Nooh Ahmad

People obsessing over the Brazilian stock market crash should remember that better stock market returns don’t necessarily translate into better living standards for ordinary people. Take India and China, for example. From December 2000 to March 2026, Indian equities returned approximately 1,035% in US dollars, including net dividends, compared with roughly 505% for Chinese equities. Yet, between 2000 and 2025, China’s real GDP per capita rose from approximately $2,194 to $13,793, an increase of about 529%. India’s rose from around $757 to $2,523, an increase of approximately 233%. The difference is also visible in life expectancy. Between 2000 and 2024, life expectancy in China increased from roughly 72 to 78 years, while India’s rose from approximately 63 to 72 years. Now, coming back to Brazil, let’s compare Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019–2022) with Lula’s current term (2023–2026). Amazon deforestation: Under Bolsonaro, annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon reached 13,038 km² in 2021. Under Lula, it fell to 5,731 km² in 2025, roughly 56% below that peak. Poverty: Brazil’s poverty rate fell from 31.6% in 2022 to 23.1% in 2024. Unemployment: The unemployment rate fell from 9.3% in the second quarter of 2022 to 5.4% in the second quarter of 2026. Of course, Brazil still faces serious fiscal challenges. Its gross government debt is substantial, at roughly 93% of GDP under broad international estimates. But look at other major economies: Japan’s debt is approximately 212% of GDP, the US’s 124%, France’s 116% and China’s 99%. Crucially, around 95–97% of Brazil’s central government debt is denominated in its own currency, the real. This gives Brazil greater monetary flexibility than countries heavily indebted in foreign currencies. Of course, borrowing in its own currency doesn’t mean Brazil has nothing to worry about. Inflation, a weakening real and high interest rates can still create serious problems, and the government needs to keep its debt under control. The point is not that financial markets should be ignored. It is that their reaction is not the sole measure of a government’s performance. Markets focus on profits, valuations, interest rates and fiscal risks. Ordinary people care about jobs, wages, purchasing power, healthcare, education and the environment. A stock market is not a country’s report card on living standards. And a government’s responsibility is to its people, not merely to keep investors happy.