instantly. Now the trader’s remaining alts, which weren’t yet liquidated, are worth even less, cutting collateral ratios further and triggering the next round of liquidations. Each liquidation dump pushes prices down for everyone else using the same assets as collateral, igniting a chain reaction. By the time the loop finishes, hundreds of millions in positions are forcibly sold, and the cascade becomes self-fueling, a liquidation spiral that consumes everything in its path. What started as a local pricing glitch becomes a global liquidity collapse. Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes summed it up perfectly: “USDe didn’t depeg. Binance did.” The Ethena protocol remained solvent and over-collateralized. The problem was the venue’s internal feeds and book structure under stress. When an exchange values collateral based on its own shallow order book instead of a broad market reference, small cracks become sinkholes. This doesn’t absolve Ethena, any asset printing 35% below peg, even locally, shows fragility. But this wasn’t another LUNA. It was a mechanical failure, a venue-specific collateral mispricing colliding with excessive leverage and opaque cross-margin rules. The result was one of the largest liquidation waves in crypto history, nearly $19 billion in forced unwinds within 24 hours. That doesn’t happen from headlines. It occurs when margin engines and oracles fail under stress. Binance has since promised to compensate affected users and rework how wrapped and synthetic assets are priced. That alone is an admission something broke. And yet, this event has been largely swept under the rug thus far. We’ve seen bigger macro shocks before: Liberation Day, COVID, and even FTX contagion, yet none triggered alts to implode 70–99% in an hour. This wasn’t fear. It was faulty design. One venue’s pricing feed dislocated, collateral collapsed, and liquidation engines spread that contagion everywhere. The industry’s core issue is now undeniable: Too many opaque, venue-specific risk systems govern leverage, collateral, and liquidation. When one breaks, the entire system pays for it. Design flaws, not tweets, keep blowing up the market. If this reconstruction is wrong, then @binance and @cz_binance should publish the data: Which feeds broke and when? Which collateral assets were hair-cut, and how many users were liquidated? How is the compensation being calculated? And @ethena should release a venue-by-venue chart showing USDe pricing, redemptions, and hedging during the event, to prove solvency and pinpoint where the break occurred. Roughly $19 billion didn’t vanish into thin air. People were liquidated, portfolios erased, and careers ended because the pipes broke. If this wasn’t the cause, prove it. If it was, fix it. Because headlines aren’t destroying crypto, it’s being destroyed by its own infrastructure. This can’t be another story buried under “macro fear.” The silence is the loudest signal of all. Systems failed. Users paid the price. And the industry owes them an explanation. If we don’t fix the plumbing now, the following “tweet” could light the same fuse, and eventually, there might not be much left to save. Because if a tweet can burn $19 billion, it’s not the tweet that’s the problem; it’s the system.
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Cardano is going to break the internet
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If $ADA hits $1 in the next 24 hours, I'll send 1 person who reposts this a JRNYER on Cardano NFT (around 800 ADA) and a mystery bag of Cardano altcoins Browse the Cardano collection here: jpg.store/collection/jrnyclu…
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If I wake up tomorrow and Cardano is above $1, I’ll gift someone in the comments a lifetime membership to the CCV Intelligence system. Almost 40 proprietary risk models, exit planner, autonomous AI, and more back there! Tons of members pouring in! Like, share, comment! 🚀
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BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US House officially passes 'Genius Act' crypto stablecoin bill.
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