Former central banker and capital market specialist commenting on markets, politics and other major topics
Joined October 2012
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Neil Grossman retweeted
The Fed just paused rate hikes while expanding its balance sheet, with core PCE (inflation) yoy running at 3.1% vs. 1.5% in 2019. It has been above the central bank's beloved (sarcasm) 2% target since March 2021; facts are facts.
*Bloomberg terminal data.
Neil Grossman retweeted
The Jews in the diaspora are obsessed with the Israeli elections because they are still operating from a misguided and dangerous view that antizionsim is a product of Israeli leadership or government decisions. If only we had a progressive prime minister, if only we had a government that is palatable to the editorial board at the New York Times, all is this will go away.
See below:
Neil Grossman retweeted
Over the last 10 years, US Federal Government Tax Revenue has increased 65% to $5.4 Trillion while Government Spending has increased 92% to $7.4 Trillion.
The result: a more than doubling of the US National Debt from $19.8 trillion to $40.4 trillion.
Neil Grossman retweeted
🚨 SHOTS FIRED NEAR JEWISH SUMMER CAMP: Nathan Hewett, 36, fired roughly 20 rounds from a semi-automatic rifle near Camp Modin in Maine, sending 400+ campers and staff into lockdown.
Shell casings suggested shots may have been fired toward the camp’s basketball court.
Deputies seized 23 firearms from Hewett, who was suspected of antisemitic bias.
He was arrested but is shockingly already out on bail.
Neil Grossman retweeted
We keep telling you: the top 10% of NYC taxpayers pay roughly two-thirds of the city's personal income taxes. When you attack the people who create jobs and pay the overwhelming share of the taxes that fund city services, don't act surprised when they leave. #OpenPrimaries
Morgan Stanley picks Dallas for expansion outside NYC - stepping up Wall Street exodus following Mamdani election: 'Wake-up call' trib.al/1wkXLrA
Neil Grossman retweeted
In Buddhism we understand that every action comes with a consequence. Due to my decision to stand up for my Jewish friends I am losing a few people from my life. Today I parted company with Tony Pontius who has run my record label BGP for a number of years. I wanted to release 'We Will Dance Again' but he was unequivocal and said 'I want nothing to do with this song' and I responded 'ok, we are done'.
When someone is gutless it really does not hurt to say goodbye. My faith in humanity will not diminish and the truth will always win.
I will release it!
Neil Grossman retweeted
So, I was looking for material on the 24-cell and stumbled across this arXiv paper that might be of interest to my physicists friends, titled 'Quantum Spacetime Imprints: The 24-Cell, Standard Model Symmetry and its Flavor Mixing by Farag Ali.
The paper argues that the 24 cell ''both act as as the quantum of spacetime and as a geometric representation of elementary particles''.
This is an ''exploratory framework'' and a fun paper to read, not too sure that this is the correct one, but I'm sure many of my physicists friends will find it at least fun to check out!
🔗👇👇👇
Neil Grossman retweeted
When I was in school in the 80’s they taught us to hate communism.
Now they are teaching our youth communism is good.
WTF happened.
Neil Grossman retweeted
"There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism-by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide."
— Ayn Rand
Neil Grossman retweeted
Happy 96th birthday to Professor Thomas Sowell, one of the greatest thinkers of our time and the undisputed king of the epigram! In his honor, here are twenty of his most famous quotes:
1. “Nearly a hundred years of the supposed ‘legacy of slavery’ found most black children being raised in two-parent families in 1960. But thirty years after the liberal welfare state found the great majority of black children being raised by a single parent. The murder rate among blacks in 1960 was one-half of what it became 20 years later, after a legacy of liberals’ law enforcement policies.” (A Legacy of Liberalism)
2. “Public housing projects in the first half of the 20th century were clean, safe places, where people slept outside on hot summer nights, when they were too poor to afford air conditioning. That was before admissions standards for public housing projects were lowered or abandoned, in the euphoria of liberal non-judgmental notions. And it was before the toxic message of victimhood was spread by liberals. We all know what hell holes public housing has become in our times.” (A Legacy of Liberalism)
3. “The blacks in the West Indies had all sorts of experiences growing their food, selling the surplus in the market, and being responsible for budgeting what they had. Black slaves in the United States were deliberately kept from having that. Dependence was seen as the key to holding the slaves down. Ironically, that same principle comes up in the welfare state 100 years later.”
4. “If we wanted to be serious about evidence, we might compare where blacks stood a hundred years after the end of slavery with where they stood after 30 years of the liberal welfare state. Despite the grand myth that black economic progress began or accelerated with the passage of the civil rights laws and ‘war on poverty’ programs of the 1960s, the cold fact is that the poverty rate among blacks fell from 87 percent in 1940 to 47 percent by 1960. This was before any of those programs began.” (A Legacy of Liberalism)
5. “What the welfare system and other kinds of governmental programs are doing is paying people to fail. Insofar as they fail, they receive the money. In so far as they succeed, even to a moderate extent, the money is taken away.” (Free to Choose, 1980)
6. “The way the [welfare] programs are organized, poor people are only paid to do things that are counter-productive, such as breaking up their families, such as not earning above a certain level of income.”
7. “The welfare state is the oldest con game in the world. First you take people’s money away quietly, and then you give some of it back to them flamboyantly.”
8. “Not since the days of slavery have there been so many people who feel entitled to what other people have produced as there are in the modern welfare state, whether in Western Europe or on this side of the Atlantic.”
9. “The more people who are dependent on government handouts, the more votes the left can depend on for an ever-expanding welfare state. Although the big word on the left is ‘compassion,’ the big agenda on the left is dependency.”
10. “Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what worked with what sounded good. In area after area, crime, education, housing, race relations, the situation has gotten worse after the bright new theories were put into operation. The amazing thing is that this history of failure and disaster has neither discouraged the social engineers nor discredited them.” (Is Reality Optional?)
11. “The most fundamental fact about the ideas of the political left is that they do not work. Therefore, we should not be surprised to find the left concentrated in institutions where ideas do not have to work in order to survive.”
12. “Socialism is a wonderful idea. It is only as a reality that it has been disastrous. Among people of every race, color, and creed, all around the world, socialism has led to hunger in countries that used to have surplus food to export.”
13. “As long as human beings are imperfect, there will always be arguments for extending the power of government to deal with these imperfections. The only logical stopping place is totalitarianism, unless we realize that tolerating imperfections is the price of freedom.” (Ever Wonder Why?)
14. “The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.”
15. “It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.”
16. “Life in general has never been even close to fair, so the pretense that the government can make it fair is a valuable and inexhaustible asset to politicians who want to expand government.”
17. “It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication, and a government bureaucracy to administer it.” (Knowledge and Decisions)
18. “I have never understood why it is ‘greed’ to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else’s money.”
19. “Racism is not dead, but it is on life support, kept alive by politicians, race hustlers and people who get a sense of superiority by denouncing others as ‘racists.’”
20. “The old adage about giving a man a fish versus teaching him how to fish has been updated by a reader: Give a man a fish, and he will ask for tartar sauce and French fries! Moreover, some politician who wants his vote will declare all these things to be among his ‘basic rights.’”
Neil Grossman retweeted
The Evil Party and the Stupid Party
Where do we go now?
It was the late twentieth-century conservative pundit M. Stanton Evans who was the first to dub the Republican Party the Stupid Party, and the Democrat Party the Evil Party: “We have two parties and only two. One is the evil party and the other is the stupid party. I’m very proud to be a member of the stupid party. Occasionally, the two parties get together to do something that’s evil and stupid. That’s called bipartisanship.”
Indeed. And lately we have gotten a double dose of evil and stupid. The Evil Party has lately voted to send Darializa Avila Chevalier, a pro-Hamas Marxist convert to Islam who wants to abolish ICE and the police, and has so much contempt for the United States of America that she has boasted about using the American flag as a napkin. She also angered some of her fellow migrants from the Dominican Republic by stating that she didn’t put the Dominican flag on her social media profiles because she believes that nationalism is inherently “violent”; her socialist internationalist comrades, of course, have never hurt a fly.
Avila Chevalier is just one of many. Also going to Congress next January, thanks to the Stupid Party’s failure to mount any effective opposition, will be one of Avila Chevalier’s Muslim brothers, Hisham “Adam” Hamawy, who will become the first member of the United States House of Representatives to have worked for a group linked to al-Qaeda and to have served as a defense witness for a jihad terror leader.
The Democrats’ embrace of Marxism has been so decisive that even the old Democrat strategist, liar, and fantasist James Carville has had enough. Referring to the new crop of incoming Communist congressmen, Carville raged: “All of these people hate Democrats. Why do you want to run as a Democrat? Start your own movement. If it’s such a powerful, sweeping movement that’s got momentum everywhere, then go ahead and be at the head of it. Don’t use the Democratic Party to advance it.”
Carville doesn’t want to admit it, but he represents the dead past. Zohran Mamdani, Darializa Avila Chevalier, and Adam Hisham Hamawy are the Evil Party’s future. And if Carville were honest, which he isn’t within three thousand miles of being, he would admit that the soft socialism of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Old Joe Biden paved the way for the self-righteous, abysmally ignorant radicals who are taking over the party today. The Evil Party has been evil since the days of slavery and Jim Crow, and its socialist program started in 1933 with the inauguration of Franklin D. Roosevelt as president. Today’s Marxist Democrats are just the logical end point of the New Deal.
The Stupid Party, meanwhile, deserves some credit for originality. Everyone could see Marxism coming among the Democrats, but no one expected Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again program to become a blank check for the Islamic Republic of Iran and strenuous efforts from the United States government to establish the Islamic Republic as the Middle East’s regional hegemon. It was for efforts of this kind that Trump rightly derided Barack Obama, but now he has out-Obama’d Obama, and set a new American standard for cowardice, pusillanimity, appeasement, and abject surrender, all while keeping up an increasingly pathetic façade of chest-thumping braggadocio, insisting that the U.S. won and that the Iranians are begging for a deal, when all the evidence goes in the other direction.
Read more at the link in the next post.
Neil Grossman retweeted
Ludwig von Mises, Hayek’s early mentor, wrote one of the most brutal takedowns of socialism ever:
“The champions of socialism ... call themselves liberals, but they are intent upon abolishing liberty. They call themselves democrats, but they yearn for dictatorship. They call themselves revolutionaries, but they want to make the government omnipotent.
They promise the blessings of the Garden of Eden, but they plan to transform the world into a gigantic post office. Every man but one a subordinate clerk in a bureau.”
Neil Grossman retweeted
Summary of facts:
There was a ceasefire Saturday between the U.S./Israel/U.A.E. and Iran.
There was a ceasefire Saturday between Israel and Hezbollah.
On Sunday Hezbollah violated the ceasefire by firing into Israel.
Israel responded with s strike on Hezbollah in Beirut.
Iran had launched missiles against Israel.
.
My opinion:
Israel should respond with strikes in Iran.
The U.S. should support Israel and, if Iran escalates again, the U.S. should commence combat operations again.
Neil Grossman retweeted
I am not a Jew. But as a professor of international law & retired military lawyer who studies how distorted legal rhetoric is used to justify hate & violence directed against Jews, you are 💯 mistaken to believe your safety "as Jewish New Yorkers" is "inextricably intertwined with Palestinians."
I am not progressive, either. But based on your comments in this clip & my background with the study mentioned above, I do have a few tips you should consider exploring if you are genuinely concerned with your safety as a Jewish New Yorker.
Spoiler alert: these tips have absolutely nothing to do with Palestinians - at least, not directly.
1. Stop blaming @Israel for what you refer to as "the utter destruction of Gaza."
First of all, #Gaza isn't "utterly destroyed" to begin with. There are absolutely areas that are currently uninhabitable due to the conflict. But it's not all of Gaza. This perception has been carefully curated by influencers showing isolated clips of select destroyed areas while giving the false impression that this visualization represents the entire Strip.
It doesn't. If you think otherwise, do yourself a favor & find/follow accounts like @GAZAWOOD1 that present clips of videos that are posted from people living inside Gaza right now.
If you believe Gaza is utterly destroyed, educate yourself. You are being played, and only you can stop it.
Second, learn at least something about international law. Like this.
You criticize your opponent @RepDanGoldman for supporting "unconditional aid to Israel" (Ilana Glazer's words) "even despite Israel's utter destruction of Gaza" (your words).
Here, you are actually supporting strategic objectives of literal terrorists whose only goal is the utter destruction of Israel. #Hamas committed the atrocities of 10/7 to provoke a large-scale armed conflict in order to derail normalization between 🇮🇱 & select Arab countries.
Their best shot at getting away with it was for sympathetic partisans throughout the West - such as yourself & Ilana Glazer - to convince Israel's traditional closest partners & allies to restrict military aid & pressure Israel into implementing a ceasefire as early as possible. Doing so would ensure Hamas could survive to continue in a governance role in Gaza after the conflict.
And the way to convince Iran's useful idiots, such as yourself, to pressure Western governments to restrict military aid is to manipulate the language of international law to make it seem that these countries are failing to comply with their own legal obligations or even "complicit" in systemic "war crimes" by failing to condition or restrict aid.
It's a hoax, and it always has been. Determining whether a war crime has been committed requires evidence of the knowledge & intent of personnel responsible for each attack at the time. If you don't believe me, study this highlighted excerpt of the Rome Statute (pic 1).
Yes, neither 🇮🇱 nor 🇺🇸 have ratified this multilateral treaty. But the main war crimes provisions in Article 8, as well as the mental element/mistake of fact provisions of Articles 30 & 32, are consistent with our military doctrine. And guess what evidence you need, pursuant to this doctrinal source, to determine a war crime has been committed.
That's right! If a war crime involves "intentionally directing an attack against" civilian persons or property, and "intent" means "awareness that a circumstance exists," and the "circumstance" is the civilian (not taking direct part in hostilities) character of the person/object attacked, then we require evidence demonstrating personnel responsible for each attack were aware of the civilian character of the target at the time & they attacked it anyway.
Any guesses what you can't determine just from looking at "utter destruction" in a battlespace? Right again! Knowledge & intent of personnel responsible for each attack at the time that led to that utter destruction.
Maybe - just maybe - a transnational terrorist organization committed one of the most horrific atrocities in living memory then deliberately hid & fought among its own civilian population in the ensuing large-scale armed conflict it decided to provoke. And maybe they hid IEDs in every structure they could so that @IDF troops clearing the area successfully capturing it would still continue to perish. And maybe that is cumulatively the reason for the "utter destruction of Gaza."
News flash: that is exactly the cause of most of the destruction in Gaza. And because that's the case, there is no obligation to condition military aid to Israel. No clear risk of systemic war crimes being committed with arms supplied to Israel (🇺🇸 hasn't ratified the Arms Trade Treaty, but we have a similar process for determining whether to provide military aid nonetheless) means no requirement to condition aid.
The reason the language of international law is routinely distorted in this manner, btw, is to convert a policy argument into what appears to be a legal one. A "should" to a "must."
But if you believe 🇺🇸 is failing to abide by its international law obligations by providing military aid to 🇮🇱, once again you are being played. Stop.
2. Stop perpetuating the "genocide" blood libel.
As you criticize Dan Goldman for supporting "unconditional aid to Israel," along with the "utter destruction" nonsense you also say he does so, "Even despite Israel's utter destruction of Gaza, which I consider a genocide" (emphasis added).
There are a lot of people nowadays who believe Israel is responsible for genocide in Gaza. But all of you who do simply demonstrate you don't understand what "genocide" actually is.
See, if we start with the doctrinal definition from the Genocide Convention, we see that this crime of crimes is committed by engaging in enumerated acts (not pictured) "with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such" (pic 2, especially red highlight).
Guess what doesn't qualify as a "national, ethnical, racial, or religious group". Right! Terrorist groups like Hamas.
And take a wild guess which group IDF ops in Gaza intend to destroy. If you said "Palestinians," you are, once again, just another of Iran's useful idiots. If you said "Hamas," give yourself a pat on the back.
The stated intent, from the very beginning of Swords of Iron all the way until today, has been to: 1) eliminate the enduring security threat posed by Hamas; and 2) repatriate all hostages. If you're not sure about that, I invite you to review these excerpts from public remarks provided by @IsraeliPM @netanyahu in October 2023 (pic 3) & October 2025 (pic 4). Slightly different wording, same intent.
Yes, I've heard the argument too many times to count now that most major "human rights" orgs & a number of "genocide scholars" & a UN commission of inquiry & even a handful of countries have all determined Israel is responsible for genocide. But they ALL use the same flawed methodology, and so their conclusions are also irreparably flawed.
That is, they ALL begin with a few specimens of political rhetoric from various Israeli officials, most of which are misrepresented or taken out of context to begin with, to establish the requisite "intent." Then they take an equally selective collection of "evidence" - much of which is from untrustworthy or unreliable sources anyway - to establish the enumerated acts to go along with the purportedly genocidal intent.
It is, once again, a hoax. Not a single one starts with the actual stated intent (eg pics 3 & 4 attached here) then takes a balanced, unbiased approach to assessing whether actions actually observed in the battlespace are consistent with the intent to destroy Hamas or, instead, to destroy Palestinians in whole or in part as such.
If you do that - if you understand the correct methodology & you apply it rigorously - there is only one conclusion: Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, nor has it ever.
It doesn't matter what "you consider" it. You are being played, because you are ignorant. Stop, by educating yourself.
3. Stop blaming "Trump and Netanyahu for setting the Middle East on fire."
Do you know who actually set the Middle East on Fire? Terrorists like Nasrallah, Deif, Sinwar, and the Ayatollah Khamenei, along with the militaries & proxies armed groups they led. And they did so on 10/7, once again, simply to derail normalization.
In doing so, these literal terrorists demonstrated that the status quo of appeasement & diplomacy in pursuit of peace in the Middle East & a two-state solution was no longer tenable. Tbh that approach wasn't tenable for quite a while - but 10/7 proved that to be the case.
And now Trump & Netanyahu are the two world leaders with both the intestinal fortitude & the resources to establish a new status quo. That's what Swords of Iron & Rising Lion & Midnight Hammer & Roaring Lion & Epic Fury have been all about - achieving a new status quo after the aforementioned literal terrorists actually (literally) set the Middle East on fire.
The only way to successfully achieve a new, acceptable status quo is through force of arms - not arms embargoes. If you believe otherwise, you are being played. Stop it. Open your eyes & educate yourself.
Okay, those are three suggestions for specific actions you can take to help improve your safety as New York Jews. The same goes for Jews really throughout the West.
Because here's the thing. Your safety as Jews in the West has absolutely nothing to do with Palestinians. It has everything to do with countering the false narratives - primarily involving misrepresentations of international law - that are being used to justify hate & attacks against Jews.
It doesn't matter how much you try distance yourself from Israel, or zionism, or Bibi, or Trump. That won't stop some crazed lunatic from pulling a gun on you or siccing his dog on you or driving his car into your synagogue or throwing bricks at your head or any other number of seemingly random & horrific attacks against Jews we've seen escalate in the West since 10/7.
G-d forbid any of these or other acts of violence ever happens to you or someone you love. But if it does, recent experience suggests the perpetrator - and his supporters afterward - will accuse you of supporting genocide & war crimes just for being Jewish.
Because Jews are being regarded as proxies for Israel, and Israel is being regarded as a proxy for zionism, and Hamas doctrine justifies the "struggle" against the "Zionist entity" known as the State of Israel.
I've heard the term "self-hating Jew" be directed toward folks like yourself. Oftentimes you're referred to by the term "As-a-Jew." @GadSaad would probably diagnose you with suicidal empathy.
Regardless of whether any of those descriptions apply, as someone who specializes in international law I can definitively affirm you are both ignorant & naive.
If you're concerned about your safety as a Jew, stop perpetuating the lies & distortions that are - unfortunately - putting you most at risk. Stop blaming Israel & @AIPAC & conservatives like Netanyahu & Trump for ... well, everything in the Middle East & at home in New York.
Learn how to push back, with precision, against the false narratives that are being used to justify hate & violence directed against the Jewish population. This is the most effective direction you can take if you are genuinely concerned about your safety as a Jew.
Neil Grossman retweeted
NOW: Mamdani says his admin will transfer ownership from bad landlords to non-profits.
“For buildings that have suffered chronic neglect, we will work to transfer ownership to responsible stewards.
Stewards that include community land trusts, non-profits, or even the tenants themselves.”
Neil Grossman retweeted
So why and how did millions of Americans begin to express hatred for Israel and, albeit more subtly, the Jews who support it?
There are four converging fronts in this perfect storm:
victorhanson.com/the-four-ho…
