Perma Bull Investing

"Hashrate always precedes price..." I always find this an interesting divisive phrase in the crypto community. Some agree, some don't, but when looking at empirical data, the phrase is actually correct... In MOST PoW coins, (ones with non scammy tokenomics at least), you see a dramatic increase in hashrate and price within a month or two begins to explode and 'catch up'. But why? And why does $BTC normally peak in the November/December 18 months AFTER the halving? In no particular order: 1.) Mining OPEX offsetting. Many miners treat this like a business. They're not sat in a bedroom doing this, they've filled warehouses full of rigs. Thus, view it in the lens of Revenue - Cogs = GP - OPEX = EBITDA. So it's common for miners to sell a certain amount of coins on a daily/weekly basis just to cover minimum OPEX, then sit on the rest for future profits when price increases. So even the most ardent BTC maxi-Miner will sell on a daily or weekly basis to cover base costs. Even in a bear market. In fact, this is one of the reasons BTC has such wild swings in bull and bear markets. In a bear market, miners actually exacerbate it as they will have to sell more SATS to cover costs and may even oversell as they see prices falling over time. The action/game-theory of miners' 'selling-front-running ' adds a great negative buoyancy to price. HOWEVER, the flip-reverse happens before and during bull markets. Proper miners are crypto pros. They can read a chart and understand crypto fundamentals far better than the average crypto dabbler. So they will sense/see an incoming bull market and limit the amount they sell. The combined global action of miners reducing SAT spending and buckling up for the bull run then has a massive effect on the average daily volume of sell orders. Normal market dynamics then kick in and price explodes! As price rises, Miners can spend LESS SATs in order to cover costs. All of this has a great positive buoyancy to price. Then eventually, miners get itchy feet when price soars way above expectations and normal or greater than normal dumpage occurs. 2.) That's great n all Siam, but what has this got to do with hashrate!? Pretty much everything. This is where we talk about the Hashrate Arms Race. There is a never ending arms race in the mining world. ASIC tech R&D/dev/innovation is simply insane. More hashrate per joule or energy expended is a vertical line upwards. As such, hashrate is and will most likely continue being the world's best and most predictable bull run! (If only we could go long on hashrate!? Lol) *hint* You can! Just HODL the coin during accumulation/end of bear markets! So as hashrate soars, the difficulty rating also increases thus making Miner yield per machine lower over time. Eventually, the difficulty then squeezes out lower tech/old/low hashrate machines. Miners will just switch them off as it's a waste of energy. They'd rather those electric joules go into a better ASIC rather than an inefficient one. So less sats then have to be sold to offset that inefficient machine. This has a slight positive buoyancy to price. But at the same time, as it squeezes out older machines, it does have a negative effect. It means Hashrate just consolidates more to the bigger boys and therefore less decentralisation :( Anyway, so as Hashrate soars in a new coin like $KAS where it's relatively early in the emission schedule, what happens is that miners will daily/weekly dump the bare minimum to maintain operations of the business, but they will sit on as many coins as possible as they know a big spike in price will soon follow the Hashrate explosion. This then massively reduces circulating supply/sell side of the equation and price then eventually balloons. This rocket action also sucks in and attracts all the Jonny-come-lately-fomo-sufferers. Hence why price nearly always ends up spiking way higher than legitimate value. So in a nutshell, that is why price always follows Hashrate rocketing...