Investor. World-curious. Change & progress. Ambitious, in pursuit of freedom. Libertarian. Sharing my investment journey transparently - Not Financial Advice
Joined April 2018
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🧵 Thread and summary of the accounts I've followed that presented or discussed/mentioned the thesis of a final grand top in the 2030s, followed by a lost decade, instead of the common narratives of:
🔻 "AI is already the biggest Bubble ever" / "the biggest crash" / "a recession worse than 1929" happening soon, not years from now
🔻 the grand finale top happening around 2028 or before the 2030s
The accounts are listed below, and in the replies you'll find several of their charts and posts for reference.
🔹@ChifoiCristian
🔹@RESMcycles
🔹@CryptoCycleGod
🔹@TheCyclesTrader
🔹@SethCL now posting on @GroupFinom
You can bookmark this thread, as it is meant to be a reference post we can easily come back to in the future, instead of searching for posts individually in the X information chaos. I might keep adding charts and posts in the replies as they are published in the future.
You can also share it if you want to raise awareness of this thesis and the accounts above, some of which deserve many more followers, in my view.
And if this thesis eventually plays out, I want this thread to serve as a record of who was discussing it years in advance. Credit where credit is due!
OV Markets retweeted
Bitcoin Transition Daily Cycles
Bitcoin has been exhibiting a daily cycle that is on average 70 days long for at least a year and a half.
The legacy bitcoin daily cycle is ~60 days and one of the main daily cycle lengths in the Risk Rhythm is ~80 days. So this is the average of those two cycle lengths, further enforcing the idea that Bitcoin is undergoing a transition to align with the Risk Rhythm of the S&P 500.
If this is to hold, we should expect a daily cycle low right about now. Otherwise, we might have seen a daily cycle failure, and the best case scenario would be waiting until a mid-cycle low in mid-November for the next impulsive move.
$BTC $IBIT
OV Markets retweeted
#DailyBBbands
Look at that prolonged squeeze of the daily BB bands we have been in.
It´s starting to look like the pre-pump phase back in August and the smaller squeeze back in September.
The bigger the squeeze, the larger the...yep, that.
Keep cooking.
Some data
First of many seasonal tailwinds for the S&P 500 begins tomorrow! The 8 trading day period, from 5 days before to 3 days after midterm elections, is incredibly bullish.
Since 1950, $SPX has gained in 18 of 19 instances, with a median return of +2.7%.
ALT Bluekurtic Market Insights heatmap showing S&P 500 performance from 5 trading days before to 3 trading days after U.S. midterm elections since 1950. The S&P 500 posted positive returns in 18 of 19 instances (94.7%), with an average gain of 2.8% and a median gain of 2.7%. The table also displays historical returns, maximum losses, and drawdowns for each midterm election year.
$XRP still holding the rectangle pattern, the 200w & the 200d (wicks but no close below)
OV Markets retweeted
Well it's even worse than just a personal data leak. We cannot continue to expect mass retail and the average person to self custody with this kind of issues popping up right and left. xitter.cf/KeystoneWallet/status/…
Just my personal view on the recent DeFi events.
But the KelpDAO rsETH incident and its current impact on AAVE and more broadly on DeFi are just reinforcing my perception that my risks of having some funds onchain now outweigh my advantages, and I will therefore continue moving it offchain.
The sovereign aspect to transact freely in a paperless way, the DeFi yield available, and the ability to take loans onchain against my assets (knowing that Lombard loans will probably be widely available in the near future against BTC/ETH ETFs) are currently not enough to justify me & my family bearing the risks of:
- Wrench attacks and kidnapping
- Protocol hacks or exploits
- Various online hacks, bugs, and phishing
- Seeds mismanagement
- Inheritance planning complexities for my heirs
Of course things can evolve for the better and future reassessment will be done.
Well it's even worse than just a personal data leak. We cannot continue to expect mass retail and the average person to self custody with this kind of issues popping up right and left. xitter.cf/KeystoneWallet/status/…
OV Markets retweeted
Don't fall for the comparison between the Gold/Silver June/July bottom (now making new lows) and the Bitcoin June bottom, suggesting that Bitcoin could now follow Gold and Silver and make new lows too.
There are several important differences that make this comparison no longer reasonable or convincing to me.
To name a few:
🔸 Bitcoin's bottom was formed with a weekly RSI bullish divergence. This did not happen for Gold and Silver.
🔸 Bitcoin made a Higher High (HH) in both price and RSI, while Gold and Silver made Lower Highs (LH) in both price and RSI.
🔸 Bitcoin's weekly Supertrend flipped green and bullish, while Gold and Silver remained red and bearish.
Of course, I would never tell you it's a 100% guarantee that Bitcoin won't make new lows. But these are different technical structures. Bitcoin now shows a bullish structure, whereas Gold and Silver have maintained their bearish structures.
So I don't think we can simply compare them and expect the same outcome.
Just my view.
OV Markets retweeted
And if you're too lazy to watch the full video, here is one chart I'll take out of it, offering another perspective supporting the points I've been trying to discuss with people calling for the bubble to crash and the economy to enter its worst recession ever.
Corporate profit trends are clearly very different from what we saw leading into 2000 and 2008.
This chart doesn't support the thesis of an imminent massive bubble crash or a recession arriving in the next few months.
Maybe share this one and try to ask, politely and genuinely, for the point of view of people calling for a massive crash coming imminently.
Always interesting to hear other points of view.
I can´t believe that @jvisserlabs puts this amount of alpha out there for free. What a chad.
As I said before, being stupid in this day and age is a choice.
youtube.com/watch?v=CjquP0fu…
Don't fall for the comparison between the Gold/Silver June/July bottom (now making new lows) and the Bitcoin June bottom, suggesting that Bitcoin could now follow Gold and Silver and make new lows too.
There are several important differences that make this comparison no longer reasonable or convincing to me.
To name a few:
🔸 Bitcoin's bottom was formed with a weekly RSI bullish divergence. This did not happen for Gold and Silver.
🔸 Bitcoin made a Higher High (HH) in both price and RSI, while Gold and Silver made Lower Highs (LH) in both price and RSI.
🔸 Bitcoin's weekly Supertrend flipped green and bullish, while Gold and Silver remained red and bearish.
Of course, I would never tell you it's a 100% guarantee that Bitcoin won't make new lows. But these are different technical structures. Bitcoin now shows a bullish structure, whereas Gold and Silver have maintained their bearish structures.
So I don't think we can simply compare them and expect the same outcome.
Just my view.
💯
Everyone on CT reads the market perfectly and they get all the swings, all the bottoms and tops perfectly.
Well, I can tell you that I don´t. My account goes up and down like yours - over time I tend to do very well but I will never claim that I´m the master of this market.
Most of CT will post cryptic messages at every point in the cycle so that can pick up that post later on convincing you that they capitalised on it and took every trade perfectly.
If that was the case they would certainly have $50m in their account by now. But do they?
Don´t fall for these larps´ fairy tails. Keep doing the basics and hopefully over time you will have more than with what you started with, that´s the goal.
I will leave the "imaginary" trophies for all those scammers, who for the vast majority, the money that they make is with YOUR money´s subscriptions.
Follow people for value they add to your own analysis, not for the perceived success they have - most of it is just smoke and mirrors.
OV Markets retweeted
#Gold Another view of the speculative thesis for those following the ~8 year cycles.
Context & Hypothesis:
🔸 Assuming Gold follows an ~8y cycle, the next major cycle low could occur somewhere around 2029/30.
🔸 The major top of this cycle may have already been reached in January 2026 given the overheating, overextension and mass attention signs we got.
🔸 A Half Cycle Low (HCL ~4y low) could be due somewhere around Q4 2026 / Q1 2027.
🔸 The bounce from this HCL would not produce a new major expansion phase.
🔸 Instead, Gold would still need more time to reset its momentum and would continue moving sideways/down, with choppy PA until 2029/30.
🔸 This would approx align with the timing of the next major stock market low I'm expecting around 2029 (Reminder on the thesis, 2028 ~7y cycle top, followed by a significant correction during the 2028/29 Shmita year - next official recession?)
🔸 From there, a new expansion phase could begin around 2029/30, coming out of the correction.
Just my thoughts of the day.
What do we think?
Interesting discussion below with Rufio and some thoughts on Gold.
As mentioned below, I think some people are expecting a major bottom for Gold in the coming months, perhaps in Q4 or Q1 next year, before accelerating higher again.
That's one possible thesis. But on the other side, looking at previous strong advances and major tops in Gold, it historically took quite some time for momentum to properly reset, with the weekly RSI eventually going to the oversold area sometimes several times.
So I would think that Gold might still need more time to properly reset before entering its next acceleration phase, which might not come as quickly as people think.
What do we think?
OV Markets retweeted
#SPX US Real Total Return Wealth chart, updated with latest values released in October
Reminder that this is basically 181 years of US stock market history, adjusted for inflation and with dividends reinvested.
Some data:
🔹 Long term CAGR: 6.81%
🔹 Currently +40.5% above historical trend
🔹 +1.01σ above trend
🔹 Still 28.4% below the +2σ upper band
🔹The major historical valuation peaks of 1901, 1929, 1966 and 1999 all occurred around +1.8σ to +2.2σ above trend.
The market is continuing to grind up, and is still well below the historical extreme valuation zone that people called "bubbles".
binancecoin:native really did not want to lose the 50w so far. Look at these 3 clean touches in yellow.
Also some seeing some potential iH&S in the making here.
And if you're too lazy to watch the full video, here is one chart I'll take out of it, offering another perspective supporting the points I've been trying to discuss with people calling for the bubble to crash and the economy to enter its worst recession ever.
Corporate profit trends are clearly very different from what we saw leading into 2000 and 2008.
This chart doesn't support the thesis of an imminent massive bubble crash or a recession arriving in the next few months.
Maybe share this one and try to ask, politely and genuinely, for the point of view of people calling for a massive crash coming imminently.
Always interesting to hear other points of view.
I can´t believe that @jvisserlabs puts this amount of alpha out there for free. What a chad.
As I said before, being stupid in this day and age is a choice.
youtube.com/watch?v=CjquP0fu…
