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My deal juices are flowing and it’s exciting and a full circle moment for me, really
Went from a few years in the deal making business (investment banking)
-> to a decade plus in the analytical business (fundamental HF), ivory tower environment and deep thinking
-> back to the deal side, earnest shot at buying a small business last year with both brokered + off market approach, direct response outreach relationship building focused (enjoyed this)
-> greenfielding a niche recruiting business using a lot of the learnings from M&A deal sourcing and relationship building, with very deep analytical / domain expertise / system focus
I’m back baby. This is essentially human capital deal brokerage, but I’m trying to build something that is much higher touch and intentional than the Wild West of “cold calling based on vibes”, resume shotgunning generalist recruiters, who will face enormous pressure going forward
More like exec search for the middle market. Very strategic in GTM and match making. An inch wide and a mile deep.
Early days but some small wins and it’s exhilarating
Got another candidate today with zero LinkedIn presence shocked at my cold calling them
HOW DID YOU FIND ME, HOW DO YOU KNOW WHERE I LIVE, I NEVER GOT A CALL LIKE THIS
Guys and gals, this one was really quite simple
I look up the free ZoomInfo org chart because I'm cheap and I don't want to pay for their crap
And then I go to US Phonebook and I look up your cell # and home address
And then I call you anywhere between 15 and 20 times
There's no magic to it
Guy I talked to today was like
"How in the world did you find me?
I've never ever had a headhunter call me."
Doesn't maintain a LinkedIn profile.
Doesn't maintain ANY sort of online presence.
I said, look dude...
My custom AI process tracked down your name and cell phone number on some random environmental fuel tank spillage incident you reported in 2017
And then I traced you all the way up to the present day, including where you live and what you eat for dinner every night
"Understood," he said.
I swear the gym at 4 in the afternoon may as well be a happy hour at a bar
Everyone so freaking slow
Everybody standing around chit chatting
It’s a DISASTER
I got a thousand reps to go mothertrucker
Get out of my way
I swear I’m witnessing the downfall of Rome, of an entire civilization, in slow motion, right in front of me
Haven’t you guys heard?
The robots are coming for us all, so y’all better hurry up and get more mechanical REAL QUICK
Buddy of mine (trades background) just terminated LOI yesterday on a contractor deal he'd first seen in February
8+ months of work, $10K+ of service provider costs out the window
Brutal
Deal basically collapsed over net income on reviewed P&L coming in $150K lower than on preliminary financials that broker SDE was based on (allegedly, broker had known but not brought this up to him for a few months)
On these small deals, that's a HUGE issue
Called him an hour ago. He's taking it well. Landmine avoided. Already at his next broker meeting.
I am sure an experience like this washes out 60%+ of first-time searchers. Incredibly frustrating.
This guy? He attacks the next deal with a sharpened knife. GOOD.
“Build, Don’t Buy”
How Former Acquisition Entrepreneurs Choose the Pain of the Startup Game Over 6X Levered Small Plumbing Cos with 3 Trucks
😂😂😂
Replying to @alex_puryear @OneManLBO
I searched for over a year and building was the way to go. Shits hard both ways, we atleast earned our right to compete with no debt first. Someone needs to write the book build don’t buy.
Starting from scratch is insanely hard (going through the slog right now)
But for a lot of these small SBA deals, it really is a buy vs. build decision
You have to be truly “built for build mode” (not just a clever pun)
But if you belong to the choice group of people who can execute (kudos to Brandon), your risk adjusted returns on capital may just be way better starting from scratch
Lat last year I almost bought a plumbing business for 750k. Would’ve have to personally guarantee a 10 yr SBA loan for a business doing 80k a month in revenue where half the net profit went to debt service.
Instead I took the down payment money and opted to start my own from scratch. 6 months in we hit the same monthly revenue as the other business but with no debt.
When analyzing a business to buy the question should always be asked, what would it take to start this and would I be better off in 12 months?
Spent the weekend in McCall, a scenic lake town about 2 hours north of Boise.
A family weekend, and a weekend of quiet reflection.
Hard to believe that we passed our one-year Idahoversary a couple of weeks ago. Time flies.
Moving our family here remains a top 3 life decision (getting married to my wife is #1, and having kids #2, of course... what do you expect me to say).
For a long time, we had this very strong, intuitive gut feeling about Idaho, not simply as a place, but as a broader conceptual idea. Call it a vision.
A sense of longing for it, or better said, the absence of longing and pure contentment in the moment whenever we spent time and made memories here over the last decade.
The idea of packing up and going all in on this place formed gradually over many years, coming on like waves, impossible to suppress, until eventually, we pulled the trigger and went for it, exiting an establishment path that I will always be grateful for, but which wasn't serving us anymore going forward.
As you grow older, you realize the most valuable commodity is not money or material things (though a healthy baseline certainly helps, and we are very lucky), but time and epic moments. Memento mori, always.
We needed to work backwards from the end vision in mind. We needed to tear out the plumbing. We needed to re-base absolutely everything in our lives on a foundation we were excited about. An epic foundation.
We needed to be highly intentional in choosing the right environment to build a life in for the very long term. A place where (and I hate to use a financial term) we could compound for the next, hopefully many decades, not just capital, but relationships, and active pursuits, and everything that was important to our family.
In short, we needed to go all in on what we wanted out of life, and to get laser focused on a holistic pursuit of our family vision.
No lukewarm, passive existence. No half measures. We wanted epic, as an existential matter.
Idaho remained the ultimate goal, always, the top of our priority list. All the details around it, the ultimate shape, a function of a myriad little decisions, was simply secondary structural scaffolding that we would figure out in time.
During my acquisition search, I learned early on just how non-negotiable it really was for us to be here. It was truly "Idaho or bust", and I never really cared how ridiculous that seemed to a lot of people.
Because if you have a dream, you have to be obsessed with the idea, and be somewhat delusional.
In your own head, it will make all the sense in the world.
And at the end of your life, that is the only thing that matters. You have a duty to yourself and your family, and you don't have to please anybody else.
It's hard to convey in words how epic Idaho is, how during every little roadtrip you look out the window at the golden, sunkissed desert hills and the beauty of it all takes your breath away.
How kind the people are.
How there is a sense of "enough".
Anyone who grew up in the 90s can resonate with the sense of longing for that fleeting feeling of endless possibility on a Friday night, kids biking around the neighborhood without a care in the world, an idea thought lost for a long time.
But now found again. Here, by our family.
I am not anywhere close to having it all figured out professionally (and I may not get close for a long time, hello first-time entrepreneurship endeavors for an ivory tower intellectual bonehead), but the goalposts of my scoreboard in life have moved drastically over the last few years.
I'm coming up on 39 years on this planet next month. If for some reason I were to depart prematurely from this life, and all I ever accomplished was setting a solid home foundation in an epic place for my family, where my kids will have a spectacular upbringing (along with perhaps a philosophical roadmap for life, or at least a list of ideas of what is truly important, which they will ultimately have to figure out for themselves)...
I'll be a very happy man.
Disappointing outcome this week
Internal talent acquisition team at major, major potential customer who I'd been hounding for 2+ months (probably 20+ emails and calls) finally said:
"We good, don't need to work with you right now."
This was despite having a warm relationship with internal operational sponsor who wanted to work with me because of strong MEP candidate I had in hand
In short, I got gate-checked. Hard.
But guess what!
1) I brushed it off quite quickly, on to the next
2) It sometimes is easier to go for the small and mid-sized clients, who are eager to hire from this big account (dozens of high-quality candidates work there that I now don't have to put on my do-not-poach list)
3) This was the first run of many at this account, there will be others
Onwards, all valuable experience
I now get why enterprise sales is a totally different ballgame
Guy I talked to today was like
"How in the world did you find me?
I've never ever had a headhunter call me."
Doesn't maintain a LinkedIn profile.
Doesn't maintain ANY sort of online presence.
I said, look dude...
My custom AI process tracked down your name and cell phone number on some random environmental fuel tank spillage incident you reported in 2017
And then I traced you all the way up to the present day, including where you live and what you eat for dinner every night
"Understood," he said.
Largely agree with this
With AI, mechanical execution is being commoditized, so proprietary information and relationships are the new moat
But I also think you need to have the right mental models and business understanding
LLMs allow you to build a very powerful bazooka
But you still need to understand what to aim at…
And that requires tons of time and work and experience
So smart people + tools on steroids = magic and dangerous combination
The tools themselves are not enough on a standalone basis
There is absolutely no alpha left in being an excel monkey better than anyone else
This was already the case before AI, but more true today than ever before
I am literally watching Claude in Excel build a forecast model better than 80% of analysts while I write this
The hours of work it would take to put together a coherent analysis can now be done in minutes with proper prompting and instructions
All the alpha in the investing world now sits outside of your desk. This includes talking to management teams, experts, former employees, competitors, trying the product itself, and so on
Fundamentally think that the job of an investor will slowly start to resemble that of a journalist
The real work will be done through conversations that an LLM cannot capture in the open web or inside of documents that everyone has access to
Tons of mid-career professionals in their 30s right now wondering if they should take the jump into buy or build entrepreneurship w/ young families
The question of financial runway comes up A LOT
Basically 3 key drivers
(personal finance 101):
- Housing
- Healthcare
- Education
Housing hardest to solve, but my vote goes towards renting (for now). The monthly cash flow delta vs. owning is near multi decade high. Lock in several years if you can (can always negotiate exit).
Healthcare: if you’re healthy (no major preexisting), way more solvable than I assumed using CrowdHealth + DPC (less than $600/mo for our family of 4). Exchange insurance rates are outrageous and in a doom loop / vicious cycle
Education: move to a good public school district with an active PTO that does tons of fundraising. They do exist, we live in one now. You can get private education level quality (or near that)
A lot of this comes down stashing your pride and not conforming to what society tells you to do.
“You need to own your house. You should never send your kids to public school.”
Nonsense. Be a value investor with your monthly opex. Have an open mind and go with the economically sensible option.
Moving out of a HCOL metro, not wearing golden handcuffs and be chained to an expense treadmill is incredibly mentally freeing and allows you to take larger risks
My wife kicked me out of the house and send me to the gym with the kids
I may not hit the weekly limit before 2 PM reset
THIS FEELS LIKE A MAJOR DEFEAT
GOOD THING I CAN KEEP WORKING ON MY PHONE BETWEEN BENCH PRESS SETS
THERE'S NO WAY A HUMAN ANALYST COULD EVER COME UP WITH THIS FORMULA
LIKE, NO WAY
ALL HAIL THE ROBOTS
This whole Claude + Google Sheets native integration is an absolute, absolute dream
I cannot over-emphasize what a complete game changer this is for a spreadsheet junkie
Exactly a year ago I used ChatGPT browser mode on Sheets and it kept breaking and getting stuck
Now everything is code based, no more screenshots reverse engineering, no moving CSVs around, you can build for hours and hours
Absolute tunnel vision, I have no idea where this week went
I don't eat, I don't sleep
I don't want to see my kids
I JUST WANT TO BUILD BUILD BUILD INFRA
(And I can't believe I manually built models for 13 years in finance, this stuff has now reached superhuman levels)
Compiled a sourcing list for a friend in home services space. Key hire down the line, getting ducks in a row.
Resi services is much more offline in terms of LinkedIn presence than commercial construction. So contact data (emails, cell phone numbers) is a challenge.
Or so I thought.
Well, my agentic workflow:
- pulled local permit volume and local public project meeting notes
- identified the right contractors
- found the right individuals (ranked by fit)
- verified active licenses on the state website
- Triangulated among several databases to collect and verify cell phone numbers
It achieved 90%+ coverage for cell phone numbers for the target list
Turns out home services may be more workable than I thought
It is absolutely WILD what you can build today
(Also, the fact that email coverage was so much worse with these SMB individuals, once again drives home the fact that if you are running an ETA proprietary search, you should probably call rather than email)
“I paid 3x really stupidly. nobody wants these, there is an infinite supply of them, you have no competition, don't pay 3x. or do this at all unless you have degen risk tolerance like me.”
Great and insightful thread
My man will crush
9 months post-close on first self-funded search deal, a $300k EBITDA professional edu company bought for 3x:
-standard advice to buy >$500k EBITDA is totally right. I take out >$200k tc including family health insurance, and the resulting (slight) cash-burn is stressful + brutal
The absolute dream scenario for anyone in sales is a LinkedIn MCP connector
Never going to happen
They’re a clunky monopoly walled off to the outside world like North Korea
They want you to use their InMail only to communicate with prospects
Completely dated philosophy in a multi channel world
And so it becomes an arms race between third party integrated scrapers and automations and the LI police trying to jail everyone immediately if they click a button a millisecond too fast
Sir, if you don’t want to get blocked, please copy and paste hundreds of pages manually like it’s the Stone Age
Absolutely ridiculous












