$ASTS Never thought we’d see this price again but here we are.
My stance has always been to wait for revenue and still is. DCF modeling/reliable predictions will follow.
I’ve had the regret of selling too early before and am not making that mistake again.
Side note- I’d rather AST not PR anything right now. Everything will signal blood in the water no matter how positive.
It’s a WARZONE out there be safe and stay focused.
Cats outa the bag again
$ASTS
🚨 $ASTS is under an $80 Mn DARPA program for space radar 99% completed and STR is prime🚨
This STA has some deep implications.
Join me for a deep dive in the 🐇rabbit 🕳️ hole.
AST extends their ongoing radar testing.
It’s explicitly referenced as STR prime contract FA…0018. (Exhibit 1)
If you followed me closely I have pointed to BlueWalker3 as plausible platform of the Wildcard SDR payload. Part of DARPA Blackjack program. Due to among other things timing of glitches.
They were both bumped 3 times in sync.
But then all traces stopped of that software defined payload that was to do 5G TACSATCOM around the time AST started doing 5G MUOS augmentation a TACSATCOM system…
Guess who was a contractor for DARPA Blackjack? Not the comms part but for radar?
You guessed it STR!
Guess again the taggs used in contract FA…0018.
1/n
$ASTS HAPPY FIRDAY #SPACEMOB
Grateful for the ideas and research all of you share!
….while subjecting yourselves to all the tomato throwers! The mental ROI has to be questionable some days I’m sure.
Have a great weekend!!!
Still tracking the analogue. This is total junk science (chart overlays - I'll be the first to admit), but behind each chart is a summation of market psychology.
What events could cause a resumption of upward momentum?
⚡️Ligado approval, seemingly back as a big event
🩷T-Mobile DA, seemingly inevitable
🚀Launch date announced, launch clarity revealed
🇯🇵 J-LEO DA (potentially with add-ons like MHI launches)
🪖Golden Dome / Large Government contract
Hope springs eternal, but I believe $ASTS is holding good cards.
$ASTS First time in a long time I’ve touched the position. Converted a small amount to LEAPs today…had to take action. $40 is comical
37 days ago, on Sep 8th, the USSF submitted a memo in support of $ASTS for testing on 902–928 MHz for radiolocation…“Important national security objective”…“Space Based Sensing and Targeting”.
This request was approved on Oct 9th.
If we put the AST SpaceMobile story on a pie chart, this would account for a visually small piece of the DD…I’ll let the reader imagine what this part of the story represents in future revenue.
I think the general public is having a hard time defining AST; is it a defense play? Is it a telecom play? Is it a niche phone service play?...and this is where I get excited.
It. Is. All. Of. Those. Things.
Its is a diversified, multi-use platform that will be integrated into critical functions of the economy on a global scale.
$40 should have you extremely excited if you’ve got some deployable capital.
$ASTS Vulcan Centaur and New Glenn coming back on line in roughly the same quarter will blow minds.
Also, some of you are sick f*cks relishing in this chaos adding more. Hehe me too
Welp that’s it folks. $ASTS in the trenches I’m destined to be permapoor.
After some weighty deliberation, I’ve decided to pivot my account for my 50 bot followers.
First order of business is a pivot survey:
1.) Middle aged workout guy.
2.) Put “Capital” after something and replace “I” with “we” on every post while submitting deep dives on random names generated from ChatGPT. Please see attached for branding.
All the M&A talk…everyone is expecting a huge buyout…I don’t think that’s the case.
I think $ASTS will be acquiring an AI edge compute company…something like Visto360 or another.
It’s the picks and shovels play for the massive amount of data that will be transmitted in space soon.
Falls in line with Abel’s strategy.
$ASTS Welcome to the creep: everything sucks and is delayed, something must be broken, 5-minute news cycles spin you around and disorient you.
Then the light switch turns on and illuminates the thesis buried and lost in the news cycle.
-commercial cell phone
-government IRC/missile detection/radar/comms/PNT
-IoT
- FUTURE APPLICATIONS
X Times a factor of every foreign country that follows suit.
As pan man says,: STAY FOCUSED
Another convoy is on the move.
BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 have left our Texas facility and are on the road to Cape Canaveral.
Next stop: orbit. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The largest commercial communications arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit. A scalable platform to deliver space-based cellular broadband connectivity directly to standard phones, support secure government applications, and deliver a new third layer of connectivity.
In Midland, Texas, production continues to advance through BlueBird 50, with more than 20 spacecraft structures now being integrated as part of our assembly process.
One constellation. Connectivity. Resilience. Security. Built in Texas. 🇺🇸🌎📶📱
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds
$ASTS
I’ve watched the “Corporate September” video several times.
It really comes off as an attempted psyop to say “I swear bro this is all we are, connecting smart phones so you can talk to grandma from Mount Everest”…..”please don’t brand us as a multi-national defense infrastructure play”.
There’s alot of reasoning behind this to be fair. Many US companies have been blacklisted on export controls (China) for certain metals/other materials.
There’s also a persistent cyber security threat that I’m certain AST is already dealing with.
I believe silence from management at the moment is tactical and advised. It all started with BB6. Imagine what they’re seeing now.
$ASTS That’s it I’ve had it. I knew something was up, #spacemob we have been duped. As @SayNoToTrading has discovered, the launch costs, customer acquisition, and subscription service of AST is a repeat of Iridium from the 90s. Selling my 25 shares tom at open I’m out bros.
Those all-in on $ASTS should definitely not read chapters 7 and 8 of ‘Eccentric Orbits: The Iridium Story’ if they want to sleep well at night.
If you’re holding $ASTS and haven’t read the latest earnings call transcript, do your self a favor and read it.
It’s not an exaggeration to say we’re going to bring in multiple billions sooner than a lot of people think.
It’s simply a function of launch. After that, it’s a light switch…just “turned on”.
And for the doubters: use your imagination. ASTs sat bus alone is the largest most powerful machine in LEO.
What applications can you imagine are restricted by power output and size? Well, they aren’t anymore.
$ASTS 7.2m shares traded today. It will probably stay like this forever and never go up again. Selling my 25 shares to JaneStreet tom I’m out bros.
$ASTS This is what’s lost on most people. AST will just make your phone better without you knowing it…no battery drain, no dropped service for network handoff, no strict line of sight…..and we are addressing both no-service and 1-bar areas (essentially same thing).
MNOs almost certainly maintain proprietary data such as how many times a phone is 1-bar or out of connection before customer switches carriers. Incremental enhancement via AST will contribute enormous economics.
1 billion paid to AST will save multiples of that for MNOs: tower build out/maintenance, customer retention/acquisition, higher switching costs for customers, etc…
@OmniAeronautica is spot on here. This is not the D2D we’ve seen over the last years.
And when we talk about TAM, we need to be honest with the scope: it’s a lot more than cell phones.
CORRECTION TO DEUTSCHE BANK’S $ASTS MODEL: THE TRUE BULL CASE
Shay, this is what happens when the thesis is calibrated to reassure bears.
Deutsche Bank models the floor, labels it “bullish,” and you amplify that label without challenging either its timid assumptions or the enormous markets it effectively excludes.
My thesis is that AST SpaceMobile can become a $1 trillion company by 2030 because it is not merely selling supplemental satellite coverage. It is becoming a global connectivity, resiliency, sensing and compute layer used by carriers, governments, emergency services, enterprises, vehicles, ships, aircraft and billions of ordinary devices.
The central modeling error is treating adoption as though every customer must deliberately shop for a niche satellite service.
AST can instead be bundled invisibly into ordinary wireless plans. Subscribers receive ubiquitous coverage, carriers increase retention and average revenue per user without building remote towers, governments gain resilient sovereign infrastructure, and enterprises connect assets anywhere. Everybody in the chain gains value.
Here is a numerically coherent trillion-dollar scenario:
• 1 billion paying connections from the 3 billion-plus subscribers represented by AST’s mobile network operator partners, at approximately Deutsche Bank’s own $3 monthly net ARPU: $36 billion annually.
• Primary broadband, day passes, Internet of Things, enterprise, maritime, aviation and emergency connectivity: another $10–15 billion.
• Secure government communications, sovereign constellations, space-based radar, positioning/navigation/timing, SHIELD and Golden Dome opportunities, and AI edge compute: another $15–25 billion.
That produces approximately $60–75 billion in annual revenue and potentially $40–55 billion in EBITDA. At 20–25× EBITDA for a strategically critical platform still compounding rapidly, AST reaches a valuation range of roughly $800 billion to $1.4 trillion.
Now compare that with Deutsche Bank’s supposedly bullish model.
By 2030, it assumes only 65.4 million monthly supplemental-coverage subscribers, barely 2% of AST’s existing partner base. It assumes just 25 million primary-broadband subscribers and compresses the entire government and “other” universe into only $1.34 billion. Total projected revenue: $4.47 billion.
Management has been signaling for well over a year that government work would generate meaningful revenue ahead of scaled commercial service. The company now explicitly identifies secure communications, radar, emergency response, Internet of Things and AI edge compute among its expanding markets.
Those are not footnotes. They are separate, potentially enormous total addressable markets.
Shay, repeating Deutsche Bank’s “bullish” label without examining what its model leaves out is not bullish analysis. It is institutional timidity being repackaged for retail investors as conviction.
False bulls can be more misleading than bears because their underestimates arrive disguised as validation.
Deutsche Bank sees a satellite-connectivity company. The true bull case is a planetary wireless layer and dual-use orbital platform.
The most effective FUD sometimes wears a bull costume.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
$ASTS This post is a core memory for me. It’s stuck with me for some reason.
teapawt.net/catse___apex___/status…
$ASTS No offense to this gentleman but this is where the general sentiment is with AST for casual researchers. Number of satellites and launch is the benchmark. This is why we are early.
$ASTS If a country wants to preserve its sovereignty while data/info can be weaponized in the age of AI, then who would they choose for D2D?
What allows satellites to read and pass information laterally? Regenerative transponders and OISL, both of which AST strategically left out of its non-government commercial satellites.
Let’s not complicate this.