If you want to play around with the sim yourself, you can find it at avnestico.com/swiss. (5/4)
The sim assumes that the players who stand to benefit from an X-1-2 cut will attempt to force one.
In this case, it assumes Ryan, Cooper, James, and Thomas, all 7-1-0 or better after round 8, will always ID their next two rounds to maximize the odds of a 7-1-2 cut. (3/4)
I've started tracking how my simulator pans out against the actual results of 2027's regionals. Below are the results so far.
Baltimore Juniors might stand out. It had a 76% chance of 7-1-2 cut prior to the tournament, but ended up with a 7-2-1 cut. (1/4)
Good Morning Baltimore!
Today is the first regional championship of the 2027 Pokemon season. My simulator gives the masters division's 3123 players a 67% chance of an X-1-2 cut, for now.
I've also built a small webpage to present my data, check it out!
avnestico.com/swiss/
Replying to @Ian__Robb
I played Festival Lead for a few games last night and ran into the only Dragapult in the world running Deluxe Bomb, which was only revealed after I had discarded my Tool Scrapper for Secret Box fodder. I chose to go out on my own terms when I realized I had no wincons left.
Good Morning Baltimore!
Today is the first regional championship of the 2027 Pokemon season. My simulator gives the masters division's 3123 players a 67% chance of an X-1-2 cut, for now.
I've also built a small webpage to present my data, check it out!
avnestico.com/swiss/
Worlds isn't like other Pokemon tournaments.
The global tie rate across regionals this season was around 15%, so I built that into my simulator. But the tie rate at worlds (797 entrants) was only 11%.
With just this change, the probability of an X-1-2 cut jumps from 47% to 87%!
Replying to @pyukumukuTCG
i would like to present an evolution in the sharpie cube meta
Haven鈥檛 rerun the sim yet but I鈥檓 pretty sure Henry beating Brent and adding an extra player at 28+ points before the final round massively swung the cut probability towards 9-1-2.
The Pokemon World Championship starts today!
Pic 1: with 794 players, Masters division has a 45-50% chance that a record of X-2-1 will not be enough to make top cut
Pic 2
Seniors: 376 players, 15-20% chance
Juniors: 389 players, 20-25% chance
You might not want to ID at 5-2-0!
My hot Rivals 2 take is that floorhugging is a branding problem, not a game design problem
Dan Fornace could end the discourse right now by giving everyone a Zangief Iron Muscle animation on successful floorhug (pic related, red not required) and calling it Tanking or something




















