Papai & husband 1st! Founder/Partner @ MD Commodities. South America/World agricultural commodities & macroeconomics analysis - Basketball lover & Coach 🤙🏻

🇺🇸🇧🇷
Joined August 2011
How did the Brazilian Agricultural revolution happen? Is the growth sustainable? Where are #soybean #corn production & exports headed? Much of what was said there - over 1yr ago - has already played out, i.e.: ✔️ “🇧🇷 will double 🇺🇸 soybean exports” You don’t want to miss it
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New production & yield records for U.S. soy? U.S. soybean yield potential currently MUCH closer to 54.5-55 bpa (near 🇧🇷's record yields) than 53... Don't believe USDA changes yields in Aug That said if Wx verifies, only a matter of days before 1st of many 54+ bpa's prints
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‘Merica!!! 🇺🇸
The World Cup has turned America into a discovery channel for the rest of the world. And they are not handling it well. In the best possible way. Here is what they are discovering: Free public restrooms. Europeans pay every time. Free water at every restaurant. Just appears. Free refills. Coffee. Sodas. Iced tea. Unlimited. Free chips and salsa before you even order. Free warm bread with dinner. Ice in drinks like civilized people. Air conditioning everywhere. Not a moral debate. A fact. Parking lots attached to the actual place you are going. Drive throughs where the food comes to the car while you sit in it. Ranch dressing by the gallon. Tex-Mex that cannot be explained only experienced. Dental care that actually works. Buccee’s. There are no words for Buccee’s. Then they found the grocery stores. Five of them within one mile. Each one the size of an aircraft hangar. Burgers. Steaks. Brisket. Ribs. Pulled pork. Lamb. Veal. Every cut of every animal ever domesticated by human civilization available in one refrigerated aisle at ten in the morning on a Tuesday. The Germans stood in the meat section for forty five minutes. In silence. Processing. They finally understand why we do not have trains. We have roads wide enough for the cars we actually drive. Parking lots the size of small European countries. Airports in every city worth visiting. Why would we need trains. The Germans are taking ranch home by the bottle. The Dutch found queso and briefly lost the ability to speak. The Japanese are photographing HEB like it is the Louvre. The Czechs are weeping in West, Texas. Welcome to America. Everything is free, enormous, air conditioned, comes with chips, and has five grocery stores within a mile that will sell you any cut of any animal you have ever imagined. Write that down. 🦋
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Pedro H Dejneka retweeted
Este analista revisa el escenario para el maíz safrinha brasileño. "Los recortes de producción en la región sur, actualmente entre 5 y 8 M t, podrían compensarse en gran medida con los aumentos en la región norte. Por cierto, el centro-norte está teniendo rindes propios de Iowa".
SAFRINHA CORN 🇧🇷: Update Yes, there will be cuts to Safrinha However, production cuts in Southern Belt, currently between 5-8 MMTs, could be largely offset by gains in the north… Yields being achieved in the Center-North Belt are UNREAL! “Iowa corn” type stuff!   Result: TOTAL 🇧🇷 CORN: 133 - 138 MMTs Down from ~150-152 last yr (USDA and CONAB both waaaayy too low on last yrs numbers)   Worth noting that 134-138 MMTs would still qualify for a top 2 or top 3 largest crop ever in 🇧🇷!!!
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SAFRINHA CORN 🇧🇷: Update Yes, there will be cuts to Safrinha However, production cuts in Southern Belt, currently between 5-8 MMTs, could be largely offset by gains in the north… Yields being achieved in the Center-North Belt are UNREAL! “Iowa corn” type stuff!   Result: TOTAL 🇧🇷 CORN: 133 - 138 MMTs Down from ~150-152 last yr (USDA and CONAB both waaaayy too low on last yrs numbers)   Worth noting that 134-138 MMTs would still qualify for a top 2 or top 3 largest crop ever in 🇧🇷!!!
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🇧🇷 to TRIPLE 🇺🇸 SOY EXPORTS?!? Not yet, but soon… 🇧🇷 SOYBEANS $50 to $30/ton CHEAPER than 🇺🇸 beans into 🇨🇳 Any talk of “major” 🇨🇳 soy purchases from 🇺🇸 in “old crop” is pure “HOPIUM” 25/26 Soy Exports MMTs: - Brazil: ~115 - US: ~45 By 26/27 🇧🇷 COULD TRIPLE 🇺🇸 soy exports!!!
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RECORD LENGTH in the SOYBEAN COMPLEX!!! ~ 430,000 net long position! Markets often trade PERCEPTION, despite how far from REALITY it may be How much longer can funds “run away from REALITY? No one knows… … but the SPECULATIVE rubber band is getting quite stretched.
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Pedro H Dejneka retweeted
Fondos comprados en niveles récord en el complejo de la soja. "No habría un buen final para ellos. Reservas mundiales de soja por las nubes, las exportaciones de soja de EE. UU. nunca volverán a ser las mismas, el aceite de soja está sobrevalorado, se sembrará más soja este año".
Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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EPA / RVO / Soybean Oil / Meal / Soybeans Pay Attention⚠️ The "speculative elastic band" is extremely stretched, without any actual fundamental justification whatsoever Today's announcement brings nothing "new" to a market that "priced in" expectations well above REALITY
Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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Pedro H Dejneka retweeted
#1: U.S. farmers produced an INCREDIBLE 430+ MMTs of corn in 25/26!!! That was over 40 MMTs OVER the previous record ~390 MMTs!!! #2: FEED DEMAND is OVERSTATED by AT LEAST 10 MMTs! That's correct. The USDA has plugged in a feed demand # completely out of touch with reality So even though US 25/26 corn EXPORTS should be adjusted HIGHER by 3-5 MMTs... FEED DEMAND should be REDUCED by AT LEAST 10-12 MMTs, when it's all said and done Therefore, unless one believes there are MAJOR revisions for the 25/26 crop later in '26 (which is doubtful)... ... 25/26 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS should still hover ~2.3 - 2.4 bb or 58 - 61 MMTs, which would be a new ALL TIME HIGH! FWIW, that is a VERY LARGE STOCK CUSHION going into 26/27
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🧵U.S. CORN EXPORTS ON A TEAR! 25/26 U.S. Corn exports to set a NEW RECORD, by far!!! US Corn Exports are on a tear!!! Should easily reach 87+ MMTs in 25/26!!! For reference, the US has only once exported over 70 MMTs, in 24/25 when it shipped 72. In 22/23, it shipped out only 42 MMTs. Hence, The U.S. should export over DOUBLE the corn it exported 3 years ago!!! While that is an incredible feat... ...it still won't be enough to prevent U.S. CORN STOCKS from likely reaching a new ALL TIME HIGH ~2.3+ bb or nearly 60 MMTs!!! here's why... 🧵
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#1: U.S. farmers produced an INCREDIBLE 430+ MMTs of corn in 25/26!!! That was over 40 MMTs OVER the previous record ~390 MMTs!!! #2: FEED DEMAND is OVERSTATED by AT LEAST 10 MMTs! That's correct. The USDA has plugged in a feed demand # completely out of touch with reality So even though US 25/26 corn EXPORTS should be adjusted HIGHER by 3-5 MMTs... FEED DEMAND should be REDUCED by AT LEAST 10-12 MMTs, when it's all said and done Therefore, unless one believes there are MAJOR revisions for the 25/26 crop later in '26 (which is doubtful)... ... 25/26 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS should still hover ~2.3 - 2.4 bb or 58 - 61 MMTs, which would be a new ALL TIME HIGH! FWIW, that is a VERY LARGE STOCK CUSHION going into 26/27
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Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal): Funds RECORD LONG! Why this shall not end well for them, again... - Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH - US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day") - Soyoil story is overhyped - US soy are increase - etc... The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 say it louder to the folks in the back, Chet! 🤙🏼👊🏼
Replying to @shanaka86
No. Because: (a) Farmers plan and order fertilizer two seasons in advance of planting, especially for large-scale crop production. (b) September/October is when farmers ordered for this spring. (c) Fertilizer is already on hand for this year's spring planting.
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🤦‍♂️Completely OUT of TOUCH headline and "analysis" That said, as always... the "FOOD CRISIS" headline sells We are incredibly FAR from "food crisis" scenario in CORN and WHEAT Now, if the conflicts lasts into next spring... that's a whole other discussion...
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Soybeans x Soybean Oil YTD: Bean Oil: +33% Beans: +12% The TAIL is literally wagging the dog... Because... maybe... perhaps... we COULD see 2-3 MMTs more crush in US?!? While US exports down ~20 MMTs in 5 yrs & SOY AREA to increase 5+ million acres... Makes perfect sense ;)
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Brazil Soybean Export Basis Update 1 picture = 1000 words
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Pedro H Dejneka retweeted
"Does 🇨🇳 'need' 🇺🇸 soybeans"?!? Don't take it from me... Take it from Grok ;), who btw is absolutely spot on
Replying to @ChuoleMarcos
No, China doesn't strictly "need" US soybeans. Its ~100 MMT annual import demand is met mostly by Brazil (87 MMT in 2025 amid record 180 MMT production). US share dropped to 7 MMT due to 2025 tariffs/trade tensions. They buy US beans for diversification (weather/logistics risks from Brazil), quality edges (often better oil/protein specs, lower moisture), and seasonal timing. Trade deals target 25 MMT in 2026, but with Brazilian prices cheaper and recent tariff shifts, actual volume may fall short unless economics align. US exports can shift to other markets, but China remains key buyer overall.
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"Does 🇨🇳 'need' 🇺🇸 soybeans"?!? Don't take it from me... Take it from Grok ;), who btw is absolutely spot on
Replying to @ChuoleMarcos
No, China doesn't strictly "need" US soybeans. Its ~100 MMT annual import demand is met mostly by Brazil (87 MMT in 2025 amid record 180 MMT production). US share dropped to 7 MMT due to 2025 tariffs/trade tensions. They buy US beans for diversification (weather/logistics risks from Brazil), quality edges (often better oil/protein specs, lower moisture), and seasonal timing. Trade deals target 25 MMT in 2026, but with Brazilian prices cheaper and recent tariff shifts, actual volume may fall short unless economics align. US exports can shift to other markets, but China remains key buyer overall.
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