Snr Assoc Prof in Warfare + Counter-Terrorism @PoLIS_Bath @UKRI_News Future Leaders Fellow. Fmr @natopa +@RIrishRegiment ☘️
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Joined March 2011
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This thread seems to have resonated with a few people. If you're interested I wrote this book about our platoon's experiences in Sangin... amazon.co.uk/Callsign-Hades-… @simonschusterUK
Time to diversify …
This week RAF Typhoons have flown alongside French Rafale jets - the first time the UK has taken part in a French nuclear air exercise. It's a landmark step in UK-France defence co-operation, and a clear signal that we stand shoulder to shoulder with our allies on European security and credible deterrence.
People really need to pay attention to the advice ... the days of just in time logistics are long gone...
🚨This is well worth downloading - it is a v useful guide about the kind of supplies you and your household might need to be self sufficient for 72 hours in the event of an emergency - from a flood or a power cut to war:
beready.campaign.gov.uk/wp-c…
The 🇮🇪 Triple lock debate is moot : you can’t be neutral if you can’t defend yourself. Totally in favour of policy of military neutrality btw, don’t think this matters too much.
Researching the OBL Tora Bora shambles and this - in Steve Coll’s Directorate S’ - is mind blowing tbh
Patrick Bury retweeted
Breaking: Elon Musk ordered the Starlink slowdown that blindsided Ukraine on.wsj.com/4sgcpBv
Before 9/11, CIA repeatedly retained intelligence on Mihdhar and Hazmi even as the FBI was trying to connect them to AQ. The new evidence on the Saudi-linked network around them makes that pattern more consequential... full paper here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
Good points here on the lack of cross party political ownership and direction of UK strategic defence priories
One question that gets asked more and more frequently is why France seems to do comparatively so much better than the UK with its defence forces. There is not one single, simple answer. France does not do better under every aspect, to start with. But the one macroscopic problem I will always come back to is that the UK does NOT do strategic planning of military capability.
The UK NEVER has an agreed, long term vision. The UK by design does NOT give its Parliament a real understanding and control of Defence aims and means.
Every successive government that comes and goes does its own thing; obfuscates its plans at leisure, and leaves the following one to do the same.
Other countries are less prone to shock program cancellations and sudden erasure of entire capabilities. If other Countries, France being just one example, agree on the strategic rationale of one capability, they will indicatively stick to it.
The UK will not. The UK holds absolutely nothing sacred (in terms of actual capability). I often hear cries about "sacred cows", but the UK does NOT have sacred cows. Not in terms of actual military capability.
It has cosmetic obsessions such as the supremacy of the "Foot Regiment" that will bend the entire Army out of shape to hang on to this or that tiny, near-insignificant infantry battalion even at the cost of the Supports for fielding an actual brigade.
It has the Red Arrows and a few other trinkets.
Actual capabilities? No. It will happily gap or delete maritime patrol aircraft and AEW (utterly demented things to do from a strategic point of view). It will happily have its army down to 14 self propelled howitzers in total for years.
It has happily given up IFVs altogether.
It has dismantled the Navy.
None of the UK "strategic" papers are ever worth the time they take to be read.
They are only ever lists of the Dead, the Wounded, the Missing. Whatever makes it into the fancy and funding of the day carries on.
What does not dies. What is in the middle lives on for years as a cat in a box, and no one is sure whether it is alive or dead.
Defence in the UK starts getting less demented only when actual Parliamentary scrutiny of Defence is implemented. Something like the rolling Military Planning Law in France, so both sides of Parliament know what the fuck they are doing and have to vote on plans. So there is some actual continuity in planning and execution. So no side of the House gets to make empty statements without attaching an overt vote to a plan.
UK Defence can never get healthier until the Defence Committee is a toothless body meant to be told lies and to hear about things months to years after they have happened.
Commissions must discuss and approve plans BEFOREHAND, not offer commentary when it is too late.
The entire handling of Defence in the UK is designed from the root up to ENSURE failure.
Just out👇In addition to a new theory of intelligence failure, the paper examines the declassified evidence re Saudi facilitation + asks what does this mean for how we understand the previous pattern of repeated CIA failure to share re Mihdar + Hazmi tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
It is all about CITIZENSHIP folks.
⏰The head of the @BritishArmy has just delivered a massive wake-up call to his troops - and the whole of the UK - about the gathering storm.
Please read or watch ⬇️
General Sir Roly Walker tells his soldiers: "You didn’t know this but our nation is going to need you.
"Very soon the political leaders of this country will start to have a frank conversation with the citizens of this country about just what is going on and where the risk lies.
"They are going to try and explain to our citizens that our citizens have got to consent to sacrifices to prioritise defence and security.
"And then they are going to ask those citizens, to whom we are not necessarily at the front of their mind, that they too need to play a part in the defence and security of this country.
"They need to understand what we do for them.
"They need to consent to allow us to do that, which means sacrifices by them.
"And ultimately we are going to need them to back us, to back you to do the one thing that you do that noody else gets to do and that is to take the fight to the enemy."
Patrick Bury retweeted
Илон Маск все-таки удовлетворил требования и предоставил список акционеров "X Holding Corp", которые помогли миллиардеру купить Твиттер. И как вы думаете, кто же оказался инвесторами платформы X, кроме исламистов и Трамповского лобби? Правильно, Петр Авен и Вадим Мошкович. Теперь абсолютно очевидно, откуда у Маска такая любовь к России и откуда растут ноги у "фильтров" из-за антироссийских публикаций. Напомню, кто такие Авен и Мошкович.
Петр Авен — русский миллиардер, основатель "Альфа-групп", которая является одним из основных кошельков для Путина. Этот человек максимально подконтролен Кремлю, например, в 2018 году он вместе со своим коллегой Фридманом отправился в Вашингтон, чтобы лоббировать от имени российского правительства снятие международных санкций с РФ. Авен — один из самых старых друзей Путина. В целом без вмешательства Петра Путин сидел бы в тюрьме, а не стал президентом. Ведь Авен прикрыл Владимира Путина в 1992 году, когда тот организовал незаконную торговлю экспортными лицензиями. Авен в срочном порядке утвердил его уполномоченным МВЭС с правом внешнеэкономической деятельности, тем самым спасая будущего диктатора от тюрьмы. Также Авен присутствовал на встрече с Путиным 24 февраля 2022 года в честь начала вторжения в Украину. Он не выразил никакого протеста, начала "СВО" и молча поддержал Путина. К слову, он вместе с Фридманом пытается снять с себя санкции, буквально вчера он получил очередной отказ в этом вопросе.
В покупке Твиттера представлен компанией "8VC Opportunities Fund II, L.P.", в которой работает его сын Денис.
Вадим Мошкович — подсанкционный русский аграрный миллиардер, который являлся членом "Совета Федерации Федерального собрания Российской Федерации". Другими словами, он официально входил в самый приближенный круг Путина. Мошкович владеет крупнейшим в России агрохолдингом "Русагро". Естественно, он также присутствовал на встрече с Путиным 24 февраля 2022 года и, как и Авен, не выразил никакого протеста против вторжения России в Украину.
В покупке Твиттера представлен компанией "8VC Opportunities Fund II, L.P.", в которой работает его сын Джек (Евгений).
Также интересной личностью является Аль-Валид ибн Талал Аль Сауд, который как лично, так и через свою компанию Kingdom Holding Company, представлен в списке инвесторов аж три раза. Этот человек продолжает инвестиционный бизнес в России и не публично поддерживает ХАМАС в войне против Израиля. По инвестициям в Россию он регулярно сотрудничает с компаниями Роснефть, Лукойл и Газпром.
Зная все это, как вообще можно вести дискуссии по поводу заангажированности Илона Маска? Все думали, как такое возможно, что акции Твиттера (X) падают, рекламодатели разрывают договора, и никто ничего не делает. Это же прямой ущерб инвесторам. Но все не учли факт того, что инвесторам неважна прибыль, им нужна была платформа, чтобы продвигать свои нарративы, такие как: поддержка Путина и России; лоббирование заморозки войны в Украине; вывод украинской повестки из топа новостей; праведность деятельности ХАМАС и т.д.
Теперь очевидно, что все изменения в Твиттере, которые гробят эту прекрасную платформу, это следствие сотрудничества Илона Маска с такими людьми, как Мошкович и Авен.
#ElonMusk
#RussiaUkraineWar #RussialsATerroristState
36% is massive in real terms. And again ask them if they would fight to defend their families and their communities and you’ll get a way higher number
Half of Britons say there are no circumstances in which they would go to war for their country, a poll has found.
Just 36 per cent said there were circumstances in which they would fight. Read our analysis to understand what these numbers suggest ⬇️
telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
Along with less warning re ballistic launches, sounds like a concerted push to cripple Ukraine abiluty to resit and force them to the table on terms more favourable to Ru
Presidential advisor Serhiy Beskrestnov confirms Elon Musk's SpaceX is deliberately crippling Ukrainian Starlink terminals:
"I can confirm that tonight SpaceX has implemented a speed limit on Starlink terminals while in motion.
The limit currently applies to the StarShield “military package” and is set at 100 mph.
Our defense forces were not given notice of this limit, and this has resulted in the disruption of a number of missions.
It is clear that this action cannot be a coincidence and is related to the current political situation."
Patrick Bury retweeted
A Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. Once again, no early warning from our partners. The main target was energy infrastructure, specifically CHPP-4. Unfortunately, it was hit. A residential building was also damaged, and rescuers are currently putting out a fire there. Our systems detected these missiles only when they were already virtually on approach to Kyiv. CHPP-4 is one of Kyiv’s key energy facilities.
According to our intelligence, the Russians are preparing further ballistic missile launches. The facts show that the Russians do not consider themselves bound by what the President of the United States said. Ukraine supported an energy ceasefire. Russia is targeting yet another power plant and the lives of our people.
And this is absolutely unjust: when they are destroying our energy infrastructure, and Ukraine is not even receiving early warnings about ballistic missile launches. It is important that the world does not stay silent about this. And it is important that the United States really see what is happening and who is responsible for this war continuing.
Please stay safe tonight and tomorrow. We are working to replenish our air defenses with anti-ballistic missiles.
Patrick Bury retweeted
Beyond adding a new theory for understanding complex intelligence failures, the paper looks at the recently declassified evidence re Saudi facilitation and asks what does this mean for how we understand the previous pattern of repeated CIA failure to share of Mihdar and Hazmi 2/2
I really hope @GCHQ are doing a massive collect on the difference between Ru bots on and off
Patrick Bury retweeted
Here's the verdict of UK intelligence community on the RAF Fairford incident: 'highly likely' coordinated by the IRGC, and mention of 'criminal networks' suggests a gig economy model of hiring low level operatives to carry out some aspect of the intended plot
Hot off the press with @IntelNatSecJnl + free to read : “9/11 as a catastrophic systems failure: reassessing the unclassified evidence” … 1/2 tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…