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The final tally is in....
I made $14,718 as a part time sports bettor in the month of November.
The best part is, I spend 1-2 hours a day placing bets.
Want to know my process? Here's a thread on exactly how I do it....
A 馃У [馃敄bookmark for later]
I wanted to find out why so many bettors beat the closing line and still lose money over a large sample size.
So I went back through 252,000+ graded player props, 100,000+ bets that beat a sportsbook's closing number, every Novig and ProphetX trade since the summer, and 1,790 of my own prop bets.
Here is what your CLV isn't telling you 馃У馃憞
Adding this Parlay.
$100 -> $618馃挘
Wild ML at +122, crossed with both Polymarket and Kalshi on the Utah side....
If you don't have Courtside yet, be sure to download using my refer a friend code "UPSIDE" for a $100 in free play when spending $10.
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/30lgva
Play #1 - Minnesota Wild Moneyline (+122): taken from the @UpsideTools Game Line Optimizer: upside.tools:
Here's a video on crossed markets: youtu.be/1zy_FVYnii4
Polymarket has Utah at -119 with $857 behind it, and Kalshi is at -121. Put either against Courtside's +122 on the Wild and the two sides add up to 99.4% and 99.8%, a crossed market on both exchanges. Devig Polymarket and Minnesota wins 47.5% of the time, while +122 only needs 45.0%. Whale money is here too, with $5.3k on Minnesota at +111.
Courtside +290馃幆
$100 -> $390馃挘
Whales took Grizzlies/Jazz over 238.5 at -102 to +102, and Courtside pays +103....
If you don't have Courtside yet, be sure to download using my refer a friend code "UPSIDE" for a $100 in free play when spending $10.
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/gffbrq
Play #1 - Grizzlies vs Jazz OVER 238.5 Total Points (+103): taken from the @UpsideTools Whale Watch: upside.tools/whale-watch:
Here's a video on tailing whale money: youtu.be/KrXCHw_7Aew
Every whale bet on this over paid a worse price than Courtside's +103. The bars run from -102 to +102, about $52.7k in total, with $34.7k of it at +102 on one exchange. ProphetX took $3.5k at -100 and Polymarket $2.2k at +100. Whale Watch puts the edge at +2.5%.
PrizePicks 6X馃幆
Cale Makar under 1.5 blocked shots, while DraftKings has the same under at -205.
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/mfxfwo
Play #1 - Cale Makar UNDER 1.5 Blocked Shots: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Sniper: upside.tools/ev-sniper:
Here's a video on building a +EV betting strategy: youtu.be/6k4lkJYaTWk
A 3 pick on PrizePicks pays 6X, which is -122 a leg and a 54.95% hurdle. Every book on the board clears it on Makar under 1.5 blocks. DraftKings is the high read at -205, which devigs to 62.2%, and the other four books all land between 55.5% and 55.8%. Even the lowest number on the board is past the bar.
Courtside LONGSHOT +3018馃幆
$10 -> $311馃挘
33% profit boost on next Saturday's college slate. Illinois/Maryland under 52.5 at -108, while Novig sits at -130....
If you don't have Courtside yet, be sure to download using my refer a friend code "UPSIDE" for a $100 in free play when spending $10.
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/eb7qdf
Play #1 - Illinois vs Maryland UNDER 52.5 Total Points (-108): taken from the @UpsideTools Game Line Optimizer: upside.tools:
Here's a video on college football betting strategy: youtu.be/FrlGLcsEsgg
Kickoff is six days away, and early college lines are where books are softest. Novig already has $4.0k on the under at -130 and Kalshi has it at -126, which devig to 54.0% and 53.3%. Courtside is still dealing -108, a coin flip price that only needs 51.9%. A whale also took the under for $1.5k at -115.
Going to be firing off some live bets here for NFL so stay tuned....
Make sure those notifications are on.
Matt Downs retweeted
My month so far near the end of October using @UpsideTools. I had the most profitable day I鈥檝e ever had yesterday with a lot of volume in the NBA and CFB. All using math and data.
Just dropped this Sleeper discount slip in the FREE section of the @UpsideTools discord server...
Will drop a link to it below if you haven't already joined馃
Courtside LONGSHOT +2139馃幆
$10 -> $223馃挘
used my mystery 75% profit boost on this. Kirk Cousins under 1.5 rushing yards at -117, while ProphetX has the same under at -151....
If you don't have Courtside yet, be sure to download using my refer a friend code "UPSIDE" for a $100 in free play when spending $10.
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/4f6uta
Play #1 - Kirk Cousins UNDER 1.5 Rushing Yards (-117): taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools:
Here's a video on NFL player props: youtu.be/dNbo-cai0-c
A pocket passer's rushing yards is about as niche as NFL props get. Novig and ProphetX both land on 55.9% for Cousins under 1.5 once you devig them, and so does FanDuel. Courtside's -117 only needs 53.9%, and the 75% boost stacks on top. Pinnacle is the low read at 54.1%, still above the bar.
Courtside +460馃幆
$100 -> $560馃挘
Kalshi took $4.5M on the Seahawks ML at -141, and Courtside is dealing -139....
If you don't have Courtside yet, be sure to download using my refer a friend code "UPSIDE" for a $100 in free play when spending $10.
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/ul0zs5
Play #1 - Seattle Seahawks Moneyline (-139): taken from the @UpsideTools Whale Watch: upside.tools/whale-watch:
Here's a video on tracking sharp money: youtu.be/vCvGjzyRFc4
Kalshi has taken $4.5M on the Seahawks moneyline at -141, and ProphetX another $117k at the same number. Both paid two cents more than Courtside's -139. That's the deepest market on the board leaning one way, about $4.9M in total. Whale Watch puts the edge at +1.1%, thin on paper but backed by real size.
People are really just throwing money away....
If you took the over on this blindly, you can't be helped.
Taken from the @UpsideTools Odds Screen: upside.tools
Every sharp book prices Bryce Young's 255.5 like a coin flip. ProphetX is -113 on both sides, and Novig has -111 on the over with only $6 behind it while $500 sits on the under at +100. Devig Novig and the over hits 51.3%. A 6 pick Flex on PrizePicks needs 54.2% a leg, so you'd be paying -119 for a bet the market prices near -105.






















