Former Mayor of #NiagaraFalls, NY. #JHU PhD, #GreatLakes environmentalist, historic preservationist, Dem deerhunter, #Bills, #Sabres
Niagara Falls, New York
Joined January 2015
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You know me as former @NiagaraFallsUSA mayor, but before that I was #armoredwarfare expert, #CFR fellow, US State Dept #NST negotiator, #CUA #Pentagon program director, etc. Resurrecting old ID to stand with #Ukraine today. #BillsMafia
Paul Dyster retweeted
No one can accuse the Russians of lacking audacity. Their maximalist demands are entirely ludicrous, but they serve a distinct purpose, which is to signal that:
1. They do not believe they are losing the conflict.
2. Current American leadership is perhaps amenable to some of their positions.
3. They have no intention of ending the war with Ukraine on terms that respect Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The Russians are aware of the unserious nature of these demands, and, sadly, we have two highly inexperienced and hardly impartial men, Witkoff and Kushner, who are happily willing to give these demands air.
According to the NYT, Russia is demanding that NATO effectively retrench to its 1997 military posture, before the alliance expanded into Central and Eastern Europe. Its demands include:
1. Poland and the Baltic states: NATO's forward deployments and military infrastructure would face major restrictions.
2. NATO enlargement: Russia demands a prohibition on further expansion.
3. Ukraine: Moscow seeks an end to Western weapons deliveries and restrictions on Ukraine's participation in European defense arrangements, including the EU's common defense policy.
4. Nuclear deterrence: Russia demands an end to NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements and wants Britain and France to rule out using their nuclear weapons to defend other European countries.
5. European security: Russian negotiators reportedly invoked Cold War spheres of influence as a model for future arrangements.
These demands go considerably beyond Ukraine. They amount to an attempt to fundamentally restructure Europe's security architecture in Russia's favor, constrain the sovereignty of European states, and undermine NATO's ability to defend its members.
The suitable response from the West is precisely the opposite:
1. Increase military, financial, and intelligence support for Ukraine.
2. Demand that Russia withdraw from every square centimeter of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
3. Demand the release and repatriation of all Ukrainian prisoners of war and the return of every Ukrainian child unlawfully deported or forcibly transferred to Russia.
4. Demand that Russia pay reparations to Ukraine.
Russia is the aggressor. They attempted to take over a sovereign country and failed in their effort. They are now hoping to take advantage of a weak U.S. president before 2029, when their position is likely to deteriorate significantly under a likely Democratic president.
What makes this particularly troubling is that Russia's demands are substantially similar to those it issued in December 2021, shortly before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nearly five years later, Moscow is still advancing many of the same strategic objectives.
Europe, Ukraine, please hold the line. Fortunately, Trump's ability to coerce Europe over the next two years may be limited, as European governments can resist his demands and wait for the next administration.
nytimes.com/2026/11/13/us/po…
Paul Dyster retweeted
Carney: Canada will never abandon its NATO allies or give Russia the right to decide Europe’s future
The Canadian prime minister rejected the idea that Moscow could determine Europe’s security architecture. He recalled that 2,500 Canadian troops are stationed in Latvia, where Canada leads a NATO brigade.
“The security architecture of a free Europe will be determined by a free Europe and NATO, not by Russia through a repeat of the Minsk agreements,” Mark Carney said.
He also stated that Canada would “never” abandon its support for any other NATO member, adding: “We are not going to create a sanitary cordon for Russia.”
Paul Dyster retweeted
Today, the promises of transhumanism and posthumanism are multiplying. These are ideological currents according to which, sooner or later, technology will eliminate all disease and pain, as well as aging and even death itself. Precisely because scientific progress is a supreme achievement of human intelligence, it must not be confused with a privilege reserved for millionaires seeking immortality, while entire peoples suffer from poverty and oppression. In the face of this mirage, which promotes the illusion of human beings perfected by cybernetics and biotechnology, Christian anthropology reminds us that a limitation is not a manufacturing defect, but rather the very condition of human grandeur. #ApostolicJourney #Peru #MagnificaHumanitas vatican.va/content/leo-xiv/e…
Paul Dyster retweeted
The peace talks are failing because Putin still believes he can win the war, and because Trump, Kushner and Witkoff encourage this belief. By pressuring Ukraine, not Russia, they are prolonging the conflict, which will kill more people.
Paul Dyster retweeted
Thank you, Canada. Neighbors help neighbors. That's what friendship and leadership look like.
Washington may have temporarily forgotten this, but the American people never will. We are grateful.
Paul Dyster retweeted
Sorry for the long-ass post, I did some OSINT shit.
I pulled live public flight feeds, weather radar status, and space weather data to see what's actually going on during today's nationwide FAA grounding.
TL;DR: radar, GPS, and weather sensors are all working fine. What broke is the long-distance communications network that lets the FAA's 22 regional air traffic control centers talk to high-altitude planes and hand them off to each other.
When people think of air traffic control, they picture the glass tower at an airport. Those towers only handle takeoffs, landings, and nearby airspace. Once a plane climbs out, it's handed off to one of 22 regional Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs) — giant facilities that manage high-altitude cruising traffic across whole regions of the country.
Normally, those 22 centers are regionally isolated: if one loses power or a local fiber line, neighboring centers absorb or route traffic around it. Having all 22 degrade at once is virtually unheard of because it means a shared national backbone failed, leaving no healthy neighbor to take over.
That's why the FAA's Command Center used such stark, blanket wording ("Due to extraordinary circumstances and for reasons of safety... all airports are ground stopped until further notice"*) — it's standard protocol when a national-level freeze has to happen immediately before engineers even know how long repairs will take ("safety issue" means "oh shit, stop" in aviation circles, unlike with AI companies).
All 22 centers losing comms at once is, indeed, "extraordinary circumstances".
Here's what the live data shows:
1. US airspace is emptying out fast.
Normally on a Friday evening, thousands of planes are in the air over the US. In live tracking data from OpenSky Network, the number of airborne planes over the lower 48 is steadily draining as flights land and no new commercial departures take off:
• 6:36 PM EST: 1,083 airborne
• 6:42 PM EST: 1,035 airborne
• 6:49 PM EST: 990 airborne
There are zero emergency distress codes broadcasting.
2. Major airports are, predictably, stacked.
Looking within 30 miles of major hubs around 6:37 PM EST (`adsb.lol`), almost nothing is moving:
• NYC/JFK area: 8 in the air vs. 67 on the ground
• LAX: 14 in the air vs. 40 on the ground
• Dallas (DFW): 7 vs. 36
• Denver (DEN): 13 vs. 29
• Atlanta (ATL): 5 vs. 25
• Chicago (ORD): 9 vs. 24
• DC (DCA): 8 vs. 22
A lot of the coastal airports had to stop accepting diverts.
3. The few planes still taking off are enlightening.
Across the entire US at 6:36 PM, only aircraft were taking off (that is: below 10,000 feet and climbing). They fell into two clear buckets:
• 3 international widebody jets (`DAL281` out of Seattle, `DAL156` out of NYC, and `AFR71E` out of Newark), matching the FAA's note that international flights are being handled case-by-case.
• Small private planes and a couple of business jets flying under VFR (visual flight rules) — essentially, staying below 18,000 feet, where pilots don't need en-route air traffic control clearances.
Honorable mention to the 1 Coast Guard/military helicopter climbing near Tampa, out of 29 military aircraft tracked nationwide.
4. Weather radar isn't down, and there's no solar storm or GPS jamming.
A lot of people wondered if today's FAA ground stop, rumors of a National Weather Service outage, and Microsoft's 365 outage were all connected. Checking the raw feeds:
• Weather radar: 199 out of 208 US Doppler radar stations are actively sending fresh scans (within the last 15 minutes). The "NWS outage" rumors were website and caching glitches, not offline radar hardware.
• GPS & Space Weather: NOAA space weather is completely quiet (`Kp = 0`), and aircraft GPS accuracy readings across the Midwest and Northeast look totally normal.
• Local airport radar & towers: Local FAA ground-station radar broadcasts and local airport control towers are still up and transmitting.
So, local sensors and local towers are fine.
The failure is specifically in the long-haul telecommunications backbone connecting the FAA's 22 en-route centers to their remote radio sites — which is why en-route controller frequencies went quiet while local towers, weather radars, and low-altitude visual flights kept running.
Federal officials say there's no sign of a cyberattack, so we're waiting on the FAA's technical post-mortem for what tripped the national network.
That doesn't rule out a cyberattack as the root cause of the comms outage; it's a "we don't know".
Shoutout to adsb.lol for their free API.
Paul Dyster retweeted
🎯 Always. Russia has no interest in peace. In fact, it would be a catastrophe for Putin. It is using negotiations to delay action by Europe & US Congress by making it seem like there’s a way to end the war other than Ukrainian victory. There isn’t, and there never has been.
Paul Dyster retweeted
We keep hearing again that Russia supposedly needs security guarantees. Even though no one has attacked Russia for many decades. Since the Second World War, Moscow has not gone through even one decade without starting a war or using military force against another country.
So when the Russians now talk about a security architecture for themselves, or about security guarantees for Russia – they are hardly talking about real security. And peace.
What they really want – is to freely interfere in the affairs of other countries, and to use force whenever they want, and to make sure that no one can support liberty inside Russia because Putin wants to keep his personal power forever and pass on his imperialist and, in many ways, simply fascist views to the next generations.
From a speech at the Danish Folketing. (3/3)
Paul Dyster retweeted
Is the Logan Act still a thing, or are we just no longer enforcing laws for anyone above a certain net worth?
Paul Dyster retweeted
A message to all sane Republicans:
He pardoned 1,600 violent criminals.
You said nothing.
He bulldozed the East Wing.
You said nothing.
He interfered with the release of the Epstein files. You said nothing.
He took over the Kennedy Center and renamed it after himself. You said nothing.
He accepted a $400 million airplane as a personal gift. You said nothing.
He threatened Canada, Cuba, Denmark, Greenland, Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil. You said nothing.
He tariffed just about everyone but Russia, causing inflation and instability worldwide. You said nothing.
He attacked a nation during mediated negotiations. You said nothing.
His ill-conceived war killed 175 children on day one. You said nothing.
He alienated and insulted our allies. You said nothing.
His ICE Army terrorized and murdered U.S. citizens. You said nothing.
He committed murder on the high seas. You said nothing.
He co-opted the Justice Department and directed it to prosecute his political enemies. You said nothing.
It’s time to start talking.
A message to all sane Republicans:
He pardoned 1,600 violent criminals.
You said nothing.
He bulldozed the East Wing.
You said nothing.
He interfered with the release of the Epstein files. You said nothing.
He took over the Kennedy Center and renamed it after himself. You said nothing.
He accepted a $400 million airplane as a personal gift. You said nothing.
He threatened Canada, Cuba, Denmark, Greenland, Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil. You said nothing.
He tariffed just about everyone but Russia, causing inflation and instability worldwide. You said nothing.
He attacked a nation during mediated negotiations. You said nothing.
His ill-conceived war killed 175 children on day one. You said nothing.
He alienated and insulted our allies. You said nothing.
His ICE Army terrorized and murdered U.S. citizens. You said nothing.
He committed murder on the high seas. You said nothing.
He co-opted the Justice Department and directed it to prosecute his political enemies. You said nothing.
It’s time to start talking.
Paul Dyster retweeted
It's not a ballroom. It's a billionaire clubhouse so Piggy and his rich friends can plan how they want to rob hard working American tax payers even more. The shameless desecration of The People's House... Yes! A "ballroom"... No fucking way! #ReleaseTheEpsteinFiles!!!
Paul Dyster retweeted
The fact that a felonious madman who incited an attack on our Capitol could turn around a few years later and desecrate the White House like this, will forever be one of the most shameful stains this nation has ever known.
Paul Dyster retweeted
NEW: On Veterans Day, House Republicans pulled a dirty trick to pass a bill with a voice vote that cuts Veterans Benefits.
thehill.com/homenews/house/6…
Paul Dyster retweeted
Typical autocratic mentality. Big bosses to decide the fate of the small as they wish. No patience for democracy & compromise, just give us one person to pressure and bribe! It’s one reason Trump hates Ukraine, Europe, and Canada—they speak of national interests and negotiation.
Paul Dyster retweeted
NEW: The @nytimes confirms that ICE deliberately electronically "disappeared" tens of thousands of people in detention and ordered contractors to refuse to reveal where they're held to family or lawyers.
30% of all immigrants detained in ICE jails now have their location hidden.
Paul Dyster retweeted
As they say in Russia, appetite grows while eating.
Russia’s top negotiator Medinsky says in Abu Dhabi that Moscow’s demands extend to all of Europe, far beyond Ukraine.
“The security system in Europe works very badly. The entire organism is sick. Ukraine is just an abscess that burst. The organism must be cured as a whole, a band-aid will not be enough.”
Dr Putin to the rescue of poor sick Europe…
The more Trump seeks to mollify Putin, the more megalomaniac the Russian demands become.
Paul Dyster retweeted
The Russians know that they have Trump in their pocket, pushing their interests and serving their needs. The amazing thing is that the press still reports these talks as if the US wants to help negotiate or reach a deal. The Trump administration wants Russia to win.
Paul Dyster retweeted
This Veterans Day, we honor those who raised their right hand to serve this nation. Behind every uniform is an American who made enormous sacrifices when their country asked. Some gave years of their lives. Others gave even more.
To every veteran, service member, and military family: today belongs to you, and we stand by you every day of the year. VoteVets will never stop fighting on your behalf.