Nick (@NickSF415) header
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Horticulturalist, investor, discipline. Building alpha402x: company research read from the source, for humans and agents.

San Francisco, CA
Joined September 2012
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$LRN Oct 26 to Nov 5, about $39.6M. Director Haggart bought about $37.9M across 4 buys, and director Shepherd bought $1.67M on 11/3.
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Bullish $IREN. GB300s contracted to $MSFT who just wound down Oracle’s H100 deal.
Microsoft, $MSFT, is winding down a deal to rent AI cloud capacity from Oracle, $ORCL, per Bloomberg. The reason: over time, the Oracle computing it was renting became less useful because it no longer fit Microsoft’s specifications. The hardware ran on older-generation Nvidia chips, according to people familiar.
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$IDXX +21.8% move, on a 2% revenue beat. About $5.3 billion of future revenue sits under multi-year customer commitments, with 28% of that due in 2027, and operating income grew faster than revenue.
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$OTIS monitoring, strong last 3 weeks, looking for the multiple closes above the 30wk MA here. 10-Q this week. Hold the 30wk then looking for a MA slope flip.
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$ROKU Q3 operating income was $164.1M vs $9.5M a year ago. Inside it: a $22.3M lease-impairment credit (a gain booked in opex) and $13.6M of merger costs. Net those out, plus a ~$1M earn-out mark: $156.4M vs $10.4M, a margin of 0.9% → 10.4%. Still huge, just not $164M.
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$BWXT 9-month operating cash flow is up 28%, but only 15% before working capital. About half of the $98.9M increase is working capital: accounts payable nearly doubled since year-end ($141.3M → $281.6M)
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Earnings season so far: 133 companies' 10-Qs read, analyzed and graded since Oct 13. Each quarter is measured against the company's own prior-year trajectory, not against peers or consensus: line items vs the year-ago quarter, margin and cash reads, a structure check, and a STRONG / STABLE / WEAK grade. alpha402x.com
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$CIFR is building on debt: 9M capex $2.52B vs $263M a year ago, PP&E $3.90B vs $633M at Dec. 31, borrowings $5.56B vs $2.75B. Operating cash flow over the same nine months: −$283M.
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$TRMB update
$TRMB looks good here going into earnings, regardless holding this one through the next 10-K print. Nice 10-Q prints coming off a weak 10-K.
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$EME Q3 2026 call: Organic revenue grew 25.5%. Even with more fabrication investment, management expects capex at 1% or less of sales. Leased facilities and greater use of existing shops offer a way to scale without a large owned-plant buildout. The capex level is a forward framework rather than an explicitly dated annual guide or reported Q3 rate. Leasing reduces owned-plant investment but still carries operating costs; the post makes no claim that all growth funding is negligible.
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$GEV Q3 2026 call: Power's 21.4% EBITDA margin came in its lightest services quarter. Better-priced turbines were shipping at a 5 GW quarterly rate. Factory output is turning earlier order pricing into current profit. Power segment EBITDA margin was 21.4%. Management explicitly ties the result to better-priced equipment shipments, the 5 GW quarterly run rate and factory productivity, in the seasonally lightest services quarter.
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$KLAC Q1 FY2027 call: Some customers requested tool deliveries, then put them on hold because their facilities weren't ready. Supply expansion can ease one constraint while the customer's construction schedule still limits shipments. The facility-related holds concern a couple of customers. They do not establish that all backlog or all customers face the same constraint.
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$LRCX Q1 FY2027 call: Faster SLC NAND holds fewer bits per device. Management estimates each 1-point shift in bit mix to SLC needs ~2% more wafer capacity at flat bit demand. A shift toward performance can create equipment demand even without faster bit growth. The capacity sensitivity is management's estimate at unchanged bit demand. The call leaves 2027 SLC adoption unquantified; the post is a conditional mechanism, not an adoption forecast. A point means one percentage point.
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$FIX Q3 2026 call: Management says every dollar of accepted backlog is labor-planned. Customers are committing earlier to secure scarce capacity. That makes backlog a staffing plan as well as a demand signal; further growth still requires more people.
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$WDC Q1 FY2027 call: Price per TB rose 28% YoY. Management links pricing power to denser drives that reduce customers' rack and power costs. Higher supplier prices can coexist with lower total storage costs per TB. Customer savings help support the pricing. Management links the 28% year-over-year price-per-terabyte increase to higher drive capacity and lower rack and power costs. The call does not quantify the customer's net savings.
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$RXRX — worth putting on the radar for a potential multiyear inflection. • Clinical: REC-4881 and REC-1245 are showing early human activity that gives the pipeline measurable substance. • $TEM: A two-year, $12M model license shows external willingness to pay for Recursion’s AI technology. • $SNY: A candidate option brings a $10M milestone, partner-funded development and potential future royalties. • Funding: New equity capital supports further trials, with management guiding to runway into 2029. Interesting shape: clinical progress, AI monetization and partner validation coming together. Durability, repeatability and value per share still need proving.
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$NXPI Q3 FY2026 quant card is live: the quarter's line items against the year-ago quarter, margin and cash reads, a structure check, and a STRONG / STABLE / WEAK grade against the prior fiscal year's trajectory. Paired qual card: the filing's footnotes as a dated timeline, the next-quarter tests, and a bullish / neutral / bearish signal count. $0.25 each, USDC on Base. alpha402x.com/quarterly-quan…
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$XYL Q3 FY2026 quant card is live: the quarter's line items against the year-ago quarter, margin and cash reads, a structure check, and a STRONG / STABLE / WEAK grade against the prior fiscal year's trajectory. Paired qual card: the filing's footnotes as a dated timeline, the next-quarter tests, and a bullish / neutral / bearish signal count. $0.25 each, USDC on Base. alpha402x.com/quarterly-quan…
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$LECO Q3 FY2026 quant card is live: the quarter's line items against the year-ago quarter, margin and cash reads, a structure check, and a STRONG / STABLE / WEAK grade against the prior fiscal year's trajectory. Paired qual card: the filing's footnotes as a dated timeline, the next-quarter tests, and a bullish / neutral / bearish signal count. $0.25 each, USDC on Base. alpha402x.com/quarterly-quan…
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$AMKR Q3 FY2026 quant card is live: the quarter's line items against the year-ago quarter, margin and cash reads, a structure check, and a STRONG / STABLE / WEAK grade against the prior fiscal year's trajectory. Paired qual card: the filing's footnotes as a dated timeline, the next-quarter tests, and a bullish / neutral / bearish signal count. $0.25 each, USDC on Base. alpha402x.com/quarterly-quan…
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