Karl

NIO delivered 34,246 cars in October, down 8.5% from September's 37,408. NIO brand 18,125, ONVO 8,383, Firefly 7,738. Jan-Oct deliveries reached 334,547, up 38.5% year on year and a record for the first ten months. Only 16% of our poll voters saw a drop below 35k. They called it. $NIO

$NIO Me on 2 hours of sleep:

$NIO news recap (Oct 29 - 31) ➜ The ES8 outsold BYD's Great Tang in China in September: 11,121 retail units vs 11,048, according to provincial data compiled by ThinkerCar. The ES8's biggest leads came in Zhejiang (+1,330), Jiangsu (+932) and Shanghai (+888). ➜ Firefly president Jin Ge says the brand will pass 100,000 cars in November, according to Weibo auto bloggers. ➜ Li Bin says another major smart-driving update will ship before the end of the year, with more to follow. No date or version number yet. ➜ In Denmark, NIO and Firefly cut prices on about 100 stock cars by up to DKK 100,000 from Oct 29. The ET5 drops from DKK 364,900 to 264,900, the EL6 from 404,900 to 304,900 and the Firefly from 209,900 to 179,900. The campaign comes with a new dealer partner, Autohuset Vestergaard. ➜ NIO and ONVO models are the official designated vehicles of the 9th China International Import Expo in Shanghai, Nov 5-10.

China's official factory PMI fell to 49.3 in October, from 50.1 in September. Back below 50, the line between growth and contraction. The consensus was 50.0 (TradingEconomics). New orders: 49.4 (September: 50.5) Non-manufacturing: 49.7 (September: 50.2) NIO, XPeng and Li Auto report October deliveries tomorrow.

$NIO is now worth less than the cash it reported in June: $8.0B vs $8.4B. The stock trades at $3.18, after a new 52-week low of $3.16 today, down 55% in a year. Over its last 4 reported quarters NIO did $16.8B of revenue, and Q2 gross margin was 18.4%, up from 10.0% a year earlier. Caveats: $2.0B of that cash is restricted, NIO owes $2.6B in borrowings, and it still posted a net loss in Q2.

China built 52% fewer gas-only cars in October's first four weeks than a year earlier. CPCA count: 386,000. Its explanation: high oil prices. Brent is above $110 after a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz today. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids now outnumber them: 397,000 built, down 21%. A year ago it was roughly 800,000 gas-only to 500,000. EV and plug-in retail fell too, down 13% from Oct 1 to 25, but now takes 65.7% of China's car sales. $NIO sells only battery electric cars. Not one has a gas engine.

$NIO's net margin went from -26.3% to -1.6% in one year. That's +24.6 points. Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, next to 8 other big EV makers in China and the US: Net margin change NIO +24.6 pts Best of the rest: BYD +1.1 Gross margin change NIO +8.4 pts (10.0% to 18.4%) Best of the rest: XPeng +3.4 Revenue: NIO +69.1%, fastest of the 9. Low base, yes. And NIO still lost money in Q2, unlike BYD, Geely, Tesla, Changan and Leapmotor. Q3 so far: Tesla and BYD's biggest margin move is +1.6 pts.

Volkswagen lost €5.8B in Q3. BYD made 10.0B yuan. Same quarter, reported the same day: Volkswagen: €5.8B after-tax loss, revenue -6.3%, China deliveries -38.5% BYD: 10.0B yuan net profit (about €1.35B), +28% from a year ago, revenue +13.6% Fairness note: €7.8B of special items hit VW in Q3, mostly non-cash, incl. a €6.4B Porsche goodwill write-down. Gross margin: $NIO 18.4% in Q2, BYD about 18.0% in Q3. NIO reports Q3 in November.

$NIO news recap (Oct 28 - 29) ➜ An owner asked Li Bin if the BaaS battery rental fee could come down. His answer: "If it goes down, we probably won't be able to make the numbers work." He added that the profit goes back into building swap stations and improving service. ➜ Weekly order estimates for Oct 19-25 don't agree. Goldman Sachs has NIO Group at about 6,000, down 1.6% week on week and tied with XPeng. The New Energy Exploration Record tally has it at 7,900, up 11%. Neither number is official. ➜ NIO Power and Changsha's state-owned CETD Group handed over their first 10 co-built swap stations and launched a second phase of 20 more across Hunan. NIO Power now works with 40+ state-owned partners in 25 provinces, with over 900 jointly built swap stations. ➜ NIO Power signed a strategic deal with CGN New Energy, part of China General Nuclear, in Shanghai on Oct 28. It covers green power for the charging and swap network, V2G and power market trading, and second-life use of BaaS batteries for energy storage.

Ford lost about $31,000 on every EV it sold in Q3. Model e: $1.06B EBIT loss on 34,000 wholesales, a margin of -86.5%. $NIO sells only EVs and lost about $723 per car in Q2, GAAP net loss with every cost in.

$NIO news recap (Oct 27 - 28) ➜ NIO Group took about 7,900 new orders in the week of Oct 19-25, according to estimates shared by Weibo auto bloggers. Firefly alone is at around 1,500 orders a week, up several months in a row. These are unofficial numbers. ➜ NIO's electric drive system won first prize at the 2026 China SAE Science and Technology Awards, the only science and technology award covering China's whole auto industry. NIO started building its own e-drives in 2015 and is now on its fourth generation. The winning system is used in the ES8, ES9 and ET9. ➜ NIO's advanced manufacturing base in Hefei was named a 2026 "Excellence-level" smart factory, the top tier of a national ranking run by MIIT and five other ministries. Li Bin pointed out the plant is already a WEF Global Lighthouse factory. ➜ A convoy of third-gen ES8 owners finished an 8,045 km drive from Guangzhou to Khorgos, on the Kazakhstan border, in 13 days using only battery swaps. NIO's Silk Road swap route from Xi'an to Khorgos has been fully connected since Sep 26.

China's best-selling car above RMB 300k this year is a NIO. Jan-Sep 2026: NIO ES8: 114,617 Mercedes E-Class: 88,391 Audi A6L: 86,317 26k ahead of the E-Class, in the price class the Germans owned for decades. And of ES8 buyers trading in or adding a car, 61% came from BMW, Mercedes or Audi owners.

$DQ is worth $684M on the market. It sits on $2.06B in cash, deposits and short-term investments. Zero debt. The market is pricing Daqo at about a third of its cash pile. Daqo is one of China's biggest polysilicon makers, the raw material of solar panels. The stock traded above $120 in Feb 2021. It closed at $10.11 yesterday. And Q3 is the first quarter that looks like a turn: • Revenue: $194M vs $63M in Q2 (+210%) • Volume sold: 46,910 t vs 15,190 t • Production cost: $5.37/kg, a record low (Q2: $5.95) • Net loss to shareholders: $53M vs $81M • EBITDA: -$9M vs -$29M The part I like most: N-type polysilicon in China bounced about 30% off the Q2 low, from RMB 30.5 to 33/kg up to 40 to 43/kg by end of September. Daqo barely felt it yet. Its Q3 selling price rose only 2% to $4.12/kg, because Q3 shipments filled orders signed before late July. Management expects Q4 prices to be higher than Q3. Before anyone yells "free money": no. Part of that cash sits in Xinjiang Daqo, a subsidiary with minority shareholders. There are $639M of other liabilities. Moving cash up to the US-listed holding is not automatic. Add Chinese overcapacity, weak demand, ongoing losses, regulatory risk, and Q4 output guided down to 35k to 45k t. Still, the market prices Daqo like this crisis never ends. I think that's too pessimistic. Am I wrong? 👀 Data as of Oct 26 to 27, 2026. Not investment advice.

Barclays upgraded Tesla on Monday, citing a possible SpaceX merger. Few mention the hurdle. A deal would need approval from 50% of ALL Tesla shares, not just the shares that vote. Musk himself called it "quite a high hurdle." Both boards have special committees. No terms agreed yet. Would you vote yes?

$NIO news recap (Oct 26 - 27) ➜ The ES9 is now on sale in Armenia, its first known market outside China. NIO's Yerevan dealer N-Motors lists three versions from $99,200 to about $124,000, roughly a third above China prices, with no battery rental since there are no swap stations there. NIO hasn't announced ES9 sales abroad, but co-founder and president Qin Lihong just visited the dealer during COP17. ➜ Li Bin told users in Hefei that the upcoming 120 kWh battery won't be compatible with every NIO model after all, a change from what he said in August. It will work with both 400V and 900V charging, and launch is still a while away. ➜ NIO opened its first new swap station in Europe in over a year, in Staufenberg-Lutterberg, Germany. That makes 22 in Germany and 61 in Europe. ➜ NIO Power passed 4,200 battery swap stations on Oct 27, with #4200 opening in Gaobeidian, Hebei. The network now counts 9,710 charging and swap stations.

China's AI stocks just lost $480B in under 4 months. They're still 3x more expensive than the Nasdaq. STAR50 (China's AI and chip leaders): down 40% P/E: from nearly 250x at the peak to about 100x now Nasdaq 100: 30x, only 6% below its record Big Tech reports this week. Is the US next? 📉

JPMorgan cuts its $NIO price target to $3.70 from $4.50 and keeps Neutral. That is now the lowest target on Wall Street. It's the second cut in under two months, after the September downgrade from Overweight. CLSA landed at the same level on Friday (HK$29), while Goldman Sachs still rates NIO a Buy with a $7 target. Shares closed at $3.29 on Friday.

$NIO news recap (Oct 25 - 26) ➜ NIO's in-house 46105 large cylindrical cells will reportedly see a very small first batch by year-end, made under contract by EVE Energy and Gotion. Mass production is still hard in the near term. NIO rates the cell at 292 Wh/kg with up to 5C charging, and the first batch will likely go into the 120 kWh pack, which Li Bin says will fit every NIO-brand model. ➜ A Dongfeng Nissan internal training slide for its NX7 calls NIO's design "the benchmark for new energy vehicle startups." ➜ NIO ranked first among new energy brands for after-sales service satisfaction in the 2026 survey of China's auto maintenance industry association. ➜ LandRoads Q3 data: Geely Galaxy (+246 outlets) and Xiaomi (+234) led China's retail expansion, while NIO and ONVO posted notable net declines in outlets as they shift to optimizing their networks. BMW, Mercedes and Audi kept shrinking theirs too. ➜ NIO Power opened swap station #4198 and supercharger #3578 on Oct 26, for 9,706 charging and swap stations in total. Bengbu in Anhui also got its first fifth-gen station.