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Nowcast EU 🗳️

@Nowcast_EU

📈 Polling 📊 Seat Projections ⚖️ Analysis of European electoral politics | @JoshHousden

 Europe
ko-fi.com/nowcast_eu
Joined July 2023
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Countries that are covered by @Nowcast_EU projection models (24/11/2025) 🟩 - We try to update at least once or twice a month 🟧 - Timing of updates is subject to polling frequency New additions: 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇪 Estonia
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Josh Housden@JoshHousden8h
Our latest forecast for the #29N Spanish general election. First since the formation of new alliances on the left, plus the inclusion of Adelante Andalucía — currently projected to gain 3 members of parliament The PP+Vox majority 'cushion' is roughly 28 seats.
Nowcast EU 🗳️ (@Nowcast_EU) profile pictureNowcast EU 🗳️@Nowcast_EU8h
🇪🇦 Spain | Congress of Deputies forecast — November 5, 2026 🟦 PP: 32% | 135 🟥 PSOE: 26% | 104 🟩 Vox: 19% | 68 🟧 FrA: 7% | 11 🟨 ERC: 2% | 9 🟩 EhB: 1% | 7 #️⃣ JxC: 1% | 6 ⚖️ Majority: 176 📅 Upcoming election: November 29
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🇪🇦 Spain | Congress of Deputies forecast — November 5, 2026 🟦 PP: 32% | 135 🟥 PSOE: 26% | 104 🟩 Vox: 19% | 68 🟧 FrA: 7% | 11 🟨 ERC: 2% | 9 🟩 EhB: 1% | 7 #️⃣ JxC: 1% | 6 ⚖️ Majority: 176 📅 Upcoming election: November 29
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🇳🇱 Netherlands | House of Representatives nowcast update — October 30, 2026 🟥 PRO: 29 (+9) ⬛ PVV: 19 (-7) ⬛ JA21: 18 (+9) 🟩 D66: 15 (-11) 🟦 VVD: 14 (-8) 🟩 CDA: 13 (-5) 🟫 FvD: 12 (+5) ... +/- vs. October 2025 election
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🇫🇷 France | Presidential Election polling averages — October 23, 2026 Runoff scenarios: ⚫ Le Pen - 54.5% 🔵 Philippe - 45.5% ⚫ Le Pen - 55.4% 🔴 Glucksmann - 44.6% ⚫ Le Pen - 56.3% 🟡 Attal - 43.7% ⚫ Le Pen - 68.0% 🟣 Mélenchon - 32.0%
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🇩🇪 Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update — October 22, 2026 ➡️ AfD: 28% | 206 (+3) ⬛ Union: 19% | 137 (-1) 🟩 GRN: 15% | 110 (+1) 🟥 SPD: 14% | 98 (-2) 🟪 Linke: 11% | 78 (-1) — 🟨 FDP: 4.2% | 0 (=) 🟪 BSW: 2.9% | 0 (=) +/- vs. October 7
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Josh Housden@JoshHousdenOct 21
❗️📊 Latest version of the Nowcast UK elections sandbox is now live. Set vote share, vote concentration, incumbent effects and correlation to various geographic & demographic attributes. In theory, there are no limits to the results you can generate 🔗 nowcast.uk/sandbox
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Image from Josh Housden (@JoshHousden)
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Josh Housden@JoshHousdenOct 15
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — October 15, 2026 🟥 LAB: 27% | 291 (-120) ➡️ RFM: 23% | 114 (+109) 🟦 CON: 20% | 106 (-15) 🟧 LDM: 10% | 65 (-7) 🟩 GRN: 10% | 9 (+5) 🟨 SNP: 3% | 34 (+25) 🔲 PLC: 2% | 9 (+5) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 nowcast.uk/projection
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🇩🇰 Denmark | Folketing nowcast update — October 15 2026 🟥 A: 21% | 37 (-1) 🟨 O: 13% | 23 (+7) 🟪 F: 11% | 19 (-1) 🟩 C: 10% | 17 (+4) ℹ️ I: 10% | 17 (+1) 🟧 Ø: 8% | 13 (+2) 🟦 V: 7% | 12 (-6) 🟦 Æ: 7% | 12 (+2) 🟪 B: 6% | 11 (+1) 🟪 M: 6% | 10 (-4) ... +/- vs. 2026 election
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🇦🇹 Austria | Legislative Election Nowcast update — October 10, 2026 ⬛ FPÖ: 39% | 73 (+2) 🟦 ÖVP: 21% | 38 (+1) 🟥 SPÖ: 14% | 26 (-5) 🟩 GRN: 13% | 25 (+4) 🟪 NEOS: 7% | 13 (-2) 🟫 KPÖ: 4% | 8 (=) — +/- vs. July, 2026
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🇩🇪 Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update — October 7, 2026 ➡️ AfD: 28% | 203 (-3) ⬛ Union: 19% | 138 (-5) 🟩 GRN: 15% | 109 (+1) 🟥 SPD: 14% | 100 (+8) 🟪 Linke: 11% | 79 (-1) — 🟨 FDP: 4.0% | 0 (=) 🟪 BSW: 2.9% | 0 (=) +/- vs. September 22
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🇸🇰 Slovakia | Legislative Election Nowcast update — October 5, 2026 #️⃣ PS: 19% | 37 (=) 🟥 Smer: 17% | 32 (=) 🟫 Rep: 12% | 22 (+1) 🔲 Slov: 9% | 17 (+1) 🟩 SaS: 8% | 15 (-1) 🟪 Hlas: 8% | 14 (-1) 🟨 KDH: 7% | 13 (=) — 🟦 Dem: 4.8% | 0 (=) +/- vs. September 3
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🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election (Sejm) Nowcast update — October 3, 2026 🟧 KO: 33% | 189 (+9) 🟦 PiS: 21% | 123 (-4) ⬛ Kon: 14% | 71 (-6) 🟫 KKP: 9% | 38 (-2) 🟥 Lew: 8% | 31 (+5) ➡️ R+: 5% | 8 (-2) — 🟪 Raz: 4.5% 🟩 PSL: 3.0% 🟨 PL50: 1.2% +/- vs. September 18
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🇨🇿 Czechia | Chamber of Deputies Nowcast update — September, 2026 🟦 ANO: 31% | 88 (+8) 🟪 STAN: 16% | 42 (+20) ↔️ ODS: 13% | 35 (+8)* ⬛ Piráti: 8% | 19 (+1) 🟫 SPD: 7% | 16 (+1) — #️⃣ AUTO: 4.6% | 0 (-13) 🟨 KDU: 3.0% | 0 (-16)* 🟪 TOP: 3.0% | 0 (-9)* +/- vs. 2025 *Ex-SPOLU
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Josh Housden@JoshHousdenSep 30
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — September 30, 2026 🟥 LAB: 26% | 260 (-151) ➡️ RFM: 23% | 120 (+115) 🟦 CON: 20% | 120 (-1) 🟧 LDM: 11% | 69 (-3) 🟩 GRN: 11% | 7 (+3) 🟨 SNP: 3% | 39 (+30) 🔲 PLC: 2% | 12 (+8) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 nowcast.uk/projection
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🇪🇦 Spain | Legislative Election Nowcast update — September 24, 2026 🟦 PP: 32% | 139 (+2) 🟥 PSOE: 26% | 104 (-4) 🟩 Vox: 19% | 65 (=) 🟪 Sumar: 6% | 9 (+1) 🟪 Podem: 3% | 2 (=) | 🟧 ERC: 1.9% | 8 (=) 🟩 EhB: 1.4% | 7 (=) #️⃣ JxC: 1.3% | 6 (+1) ... +/- vs. September 8
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🇩🇪 Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update — September 22, 2026 ➡️ AfD: 28% | 206 (+1) ⬛ Union: 20% | 143 (-9) 🟩 GRN: 15% | 108 (+4) 🟥 SPD: 13% | 92 (+2) 🟪 Linke: 11% | 80 (+2) — 🟨 FDP: 4.4% | 0 (=) 🟪 BSW: 3.7% | 0 (=) +/- vs. August 22
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🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election Nowcast update — September 18, 2026 🟧 KO: 31% | 180 (+10) 🟦 PiS: 21% | 127 (=) ⬛ Kon: 15% | 77 (=) 🟫 KKP: 9% | 40 (-5) 🟥 Lew: 8% | 26 (=) ➡️ R+: 6% | 10 (-5) — 🟪 Raz: 4.7% | 0 🟩 PSL: 3.4% | 0 🟨 PL50: 1.4% | 0 +/- vs. September 3
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Josh Housden@JoshHousdenSep 15
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — September 15, 2026 🟥 LAB: 25% | 258 (-153) ➡️ RFM: 22% | 127 (+122) 🟦 CON: 19% | 113 (-8) 🟧 LDM: 11% | 70 (-2) 🟩 GRN: 11% | 8 (+4) 🟨 SNP: 3% | 39 (+30) 🔲 PLC: 2% | 12 (+8) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 nowcast.uk/projection
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Josh Housden@JoshHousdenSep 15
🟣 Left Party (V) vote share is a good example of the shift away from a north/south divide towards an urban/rural one Any correlation they had to latitude has been almost completely neutralised since 2022
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Josh Housden (@JoshHousden) profile pictureJosh Housden@JoshHousdenSep 15
🇸🇪 - Big takeaway from the Swedish election is the 'straightening' of the urban/rural divide Based on preliminary data, the progressive opposition gain +2pts on average in large towns & major cities, while simultaneously losing -2pts in the most rural municipalities
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Josh Housden@JoshHousdenSep 15
🇸🇪 - Big takeaway from the Swedish election is the 'straightening' of the urban/rural divide Based on preliminary data, the progressive opposition gain +2pts on average in large towns & major cities, while simultaneously losing -2pts in the most rural municipalities
Image from Josh Housden (@JoshHousden)
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