Survivor strategy built on data. Beat your pool, not the market. Now in our 18th season of building Survivor tools, from the maker of @SurvivorGrid
Joined December 2023
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Here is how the players with the most entries left in @splashsports World Championship picked this week
1,019 entries left with $21 million on the line
Vikings come in as a surprise #1 this week, giving Texans picker a solid EV of 1.15 this week
Four of the eleven players left with 10 entries went all in on a team this week: 3 Rams, 1 Colts
Here’s the EV breakdown
Pick percentage rankings were pretty consistent this week across @splashsports four big contests
This is a great point that many overlook. And even those who do think about it may not understand why it matters. Since all teams' pick percentages are adjusted by the same relative amount, what changes?
Expected Value is what can change. Teams that were moderately picked and become chalky will affect EV differently than a low-owned team moving by the same relative amount.
You can see a real-life example of that in tonight's SuperContest Survivor picks. Before Dallas played, the single New England picker had the lowest EV (other than the Cowboys), but with the pool now down to 16 entries, it has become a slightly higher EV than all other picks.
The pctgs guessed and released in Survivor tonight mean nothing at face value. Effective pct is all that matter. This is a new week starting tomorrow. If Dallas pct is 33.3 pct for instance the numbers you see, need to have 33.3 pct added to each teams pct. So if you chose Houston thinking they will be 24 pct that’s actually picking a team into 32 pct own. Or more if Dallas is higher owned.
The 15 alive after Thursday's result knocking out 9 split up their pretty evenly, resulting in similar Live EV for each
