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Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
Democratic/DEM-aligned polls in October that are public are now more conservative than Republican internal/GOP-aligned polls that are public, by about half a point. The professional bedwetter party.
Rs are starting the final week of early/mail voting in big holes in multiple states. We really have to see things turn around, like *today*, to make some of these Senate races (Georgia, North Carolina, etc....) remotely competitive/close in the end.
In Texas, have to start seeing rurals showing up, or it's very defensible to call Talarico the outright favorite heading into E Day.
In Florida, Rs are obviously still favored... but they still haven't taken the lead after multiple days of IPEV, which is a really bad sign for them.
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
Montgomery is doing horrendously today. It's tracking at like 85% of *Saturday* in these last few hours, and it hasn't had a single hour break 70% of 2024. Week 2's Monday was Montgomery's biggest day in 2024, so the expectation was that today would be massive, but it's just not.
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
Amid strong Democratic early voting in North Carolina, Democrats are pulling money out of left-trending, Trump+9 NC-11 out of confidence in their chances. Meanwhile, Republicans have increased spending in Trump+16 NC-09. Battleground in the state has shifted a lot.
House Majority PAC pulling money out of #NC11, where I'm told they feel good about Democrat Jamie Ager's chances over Republican Jennifer Balkcom.
via @AdImpact_Pol:
If you want to a take a degenerate flyer on Dems over-performing, it feels like NJ-02 is a good place to do it. Mullock (D Nom) only 22-23% on Kalshi still. Took a small position in the margin market, feels like it may be close-ish (mid single digits or lower) at least.
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
Based on county-level early in-person voting updates, Republicans appear to have taken the lead in total Florida ballots cast by party registration, a lead they are unlikely to relinquish. The electorate was R+12 in 2024, so the question is how close they can get to that level.
Yes, we are sure they are backloading. Today will be a red day and likely should flip total AB + IPEV to red. There are just so many more GOP than Dem voters left that voted in the 2020, 2022, 2024, and 2026 primary and historically >95% of these voters will vote in the next general.
What we don't know is *how much* the GOP is backloading, especially because the GOP is showing some weakness with low propensity voters. The GOP is super far behind schedule right now so if it's only moderate backloading, and the struggles turning out low-prop bleeds into mid propensity voters the electorate could definitely end up at R+7 or R+8--then I think Gov would just be Tilt R and Senate a true Likely R in my view.
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
Yesterday was Democrats' best day yet in Florida, essentially halting the narrowing of their early voting advantage relative to 2024, at least temporarily.
Republicans are backloading their turnout this week, so I'd still expect that shift to shrink. But Democrats are putting up quite a strong showing with lower-propensity voters.
Even with roughly 500,000 additional net registered Republicans since November 2024, we have a good chance end up with an electorate that's bluer by party registration than in 2024. Still looking like somewhere around an R+9 - R+11 electorate though, which does take a good amount of persuasion to win and is super, super tough to win in a federal race.
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
If an event happens and someone told you there was a 1/134 million chance of it happening, your first thought should be that their model of the world is incorrect
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
With 56% of votes counted, every state in Brazil is shifting toward Lula compared to the first round. An extraordinary turnaround for the incumbent president.
Just remember folks, there’s 2 years for the fundamentals to get worse for Republicans from here.
- The Iran war isn’t magically resolving on good terms.
- AI is going to either cause a lot of social and economic disruption (in the good case) or we risk a crash from an excessive build out.
- Medicaid cuts haven’t even hit yet.
- Debt/bond market concerns finally becoming a bigger deal, with no non-politically painful way out.
While it’s way too early to say what 2028 will look like, it could be bluer than even this year.
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
New Jersey In-Person Early Voting
2025 DAY 1
🔵 DEM 38,039 (42%)
🔴 GOP 35,512 (39%)
⚪️ OTH 16,895 (19%)
2026 DAY 1
🔵 DEM 47,984 (57%)
🔴 GOP 20,989 (25%)
⚪️ OTH 15,118 (18%)
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
TEXAS IPEV DAY 6 UPDATE
Yesterday was the first weekend voting. The 2024 EV - 2026 recall shift is now down to 8.4 points. Adding in the other rural counties, being conservative this implies a 5 pt shift (Trump +8.7 electorate among 2024 voters).
The weekend voting saw the expected bump for Democrats, who reversed the reddening through the end of the first week. Places like Collin/Denton/Montgomery all had their bluest day on record, as they did in 2024.
We now have Bexar, and El Paso added in, and they both behave like big metros. El Paso Dems especially are putting up an extremely strong electorate shift. Tarrant Dems recovered quite a bit as well.
We added Wilson County - blue collar deep-red San Antonio exurbs. As is true with Hardin, the electorate is barely budging. But, as with Hardin, their turnout rate is low (<80% of 2024 so far for both). The same is true for the white precincts in Nederland/Groves in Jefferson County - their electorate is barely budging but their turnout is lacking.
The Latino shift is really strong still in Houston/Dallas/Tarrant/rural Hidalgo/Cameron - Dems still have a lot of votes out in Bexar/Nueces.
HD-144 in South Houston/Pasadena has a D+10 turnout shift among 2024 voters *and* 20% of the electorate not having cast a ballot in 2024. Wonder how that will break.
So far nothing too surprising here quite yet - the U-shape is manifesting, and the Republican 3/3 voters are going to continue mid-loading. Dem low prop voters are going to continue backloading towards the end of the week/EDay.
We are down from 64% of voters being 3/3 on day 1 to just 52% - so low prop voters are selecting weekends.
Sunday should probably see an influx of black voters into the electorate, followed by some red days Monday/Tuesday and then the last few days after that I would expect to get bluer.
Stay tuned for more, we will do our next Space on Wednesday!
Interactive: claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
Nick Pappas 🌻 retweeted
and statewide EV in 2024 was R+10.0
as of now it's D+4.9
Independents not even taken into account either, that's just straight RvD split
