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PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ PGA Championship
1️⃣ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2️⃣ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3️⃣ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4️⃣ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5️⃣ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7️⃣ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8️⃣ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
🔟 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)
Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.
3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
Pat retweeted
Cardinals rookie running back Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain, per sources. It makes it unlikely that Love plays again this preseason, with the team hoping he can return for the Sept. 13 regular-season opener vs the Chargers.
Ownership Projections Recap
⛳️ PGA Championship
My Top 10 vs Actual
🟢 Rahm: 13% (1) → 14% (1)
🔴 McIlroy: 10% (2) → 4% (7)
🟢 Scheffler: 10% (3) → 10% (4)
🟢 Young: 9% (4) → 12% (2)
🟢 DeChambeau: 7% (5) → 11% (3)
🟡 Koepka: 6% (6) → 2% (12)
🟢 Fowler: 4% (7) → 3% (10)
🟢 Schauffele: 4% (8) → 3% (11)
🟡 Aberg: 4% (9) → 8% (5)
🟢 Fitzpatrick: 4% (10) → 4% (8)
Also in Actual Top 10
🟡 Hatton: <2% (20+) → 4% (6)
🟢 Fleetwood: 2% (14) → 4% (9)
Hit Rates
🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
🟩 Top 10: 8/10 (80%)
🟩 Top 20: 17/20 (85%)
📊 Spearman ρ: 0.82 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ PGA Championship
1️⃣ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2️⃣ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3️⃣ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4️⃣ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5️⃣ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7️⃣ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8️⃣ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
🔟 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)
Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.
3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ PGA Championship
Since there is only 1 PGA event in the alst 10 years at Aronimink (2018), I bumped up the SG filters for PGA Champiosnhip cumualtive history as well as Majors history instead.
Haven't fully decided on my 3rd, but I do like taking both Ludvig Aberg and Patrick Cantlay here.
Probably not worth burning Scottie. I might take a shot on Mi Woo Lee, Nicolai Hojgaard or say fuck it and just take Bryson 🤮
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ PGA Championship
1️⃣ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2️⃣ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3️⃣ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4️⃣ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5️⃣ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7️⃣ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8️⃣ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
🔟 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)
Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.
3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
Rolling with 2 Xander & 1 Hovland
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Truist Championship
Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on.
I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays.
JT as well, has player well at this course.
Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Truist Championship
Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on.
I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays.
JT as well, has player well at this course.
Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Truist Championship
1️⃣ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used)
2️⃣ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used)
3️⃣ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used)
4️⃣ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used)
5️⃣ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used)
7️⃣ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used)
8️⃣ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used)
9️⃣ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
🔟 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used)
2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used)
1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used)
1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used)
1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used)
0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Truist Championship
1️⃣ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used)
2️⃣ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used)
3️⃣ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used)
4️⃣ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used)
5️⃣ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used)
6️⃣ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used)
7️⃣ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used)
8️⃣ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used)
9️⃣ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
🔟 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used)
2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used)
1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used)
1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used)
1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used)
0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
Cadillac Championship OAD Recap
Pat's Pick 1 — Scottie Scheffler ($2.16M - 2nd)
Pat's Pick 2 — Russell Henley ($48K - 52nd)
Pat's Pick 3 — Collin Morikawa ($42K - 63rd)
Shoulda just rode the top 2 model picks...
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Cadillac Championship
Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016.
Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie.
Pat's Picks (3 entries)
🎯 Scottie Scheffler
🎯 Collin Morikawa
🎯 Russell Henley
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Cadillac Championship
Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016.
Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie.
Pat's Picks (3 entries)
🎯 Scottie Scheffler
🎯 Collin Morikawa
🎯 Russell Henley
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Cadillac Championship
1️⃣ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used)
2️⃣ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
3️⃣ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used)
4️⃣ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
5️⃣ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used)
6️⃣ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used)
8️⃣ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
🔟 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
3.3% Justin Rose (15% used)
3.2% Adam Scott
3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used)
3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
2.2% Harris English (7% used)
1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used)
1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.4% Akshay Bhatia
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Cadillac Championship
1️⃣ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used)
2️⃣ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
3️⃣ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used)
4️⃣ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
5️⃣ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used)
6️⃣ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used)
8️⃣ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used)
9️⃣ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
🔟 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
3.3% Justin Rose (15% used)
3.2% Adam Scott
3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used)
3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
2.2% Harris English (7% used)
1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used)
1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.4% Akshay Bhatia
Ownership Projections Recap
⛳️ RBC Heritage
My Top 10 vs Actual
🟢 Fitzpatrick: 10% (1) → 10% (3)
🟢 Henley: 10% (2) → 11% (1)
🟢 Schauffele: 10% (3) → 7% (5)
🟢 Scheffler: 8% (4) → 10% (4)
🟡 Young: 8% (5) → 3% (9)
🟢 Spieth: 7% (6) → 7% (6)
🟡 Cantlay: 7% (7) → 11% (2)
🟢 Fleetwood: 4% (8) → 4% (7)
🟢 Morikawa: 3% (9) → 2% (18)
🟢 Aberg: 3% (10) → 3% (8)
Also in Actual Top 10
🟢 Bridgeman: 1% (19) → 3% (10)
Hit Rates
🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
🟩 Top 10: 9/10 (90%)
🟩 Top 20: 19/20 (95%)
📊 Spearman ρ: 0.72 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ RBC Heritage
1️⃣ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2️⃣ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3️⃣ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4️⃣ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5️⃣ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6️⃣ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7️⃣ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8️⃣ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9️⃣ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
🔟 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)
3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ RBC Heritage
Important to note that Collin is still battling his back injury. But he seemed to get through the mental block from round 1 at the Masters finishing with 3 great rounds.
I will be taking a shot on him as I need to pick up ground on the field.
Similar profile to Rory with injury concerns last week, he will be lower owned and it's a great opportunity to use a top player in a high leverage spot.
With a $20 Million dollar purse I want to target lower owned studs in this one.
Pat's Picks (3 entries)
🎯 Collin Morikawa
🎯 Ludvig Aberg
🎯 Tommy Fleetwood
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ RBC Heritage
1️⃣ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2️⃣ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3️⃣ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4️⃣ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5️⃣ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6️⃣ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7️⃣ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8️⃣ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9️⃣ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
🔟 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)
3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ RBC Heritage
1️⃣ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2️⃣ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3️⃣ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4️⃣ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5️⃣ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6️⃣ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7️⃣ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8️⃣ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9️⃣ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
🔟 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)
3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
Masters Tournament OAD Recap
Pat's Pick 1 — Scottie Scheffler ($2.43M - 2nd)
Pat's Pick 2 — Xander Schauffele ($630K - T10)
Pat's Pick 3 — Matt Fitzpatrick ($315K - 20th)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ The Masters (4/9/26)
2 tweaks for this week that I am testing. If I get them working trustworthy enough I will update.
🧊 Clutch Factor (NEW) — How each player's weekend performance compares to their own baseline, weighted toward major championship Saturdays/Sundays and top-10 contention rounds.
🦅 Par 5 Scoring (NEW) — Augusta's four reachable par 5s separate contenders from the field. This metric is a blend of 2026 Par 5 scoring with Masters Par 5 history.
The more I think about it, I feel like Scottie might be 10%+ owned here. I really want to pick him, and since I have 3 entries I think I am going to. But the other two picks both better value imo.
Pat's Picks
🎯 Xander Schauffele
🎯 Matt Fitzpatrick
🎯 Scottie Scheffler
Ownership Projections Recap
⛳️ Masters Tournament
My Top 20 vs Actual
🟢 Rahm: 19% (1) → 22% (1)
🟢 DeChambeau: 11% (2) → 13% (3)
🟡 Schauffele: 9% (3) → 14% (2)
🟢 Scheffler: 9% (4) → 7% (6)
🟢 Young: 7% (5) → 6% (7)
🟢 Fitzpatrick: 6% (6) → 3% (8)
🟢 Fleetwood: 6% (7) → 3% (9)
🟡 Aberg: 6% (8) → 9% (5)
🟢 McIlroy: 5% (9) → 3% (10)
🔴 Reed: 4% (10) → 9% (4)
Hit Rates
🟨 Top 5: 3/5 (60%)
🟩 Top 10: 10/10 (100%)
🟩 Top 20: 17/20 (85%)
📊 Spearman ρ: 0.89 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Masters Tournament
1️⃣ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used)
2️⃣ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used)
3️⃣ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used)
4️⃣ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used)
5️⃣ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used)
6️⃣ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used)
8️⃣ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used)
9️⃣ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used)
🔟 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used)
Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD.
I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries.
I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters.
2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used)
1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used)
0.7% Justin Rose (14% used)
0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used)
0.5% Russell Henley (47% used)
0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used)
0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used)
0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used)
0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ The Masters (4/9/26)
2 tweaks for this week that I am testing. If I get them working trustworthy enough I will update.
🧊 Clutch Factor (NEW) — How each player's weekend performance compares to their own baseline, weighted toward major championship Saturdays/Sundays and top-10 contention rounds.
🦅 Par 5 Scoring (NEW) — Augusta's four reachable par 5s separate contenders from the field. This metric is a blend of 2026 Par 5 scoring with Masters Par 5 history.
The more I think about it, I feel like Scottie might be 10%+ owned here. I really want to pick him, and since I have 3 entries I think I am going to. But the other two picks both better value imo.
Pat's Picks
🎯 Xander Schauffele
🎯 Matt Fitzpatrick
🎯 Scottie Scheffler
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Masters Tournament
1️⃣ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used)
2️⃣ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used)
3️⃣ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used)
4️⃣ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used)
5️⃣ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used)
6️⃣ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used)
8️⃣ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used)
9️⃣ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used)
🔟 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used)
Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD.
I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries.
I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters.
2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used)
1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used)
0.7% Justin Rose (14% used)
0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used)
0.5% Russell Henley (47% used)
0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used)
0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used)
0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used)
0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
Valero Texas Open OAD Recap
Pat's Pick 1 — Ryo Hisatsune ($296K - T8)
Pat's Pick 2 — S. Yellamaraju ($159K - T14)
Pat's Pick 3 — Hideki Matsuyama ($99K - T21)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Valero Texas Open
I made a slight tweak this week, as there are so many players in the field with mostly DNP experience at TPC San Antonio.
Instead of counting course form the full weight, I am now power scaling its contribution based on number of appearances.
Best example is Ryo Hisatsune. Only ever played here once, made the cut, but had an awful final round which killed his SG Total. We want to weight this much smaller than say Matsuyama who has played in 4/5.
Pat's Picks
🎯 Hideki Matsuyama
🎯 Ryo Hisatune
🎯 Sudarshan Yellamar
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
⛳️ Masters Tournament
1️⃣ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used)
2️⃣ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used)
3️⃣ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used)
4️⃣ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used)
5️⃣ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used)
6️⃣ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used)
7️⃣ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used)
8️⃣ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used)
9️⃣ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used)
🔟 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used)
Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD.
I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries.
I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters.
2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used)
1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used)
0.7% Justin Rose (14% used)
0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used)
0.5% Russell Henley (47% used)
0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used)
0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used)
0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used)
0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
Ownership Projections Recap
⛳️ Valero Texas Open
My Top 10 vs Actual
🟢 Spieth: 16% (1) → 14% (2)
🔴 Aberg: 14% (2) → 3% (14)
🟢 Straka: 11% (3) → 15% (1)
🟢 MacIntyre: 7% (4) → 8% (3)
🟢 Henley: 6% (5) → 7% (4)
🟢 Fowler: 5% (6) → 4% (9)
🟢 Thorbjornsen: 4% (7) → 4% (10)
🟡 McNealy: 4% (8) → 6% (5)
🟢 Fleetwood: 3% (9) → 3% (15)
🟢 Matsuyama: 3% (10) → 2% (16)
Also in Actual Top 10
🟢 Hisatsune: 3% (12) → 4% (6)
🟡 Kim: 1% (17) → 4% (7)
🟡 McCarthy: 2% (16) → 4% (8)
Hit Rates
🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
🟨 Top 10: 7/10 (70%)
🟩 Top 20: 18/20 (90%)
📊 Spearman ρ: 0.57 (rank accuracy)
Just a massive miss on Aberg, but everything else checks out. Folks saw what he did at the Players and really must be saving to deploy at the Masters next week.
Missed the Morikawa WD 👇 Updated numbers
1️⃣ 16.5% Jordan Spieth (7% used)
2️⃣ 14.2% Ludvig Aberg (22% used)
3️⃣ 10.6% Sepp Straka (9% used)
4️⃣ 7.4% Robert MacIntyre (7% used)
5️⃣ 6.0% Russell Henley (40% used)
6️⃣ 4.8% Rickie Fowler (8% used)
7️⃣ 3.8% Michael Thorbjornsen (13% used)
8️⃣ 3.6% Maverick McNealy (31% used)
9️⃣ 3.4% Tommy Fleetwood (30% used)
🔟 3.3% Hideki Matsuyama (40% used)
3.2% Keith Mitchell
2.8% Ryo Hisatsune (10% used)
2.4% Alex Noren
1.8% Sudarshan Yellamaraju
1.6% Daniel Berger (7% used)
1.5% Denny McCarthy
1.2% Si Woo Kim (56% used)
1.0% J.J. Spaun (13% used)
0.5% Thorbjorn Olesen
0.5% Marco Penge
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
⛳️ Valero Texas Open
I made a slight tweak this week, as there are so many players in the field with mostly DNP experience at TPC San Antonio.
Instead of counting course form the full weight, I am now power scaling its contribution based on number of appearances.
Best example is Ryo Hisatsune. Only ever played here once, made the cut, but had an awful final round which killed his SG Total. We want to weight this much smaller than say Matsuyama who has played in 4/5.
Pat's Picks
🎯 Hideki Matsuyama
🎯 Ryo Hisatune
🎯 Sudarshan Yellamar
Missed the Morikawa WD 👇 Updated numbers
1️⃣ 16.5% Jordan Spieth (7% used)
2️⃣ 14.2% Ludvig Aberg (22% used)
3️⃣ 10.6% Sepp Straka (9% used)
4️⃣ 7.4% Robert MacIntyre (7% used)
5️⃣ 6.0% Russell Henley (40% used)
6️⃣ 4.8% Rickie Fowler (8% used)
7️⃣ 3.8% Michael Thorbjornsen (13% used)
8️⃣ 3.6% Maverick McNealy (31% used)
9️⃣ 3.4% Tommy Fleetwood (30% used)
🔟 3.3% Hideki Matsuyama (40% used)
3.2% Keith Mitchell
2.8% Ryo Hisatsune (10% used)
2.4% Alex Noren
1.8% Sudarshan Yellamaraju
1.6% Daniel Berger (7% used)
1.5% Denny McCarthy
1.2% Si Woo Kim (56% used)
1.0% J.J. Spaun (13% used)
0.5% Thorbjorn Olesen
0.5% Marco Penge