Two Kenosha brothers who paid $1,000 each for a Milwaukee Brewers "Timeless Ticket" more than a decade ago say the team isn't fully honoring the promise that came with it — the chance to sit in the best available seats for a game as big as the World Series. More at the link in o

Fed governor Chris Waller on verbal guidance to shape expectations of the near-term rate path: "There's a role for it when you need it.... I can't think of anything that's more forward guidance than what happened last week."

So far, officials have used a variety to words to signal no hike in October. Williams said there was no "urgency." Jefferson called for "more time" and now Waller says the Fed has "flexibility" to determine the timing of further moves that he acknowledges are necessary nytimes.com/2026/10/08/busin… @nytimes

Kevin Hassett questions why the Fed is raising rates, says it is due to an “unusually partisan Fed” and says the “market is worried, too,” about a Fed that is going to be “hiking unwisely”: “When I'm thinking about what future inflation is, then I look at the last three months of core.... When you annualize it, you know what the number is? 2%.... Right now I think that markets believe in future Fed credibility, but I think the argument that I would make if I were a governor is that if core is 2%, then why are we hiking?” “The other thing about the Fed, and you know how long I've been close friends with Kevin Warsh…, he's managing an unusually partisan Fed. That is a hard thing to do, but it can start with [Michael] Barr and Jay [Powell] not resigning. If you go back to 1913, when chairmen, when their term is up, they leave. The same has been true for vice chairs… So why are they sticking around if not to worry about what the future Fed is going to do?” “Geez, it seems like right now the data are saying we are heading in this forward direction and the Fed goes in the other direction, I'm worried about why they did that. I think the market is worried too because if you look today, then a lot of the people who weren't appointed by President Trump are giving speeches over the last couple of days saying we need a lot more hikes. And if they are going to be in control for two or three years, so if the short-term rate goes to 6% because they are hiking unwisely and then they keep it there for two or three years, the two-year rate, because of arbitrage conditions, it's going to be that. And so I think there is still some work to do to restore Fed independence. And I know that that is something that is high on the priority list for Kevin.” Source: Financial Markets Quality Conference at Georgetown's Psaros Center on 9/23: c-span.org/program/public-af…

Waller extends Warsh's "play the ball, not the Fed" metaphor and repurposes it to defend his particular style of communications. He likened a central bank’s reaction function to a home plate umpire's strike zone, saying batters and pitchers don't need it to be perfect, only roughly known and stable from pitch to pitch: “Both want to play the ball, but they cannot do that until they know the umpire’s strike zone. The strike zone is the umpire’s reaction function. If the ball goes here, it’s a strike; if it goes there, it’s a ball. The players don’t expect the umpire to have a perfect strike zone—they just need a rough idea of its parameters and some guarantee that it won’t change much on every pitch. Perfection is not needed for them to play well.”

Both Bessent and Warsh have worked closely with Druckenmiller. Some of Bessent's recent policy moves (on Treasury debt management and, before that, currency) have raised questions about whether they could put pressure on Warsh, esp around some of the institutional politics.

After roughly two decades of ultralow interest rates, borrowing costs are on the rise, ushering in a period of rapid readjustment for the world's largest economy and global financial system "We got somewhat spoiled," says @TaraSinc, a former Treasury official now at GW.

The next thing the bond market may freak out about (fueled by Fed independence vigilantes) is a Treasury-Fed accord. I touch on this on a piece on Bessent’s buyback last week @TheTerminal blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st… There is a third Fed mandate (“moderate interest rates”), and it is open to interpretation what that means. One of those interpretation is bringing down treasury risk premium. Here is Jeffrey Lacker’s testimony to the House.

Risk management 101—every exposure should have a limit, even when you’re sure nothing could go wrong. After all, the Titanic sank and AAA mortgage bonds went to zero. I worry about the market’s (and the economy’s) unlimited appetite for exposure to the positive AI revenue story.

If Trump had kept quiet and let Powell step down at the conclusion of his term in May, Powell would likely have left and Cook, Jefferson & Barr might have, as well. Now all the Biden-appointed govs have good reason to stay depriving the White House of a board majority it clearly craves.

Kevin Warsh to stick with lean Fed messaging despite market backlash ft.trib.al/somtzTa

"I never like the phrase that the markets are doing the work for us, because I know that we have to do the work ourselves," John Williams of @NewYorkFed tells @michaelsderby @Reuters While he is still optimistic that inflation will retreat in the second half of the year, he says higher rates would be "the right thing to do" if that doesn't materialize reuters.com/business/full-te…