Founder, https://xitter.cf/t.co/N8AxkdoJ1z ₿itcoin & crypto data analysis Particle physics grad

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Joined May 2009
9,000+ investors use On-Chain Mind to read the market through the data, not the noise. 300+ metrics and risk models covering Bitcoin, crypto and equities, plus our newsletter on what actually moved and why. Start free 👉🏼 onchainmind.io/join
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A correction from $85K to $80K and suddenly my feed is flooded with red thumbnails screaming the bear market is back. What happened to the hardcore Bitcoiners from previous cycles? We wouldn’t have even blinked at a 5% blip back then. Now everyone’s losing their minds.
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Do we still believe in Uptober?
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Bitcoin’s Capitalised Price is sitting at $82K. Unlike the Realised Price, which gives every coin one vote, Capitalised Price gives every dollar invested one vote. It reveals where the bulk of capital entered the market, and how far apart investors’ cost bases really are.
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Every Whale receives a report every month, plus a full quarterly edition. Whale pricing rises on 1st November. Join before then and your rate is locked for life. The Q3 Whale Report is free to read 👇🏼
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Bitcoin’s Volatility Waves sits at 44 versus a 5-year average of 65. Low volatility isn’t safety. It’s stored energy waiting for a catalyst.
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Bitcoin is attracting $683M in daily capital inflows. Flows have stayed positive for 66 straight days, even as BTC fell 4.3%.
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Tom | On-Chain Mind retweeted
Strategy now owes 18,818 BTC a year in preferred dividends and interest. That is more Bitcoin than it bought in the entire 2022 bear market. In June, that bill nearly broke the flywheel. I built a brand new model to show exactly how close it came 👇🏼
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Strategy now owes 18,818 BTC a year in preferred dividends and interest. That is more Bitcoin than it bought in the entire 2022 bear market. In June, that bill nearly broke the flywheel. I built a brand new model to show exactly how close it came 👇🏼
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Bitcoin is closing in on the 6-12 month Realised Price at $86K, a level that helped kickstart the previous bull market.
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Almost nobody has ever been ruined by sitting on their hands through a quiet market. The accounts that get destroyed are the ones that couldn't stand the silence and went looking for something to do with it
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10 years ago, JPMorgan wouldn’t touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot pole. Now they’re predicting it could be the best-performing asset of the decade, with forecasts that still look heavily sandbagged. Eventually, they all learn.
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Only 22% of 2022 bottom buyers sold for more than a 2x gain, and just 11% held on for more than a 4x. Nailing the bottom clearly wasn't enough. I tracked the coins bought at every cycle low since 2011 to see who held, who sold, and why time decided the outcome👇🏼
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Institutional demand now accounts for 42% of this week’s Bitcoin capital flows. Spot ETFs contributed $68M this week, while organic demand still leads at $97M. TradFi wrappers are becoming a major driver of the market.
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Tom | On-Chain Mind retweeted
On average, half of all Bitcoin bought at cycle lows was sold within just 210 days. For 2022 bottom buyers, that meant selling around $26k, before the real rally had even started. Every cycle back to 2011 shows the same pattern, and it says a lot about how today's bottom buyers are likely to behave👇🏼
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On average, half of all Bitcoin bought at cycle lows was sold within just 210 days. For 2022 bottom buyers, that meant selling around $26k, before the real rally had even started. Every cycle back to 2011 shows the same pattern, and it says a lot about how today's bottom buyers are likely to behave👇🏼
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Bitcoin has now generated $1.75 trillion in cumulative gross realised profits. An extraordinary amount of wealth realised over Bitcoin’s lifetime.
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Bitcoin’s 50th-percentile MVRV price band sits at $90.7K. Even after the recovery, price remains below its historical median valuation. We haven’t even reclaimed the midpoint of Bitcoin’s long-term valuation range yet.
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