Little personal post. My fall ball team won the championship today. I pitched a complete game, 8k, 3er and went 3-3 at the plate with 2 doubles. I absolutely love being able to still play baseball into my 40s. It’s such a great escape from reality for a few hours a week to get out there and play the game I love.

A guy falls off the top 100. Buy the dip, or take it as a sign to move on?

Joseph Dzierwa, No. 150 overall. His 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st auto last sold around $35, while sellers are asking about $52 across 9 clean listings, a 49% spread. His final 2026 line grades as a top 10% Double-A arm over 131 innings. Does the premium hold?

consensus picks rn: lowest asking 1st autos with the deepest listings wellington aracena $4 sold, $6 ask braden nett $7 ask keyner martinez $5 sold, $8 ask david davalillo $4 sold, $8 ask dylan fien $5 sold, $9 ask supply is there. demand isn't. value or fair?

Four arms, four 1st Bowman Chrome autos, most recent sold prices. Liam Doyle, ranked 29th, last sold near $37. Caden Scarborough, ranked 81st, sold at the same $37. Anthony Eyanson at 35 sold near $52, Carlos Lagrange at 102 near $55. Same price, 52 spots apart.

Four prospects where MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs sit far apart. Cam Caminiti: 39th vs 125th, last sold $47. Jamie Arnold: 55th vs 138th, $28. Caleb Bonemer: 27th vs 101st, $71. Edward Florentino: 32nd vs 78th, $63. Thoughts?

Does an org's development track record change how you value a prospect's card, or not at all?

Two shortstops, both finished 2026 split between Double-A and High-A. Marek Houston, board rank #55, closed the year at a 121 wRC+ and his 1st Bowman auto last sold for $28. Wehiwa Aloy, #158, closed at 124 and last sold for $55. Genuinely torn on these two. Where do you land?

Luke Adams (MIL, ranked 298th) closed out 2026 at Triple-A with a 138 wRC+ and .267/.423/.547 over 295 PA, a top 25% bat at the level. His 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st auto last sold near $22, and sellers are asking about $30, a ~36% gap. Worth the premium?

no cheap way in rn, the lowest active ask is still: josue de paula $292 sold, $300 ask floor franklin arias $140 sold, $175 ask floor rainiel rodriguez $143 sold, $175 ask floor kade anderson $134 sold, $165 ask floor the floor tells you more than the average does.

Arizona Fall League through Oct 22. Caleb Bonemer is 14-for-47 with 3 homers, Arjun Nimmala 12-for-45 with 10 walks, Chase Harlan 12-for-39 with 3 homers, Demetrio Crisantes 11-for-43. Last sold 1st autos run from $34 (Crisantes) to $71 (Bonemer). Tiny samples, raw lines only.

Three Dodgers prospects and what their 1st Bowman autos last sold for. Eduardo Quintero, board rank #21: $70. Emil Morales, #37: $81. Charles Davalan, #121: $38. The board order and the price order don't line up. Thoughts?

Your prospect just got the call-up. Cash out now, or wait for the debut bump?

today's picks. cards asking less than their recent sold number. Henry Lalane: $14 (-$3 vs last sold) Brandon Clarke: $13 (-$4 vs last sold) live on prospectcardradar.com/deals

bryan rincon (PHI, ranked 116th) closed out 2026 at double-A with a 132 wRC+ and .267/.410/.517 over 534 PA, a top 19% bat at the level. his 2023 bowman chrome 1st auto last sold near $35, and sellers are asking about $58, a ~66% gap. worth the premium?

highest asking 1st autos in the tracker rn, sold vs ask: josue de paula $292 sold, $400 ask joshua báez $120 sold, $231 ask franklin arias $140 sold, $230 ask kade anderson $130 sold, $205 ask what sellers want vs what it actually sells for. fair or top?

Christian Zazueta (LAD, ranked 27th) closed out 2026 at Double-A with 12.5 K/9 and a 30% K-BB rate over 103 IP, a top 14% arm at the level. His 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st auto last sold near $32, and sellers are asking about $55, a ~72% gap. Worth the premium?

tightest asking bands on 1st autos rn, sellers basically agree: eduardo quintero $68 sold, asks $82 to $125 alfredo duno $71 sold, asks $95 to $145 chase harlan $38 sold, asks $45 to $75 when every seller agrees, somebody is about to be wrong.

Priciest 1st Bowman autos among pitchers not on the IL list, last sold. Seong-Jun Kim around $131, Ryan Sloan $72, Jarlin Susana $61, Anthony Eyanson $52, Liam Doyle $42. Kim is ranked 202nd, Sloan 10th. How much should rank matter for an arm's card?

Chrome or paper 1st Bowman, does it matter to you?