columbus, ohio

NEW: Brian Resnick from Davis Polk restructuring team now on scene at Weil and wind-down now being actively discussed among options: ft.com/content/69ccfcb0-3f5e…

What’s the best age to buy a Rolex?

MORGAN STANLEY WARNS OF BRAZIL MARKET SELLOFF Morgan Stanley forecasts a 20%–30% drop in Brazilian equities following Lula's election victory. The bank sees USD/BRL reaching 5.60, potentially 6.00 if fiscal concerns worsen, alongside 300–400 bps of pressure on interbank rates. The key takeaway: Rising fiscal risks threaten Brazil's currency, bonds and equities. Related tickers: $EWZ, $PBR, $VALE

The craziest reveal in You Can See Everything is actually the fact that she never sold secondary

I don’t think rev revisions will peak unless/until CapEx growth revisions peak. Once revs slow, a 10+ yr period of rising FCF margins begins. Or so is my hope. Better said, if CapEx growth < rev growth when rev revisions peak, I think they perform well. Perfect world for semis is CapEx % OCF just slowly declines to normalized levels (say ~40-50% w/ 40-60% OCF mgns, i.e., ~25-30% Hyper terminal FCF mgns [terminal ROIC / FCF mgn varies by Hyper: MSFT has high OCF mgns / low asset turnover, AMZN has higher asset to / lower ocf mgns, naturally … terminal CapEx % revs function of asset to]) while Hyper OCF grows 20-30% for a long time + neos/on-prem also grows fast. Possible. Feels like threading a needle. I own a lot of semis + Hypers.

Dario Amodei was so worried about Y2K that his high school teacher still remembers it decades later. He’s been a doomer for much longer than I thought!

Is $UBER management willfully retarded? Instacart?? Are you fucking kidding me

And here we go, Round 3 From Nomura: we’ve seen resumption of “Notable Call Buying” in some of the usual suspect “Core AI” names over the course of the past week which should be monitored CRWV: $69M premium, delta of 3M shares or $170M - buyer of 21k Apr 80 Calls for $7.15 (10/22) - buyer of 25k Mar 85 Calls for $8.07 (10/21) - buyer of 20k Apr 90 Calls for $8.07 (10/15) - buyer of 20k Mar 80 Calls for $8.85 (10/14) NBIS: $25.7M premium, delta of 500k shares or $80M - buyer of 7.5k Mar 230 Calls for $16.07 (10/22) - buyer of 7.5k Apr 260 Calls for $18.15 (10/21) DRAM: $20M premium, delta of 1.9M shares or $85M - buyer of 27k Apr 60 Calls for $3.40 (10/22) - buyer of 30k Mar 60 Calls for $3.65 (10/21)

This paragraph from $META's inside 10-q filling may mark the official announcement that the funding environment for the AI buildout has turned the corner. (HT: Barclays' Alexander Altmann)