Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Arini, the hedge fund started by ex-Credit Suisse distressed trader Hamza Lemssouguer, launched in 2022 with about $1 billion in AUM
The fund grew to run roughly $22 billion, with their flagship vehicle managing $7.5 billion as of July 2026. About 33% of fund vehicles are in CLOs, and another $4 billion raised for direct lending
The fund's strategy was simple. Make bets on highly distressed businesses to extract premium yield vs. the market.
While most credit managers lean towards being highly diversified due to the asymmetric payouts in debt markets, Arini took a different approach by taking concentrated levered bets on their positions
This worked until it doesn't, and this year has been a rough journey for the fund. Bloomberg recently reported that their flagship fund is -26% YTD through October 2026
Here are the 3 positions where Arini has lost the most dollars.
1. Altice International
Altice International is Patrick Drahi's holding company for telecom operations in Portugal, DR and Israel. It carried roughly €8.9bn of senior secured debt and €675mm of senior notes against €1.5bn of LTM EBITDA.
The two crown jewel assets in the business were Altice Caribbean (DR business) and the Portugal subsidiary. The two combined generated 75% of revenue and 80% of EBITDA for the entire business.
In November 2025, both of these were moved out of the restricted group. Altice Caribbean was designated to be an unrestricted subsidiary, and the company then raised €750 million of third-party capital secured against the unpledged assets
In July 2026, Altice then moved to sell the HOT Mobile Israel business for €356 million, leaving nothing of substance behind for the lenders.
Altice International's secured 2028 and 2029 bonds fell 6-8 points in the mid-60s, and the €675 million of senior notes fell 14 points to 16 cents on the dollar. By October, even the senior secured bonds were trading below 50 cents.
The lender group sent a default notice on 2028 notes, claiming that the €5 billion of intercompany loans and the unrestricted designations extracted substantially all value out of the business, and Altice International never made the change of control offer that would refinance the debt
By August, Arini and Silver Point were fighting other lenders for priority in the capital structure. Negotiating group also includes Diameter, Invesco, King Street, Sona and Elliott Management
2. Aston Martin
Arini owned the distressed car company's 10% senior secured notes due 2029. In July 2026, Aston borrowed £550 million from HPS in the form of a £450 million SONIA + 675 senior term loan and a £100 million delayed draw term loan.
The HPS loan was secured on assets placed in a newly created unrestricted subsidiary, while the existing notes that Arini sat in were secured by a pledge over the operating company's shares.
Aston Martin is currently a cash-flow-negative business with £340 million of cash against £250 million of LFCF burn per year. Shareholders have added £2 billion of equity since 2020, and the company recently sold its F1 team stake and naming rights for £156 million combined.
By October, the secured notes that Arini invested in were trading at 47 cents on the dollar
3. Brightspeed
In 2022, Apollo bought Lumen's legacy copper phone business for $7.5 billion with the plan of building fiber passings.
By 2026, it was clear that the deal assumptions were far too lofty, with actual revenue per home passing sitting at roughly 33% of the original budget
Operating cash flow was -$2.2 billion in 2025, and cash balance at the company fell from $2.4 billion at year-end to $1.2 billion in June 2026
By 2Q26, the company issued a going concern warning. Reportedly, Apollo and PJT attempted to raise an ABS tranche secured by fiber subscription cash flows that would rank ahead of the existing lenders but struggled to find any buyers
Per reporting from the Wall Street Journal, Apollo confirmed that they are not willing to add more capital in a business that likely needs to raise an additional $3 billion to get through 2027
The Financial Times reported that Arini held substantial exposure in the company, but the tranche of debt held isn't public. Regardless, the company's debt has traded down significantly and Arini is feeling the pain of unrealized losses from their position
Based on the latest reporting, there have been rumors that a Chapter 11 filing could come as soon as December of this year.
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
House of cards now falling apart
*OPENAI SLASHES LATEST FUNDING TARGET BY $10B: FT
*OPENAI NOW SEEKING ABOUT $20B AT A $1.25T VALUATION: FT
Translation: Abu Dhabi passed on $30BN.
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
This is the most insane demo I’ve seen. Subvocal YC F26 lets you speak completely silently and reads the minute movements of your face. So you can talk to your AI anytime.
AI + sensors is magic.
What’s crazier is they built this in 4 months. This demo was live yesterday evening at the YC office.
We’ve raised $1.3M from YC & Afore Capital so you never have to type or speak again.
Typing is slow. Talking into your computer is awkward. Subvocal fixes both
Our glasses give you the speed of speech without you making a sound or touching a keyboard.
It tracks your internal speech muscles with non-contact sensing and decodes silent, almost invisible mouthing into text at more than 200 words/min.
Pre-orders are now live at:
subvocal.co/preorder?utm_sou…
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Extraordinario reportaje del WSJ: "Los fabricantes de memoria se vengan de Apple gracias a la inteligencia artificial"
Explican cómo Apple ha perdido buena parte de su enorme poder de negociación frente a los fabricantes de memoria, después de dos décadas imponiéndoles precios excepcionalmente bajos.
¿cómo ha sido? Por la explosión de la demanda de memoria para centros de datos de inteligencia artificial, que ha cambiado radicalmente el equilibrio de fuerzas.
Un dato del reportaje: Apple obtuvo históricamente márgenes brutos superiores al 80% vendiendo ampliaciones de almacenamiento en iPhones y iPads. En algunos casos llegaban al 93%. Una cosa SALVAJE.
La historia es tremenda. Apple tal poder de negociación que exigía a los fabricantes cláusulas de cliente más favorecido, que garantizaban que ninguna otra empresa recibiera precios inferiores. Además, se reservaba el derecho a auditar sus cuentas y operaciones para comprobarlo. ¡les exigía acceso a sus libros contables!
Hay algunas cosas un pelín sucias de hecho: aprovechaba las caídas de precios para rechazar entregas previamente acordadas, dejando a los proveedores con inventarios que tenían que vender más baratos.
Lo dicho si te interesa el mundo de la tecnología en su vertiente industrial, excelente artículo
wsj.com/tech/apple-iphone-me…
El #rugby se ha cruzado en nuestro camino. La mejor herramienta para educar a la saga en valores y hacer amigos
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Fin de ciclo en Serbia. La Lista Estudiantil desplazó a Aleksandar Vučić tras 14 años en el poder al obtener la mayoría absoluta con el 52% de los votos y 140 escaños.
Al ganar la mayoría absoluta (+140 escaños), la Lista Estudiantil tiene el poder de formar el nuevo Gobierno y designar al próximo Primer Ministro , que es el jefe de gobierno que maneja la política diaria del país, sin necesidad de hacer alianzas.
Vučić ya reconoció su derrota. Con este resultado cae uno de los últimos bastiones nacionalistas de los Balcanes.
El movimiento juvenil se originó a raíz de las masivas protestas desatadas tras la tragedia de noviembre de 2024, cuando el colapso del techo de una estación de tren en Novi Sad dejó 16 muertos. La mayoría atribuyó el hecho a la corrupción sistémica y los contratos opacos del gobierno con firmas extranjeras. Con una participación récord cercana al 70%, el voto castigo de la juventud y las clases medias urbanas logró desplazar al oficialismo.
El movimiento triunfante está integrado por académicos, juristas y expertos de la sociedad civil, quienes prometen alinearse con las exigencias de transparencia, libertad de prensa y reformas del Estado de derecho exigidas para la adhesión a la Unión Europea.
Pierde Rusia, que tenía en Vučić un socio clave. Moscú se queda sin su principal aliado geopolítico en la región y sin el puente preferencial con la Unión Económica Euroasiática.
No obstante, no implica necesariamente que Serbia vaya a ceder de inmediato en temas de alta sensibilidad como la imposición de sanciones a Rusia o el reconocimiento formal de la independencia de Kosovo.
Si les interesa saber cómo se inició este movimiento, este es el link del año pasado en donde se cuentan todos los detalles
teapawt.net/nachomdeo/status/18844…
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Sırbistan'da Vucic'i iktidardan devirenler kim? Anlatıyorum...
1) Bu hareketi klasik anlamda solcu, liberal ya da Batı yanlısı bir yapı olarak tanımlamak -şimdilik- yeterli değil. Hareketin temel ortak paydası yolsuzlukla mücadele, devlet kurumlarının yeniden işler hale getirilmesi ve Vucic'in 14 yıllık iktidarının sona erdirilmesiydi. Yani "Önce şu liderlen bir kurtulalım" söyleminin gerçek siyasi başarıya yol açtığı örneklerden birini izliyoruz.
2) Hareket, Kasım 2024’te Novi Sad tren istasyonundaki sundurma çökmesi ve 16 kişinin hayatını kaybetmesinin ardından büyüdü. Öğrenciler, olayın soruşturulması, kamu ihalelerinin şeffaflaştırılması, yolsuzlukla ve organize suçla mücadele, bağımsız kurumların yeniden tesis edilmesi gibi taleplerle bugüne kadar sayısız eylem yaptı ve zaman içerisinde büyüdü. Tren kazası ve sonrasında yaşanan ihmaller/kayırmalar, genel bir Vucic karşıtlığına dönüştü.
3) Adaylar üniversitelerdeki öğrenci genel kurulları aracılığıyla belirlendi. Listeye akademisyenler, doktorlar, hukukçular, ekonomistler, sanatçılar ve sporcular dahil edildi.
4) Hareketin yol haritası ideolojik bir dönüşümden ziyade rejim değişikliği ve kurumsal reform üzerinde duruyor. Ücretsiz okul kitapları ve ilaç fiyatlarının düşürülmesi gibi sosyal vaatler...
Öne çıkan bazı isimler şöyle:
Ilija Srdanović - 250 kişilik Öğrenci Listesi'nin ilk sırasında yer alan kardiyolog ve acil tıp profesörü.
Radomir Šajčić - Öğrenciler adına açıklama da yapan akademisyenlerden biri. Belgrad Üniversitesi profesörü.
Dejan Šoškić - Merkez Bankası eski başkanı, ekonomist. Muhalif pozisyonunu uzun süre 'bağımsız' olarak sürdürse de öğrencilerin listesine katıldı.
Eski basketbolcu Dejan Bodiroga ile oyuncular Tihomir Stanić ve Dragan Jovanović gibi bazı ünlü isimler de listede öne çıkan isimler arasında.
Önemli not: Bu kişiler, hareketin ideolojik veya siyasi önderleri değil. Asıl kararlar, öğrenci kurullarında alınıyor.
➡️ Kime yakınlar | Rusya mı, AB mi?
Hareketin açıkladığı pozisyonlar, hem Rusya'yla ilişkileri sürdürmek hem de Avrupa'yla işbirliğini korumak isteyen bir çizgiye işaret ediyor. Örneğin hareket, Eylül ayında açıkladığı dış politika pozisyonunda Rusya'ya yaptırım uygulanmamasını savundu.
Avrupa Birliği ile işbirliğinin gerekli olduğunu belirtiyorlar; fakat üyeliğin referanduma sunulmasını savunuyorlar. Bu, AB üyeliğine koşulsuz ve hızlı biçimde ilerleyen klasik bir Avrupa yanlısı muhalefet çizgisinden farklı.
Hareket, NATO üyeliği konusunda açık ve ortak bir tutum ilan etmiş değil. Aynı şekilde, Kosova'yı Sırbistan'ın ayrılmaz parçası olarak görüyorlar. Bu da, Kosova'nın bağımsızlığının tanınmasını savunan Avrupa yanlısı muhalefet çevrelerinden ayrıldıkları temel noktalardan biri.
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
135-140 para la Lista de los Estudiantes
105 para el Partido Progresista Serbia.
El resto las minorías.
Vučić reconoce la derrota.
Revolución social e institucional en Serbia. Con toda la legitimidad democrática.
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
💼 El @valenciacf anuncia que Kiat Lim ha alcanzado un acuerdo con Pitchwise Holdings para incorporar nuevos inversores
💰 Pitchwise Holdings adquirirá una participación del 42% del accionariado VCF mediante la compra de acciones a Meriton Holdings
💶 Pitchwise Holdings aportará 100 millones de euros de nuevo capital, disponibles para invertir
📝 La operación estima un valor de empresa de 1.250 millones de euros, incluyendo equipo masculino y femenino, el actual Mestalla y proyecto nuevo estadio
🇸🇬 Meriton Holdings continuará como accionista mayoritario y Kiat Lim como presidente
👔 Ann Rodríguez y Corey Woolfolk lideran Pitchwise Holdings y se incorporan a la estructura accionarial
🗣️ Kat Lim: “Juntos construiremos un club moderno cuyos equipos masculino y femenino compran de forma constante en Europa”
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Alemania acaba de anunciar su plan de actualización industrial: compromisos de inversión por más de 225.000 millones de euros en centros de datos y se propone cuadruplicar su capacidad de computación para IA antes de 2030.
El Gobierno dice que quiere aprovechar la posición de Alemania en ingeniería, fabricación de automóviles, maquinaria industrial y robótica para meter IA en las propias fábricas.
Merz ha defendido acelerar autorizaciones administrativas, reducir cargas burocráticas y avanzar hacia un régimen societario europeo más armonizado (un poco a la contra de España que estamos ahora con medidas de máximos para los centros de datos).
Ojo porque son compromisos todavía y es de capital y empresas en mayoría de casos no alemanas: Amazon por ejemplo invertirá 16000 millones en datacenters en Alemania.
Nvidia (que va a facturar mucho, Jensen estaba hoy en Berlín para la presentación) anuncia inversiones en cuatro empresas tecnológicas alemanas.
deutschland.de/en/news/merz-…
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Mucha chicha en el borrador de salida a bolsa de Anthropic que publica WSJ:
> los mensajes se irán a los 80.700 millones de pérdidas en seis meses de este año, pero es un espejismo porque 72.000 millones corresponden a ajustes contables de instrumentos financieros previos.
> Miraría ingresos: 16.300 millones de dólares en el primer semestre de 2026, casi 15 veces más que un año antes (aunque tercer trimestre parece que se está relantizando).
> Computación: gastó casi 9.000 millones en seis meses 2026 Vs 2025, pero los ingresos crecen mucho más rápido que estos costes. Esta es la clave para la rentabilidad del negocio de Anthropic.
> Compromisos futuros: otro de los titulares porque comunican más de 600.000 millones en infraestructura y computación, que podrían llegar a 750.000 millones con nuevos contratos. Dario no quiere quedarse corto de datacenters otra vez.
Luego los riesgos típicos que suelen decir (seguridad de la IA), otros que venimos diciendo otros (oposición ciudadana a los centros de datos).
La primera lectura de esto: ingresos crecen a un ritmo excepcional, pero con compromisos financieros a largo plazo descomunales.
SCOOP: Anthropic's latest draft S-1 documents show financials results for the first half of the year, gigantic spending plans for the future, and a laundry list of risk factors.
- Anthropic recorded a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of the year, tied to accounting adjustments related to previous financings
- Anthropic is set to spend >$600 billion on compute in the coming years, inclusive of cloud agreements and chip leases.
More in @WSJ:
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
🚨 Google lost power in London this morning and Revolut, a bank with 80 million customers, went down with it.
I've spent the morning reading what Revolut users went through. It's wild.
People stranded at petrol stations, unable to pay for fuel or a taxi to the airport.
One traveller couldn't get out of a train station in Japan.
A 71-year-old woman stood at a supermarket till for an hour. Her kid had to drive 30km to bring her cash.
Card payments, transfers, ATM withdrawals, currency exchange, share trading. All down.
Revolut's statement said "all our customers' money and data are safe."
Safe. You just can't touch it.
Google's explanation so far is a "power event" in one zone of its London cloud region. Its advice to affected customers was to move their workloads to another zone or region "if feasible."
Must be nice. Revolut customers couldn't even move £10.
In July the UK government put Google Cloud, AWS, Microsoft and Oracle under direct Bank of England oversight, because one outage at any of them could shake the entire financial system.
12 days ago the Bank of England ran a drill with the UK's 38 biggest banks and market operators. The scenario they practised was a global cloud outage.
And exactly one year ago today, AWS went down and took Lloyds and Halifax with it.
Same date. Different cloud. Lloyds was having problems again this morning.
Revolut spent five years earning a UK banking licence.
Bitcoin has been running for almost 18 years. It doesn't have a London region.
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Magnífuco análisis histórico y macroeconómico de lo que pasa en Francia. Aunque creo que falta la pata esencial de la inmigración de segunda y tercera generación (argelinos y de las excolonias africanas) para explicar por qué arden así las calles elconfidencial.com/economia/…
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Esta noticia de Microsoft abandonando su principal proyecto de datacenter en Reino Unido es una bomba en el sector por varios motivos:
> muestra como el cuello de botella en IA es la capacidad de la red de distribución eléctrica, no de generación de electricidad. Reino Unido le daba la suficiente para después de 2030 y Microsoft ha dicho que así no se compromete.
> la empresa que iba a crear el datacenter es Nscale, una de esas neoclouds que son el punto más débil en riesgo en la cadena de valor de la IA: clientes muy concentrados (Anthropic, Microsoft), mucha inversión comprometida, deuda...
ft.com/content/35cc5cc6-f9b6…
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Breve recordatorio de que en 2022, Getty Images tenía una valoración de 4800 millones de dólares cuando salía a bolsa.
Es la torre más alta que ha caído por la disrupción de la inteligencia artificial.
Sé que sonará a tópico ya algo manido, pero sólo los paranoicos sobreviven en este juego: si tú no canibalizas o destruyes tus propios productos de éxito, alguien más lo hará por ti.
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Es un drama para los europeos pagar el gas natural a casi 100 €/MWh. No somos conscientes del daño en términos de inflación y competitividad industrial.
Se debería intervenir con urgencia en el mercado alemán.
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
This is a good read by @Bloomberg, breaking down all the components that go into building a theoretical 1-gigawatt AI data centre.
We’ve all seen the headline numbers before, but the required gigadollars are still hard to digest. $30 BILLION is equivalent to X2 new USS John F. Kennedy Aircraft carriers... for just one gigawatt of data centre capacity.
....and the US is expected to add more than 60 gigawatts of data center capacity over the next four years. In copper terms alone, that's >2 million tonnes of copper (at 35,000 tonnes of copper per gigawatt; source: @BMO).
So this AI boom is just a metals boom in disguise. Capital expenditure by @Meta, @Alphabet, @Amazon and @Microsoft this year alone is expected to total $0.75 TRILLION.... increasing by+2.3 times to $1.75 TRILLION in 2027.
These estimates are based on already-outdated metal prices. The bill will keep inflating, as the cost of finding and mining the required copper, nickel, palladium, silver, scandium, gallium, germanium, niobium, and grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), to name a few, keeps rising.
Supply of these metals is ALREADY in deficit, and their supply chains are increasingly balkanizing. So, Bloomberg's numbers are likely to be closer to the floor than the ceiling.
@ivanhoeelectric @IvanhoeMines_ @IvanhoeAtlantic
bloomberg.com/features/2026-…
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Coffee is entering a new era, and the split between winners and losers is getting hard to ignore
Coke wants out of Costa again, per Semafor. Bought for $5.1B in 2018 and pe bids fell short of an ask worth roughly half that. Why?
Cause coffee has changed what it sells three times, lets break it down 👇
1. The place era (1990s–2010s)
Starbucks and Costa sold the "third place": a seat, Wi-Fi, a $5 latte.
Starbucks went from $1M in revenue in 1987 to $9.4B by 2007. Costa doubled its sales in three years.
Strategics paid up. JAB bought Peet's for $974M (2012), Burger King bought Tim Hortons for $11.4B (2014) and Coke bought Costa for $5.1B (2018).
2. The craft era (2010s)
Single origins, pour-overs, minimalist cafés.
Peet's bought Stumptown and Intelligentsia in 2015. Nestlé paid $425M for 68% of Blue Bottle in 2017, valuing it at $700M+. Chobani paid $900M for La Colombe in 2023.
3. The fuel era (now)
Coffee as a way to deliver caffeine: fast, sweet and ordered on an app.
- Luckin: 36,000+ stores and $7B in revenue in its 8th year. Starbucks took 19 years to get there.
- Dutch Bros: Q2 revenue +32.5%, guiding ~$2.1B for the year, 1,225 shops.
- Blank Street: $650M valuation.
- These winners are backed, not bought: TSG put money into Dutch Bros, General Catalyst into Blank Street, and Centurium and Mubadala put $1B into Luckin.
4. Where the old champs are now
- Costa made $26m of operating profit on 1.7B of revenue in 2025. Coke's first attempt to sell it was scrapped earlier this year when bids came in short.
- Nestlé sold Blue Bottle this April for a reported <$400M, (bought for 700m remember)
- Starbucks is growing again (+7.9% US comps), but only by going back to basics.
The question for every strategic: are you paying for this era or the last?
Carlos Hernanz retweeted
Un operador turco llamado Turhan Mildon fue a Venezuela, se asoció con Alex Saab, se casó con la hija de Remigio Ceballos y le dieron las cementeras del Estado y empresas expropiadas
Cuando capturaron a Maduro y a Saab, Delcy le iba a quitar los contratos.
¿Qué hizo el hombre?
Se fue a Nueva York, enamoró a Alina Habba (abogada personal de Trump) y se casó con ella en el Waldorf Astoria
¿Quiénes estaban bailando en la boda? Todd Blanche (Fiscal General de EE. UU.) y Kash Patel (Director del FBI).
Sí, los mismos que salen en televisión dándose golpes de pecho por los derechos humanos
¿Y qué hizo Delcy al enterarse?
Le devolvió los contratos de inmediato
Es decir, el gobierno de Delcy Rodríguez es hoy una conserjería corporativa que reparte contratos a dedo a los allegados de EEUU para que la dejen gobernar.
No hay revolución, no hay soberanía y no hay justicia.
Hay un gobierno chavista pagándole vacunas a la corte de Mar-a-Lagob (Trump y su gente) con los bienes de Venezuela para quedarse en el poder y lo van a lograr.
La operación del 3 de enero nunca tuvo como objetivo entregarle el gobierno a la oposición, fue diseñada desde el escritorio de Rubio específicamente para coronar a Delcy Rodríguez.
Además, al empresario zuliano José Enrique Rincón le robaron sus camaroneras y hoy sigue preso.
¿Quién se quedó con su empresa confiscada y con las cementeras que repartió Alex Saab?
El flamante esposo de Alina Habba, la abogada de Trump que estuvo en el Despacho Oval la semana pasada.
Para colmo, destruyeron la empresa (Grupo Lamar) y hoy apenas exporta el 5 % de los camarones que producía su directiva original.
nytimes.com/2026/10/12/us/po…





























