כבר לא "מר כלכלה" הקדנציה האחרונה של נתניהו התאפיינה בחוסר אכפתיות מובהק לכלכלת ישראל. זה התחיל עוד לפני בחירות 2022 כשהשתמש בעתיד הכלכלי של הילדים החרדים ככלי משחק קואלציוני. וזה נמשך מאז. מערכה בשבעה פרקים:) calcalist.co.il/local_news/a…

Le 22 octobre au Parlement, Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri a répondu aux propos tenus par l'ancien chef du gouvernement Abdelilah Benkirane (PJD) en 2014, lorsqu’il comparait les femmes à des « lustres qui illuminent leur foyer ». « Je ne suis pas un lustre, je suis un cerveau, une conscience, des convictions et un combat », a lancé la cheffe du gouvernement, en défendant notamment la place des femmes dans la société.

LIMOGES UPDATE: Second suspect, male, 66, arrested by RAID elite police in connection with torching/destruction of Limoges town hall early this morning. Thought to be part of same ultra-left circles as first suspect, 34, also arrested by RAID (on Tuesday), identified by images of him on the scene, including protesters' own videos. He is on the "fiché S" security watch list as an ultra-left activist. Previously convicted of hitting a police officer at a 2024 protest. Custody has been extended by 48 hours, to the 96-hour maximum. Any charges could include the attempted murder of police, since 13 municipal police officers were inside the town hall at the time.

🚩 When Polymarket or Kalshi says there's a 70% chance something will happen, should we believe it? Excited to share our new paper, just published in PNAS, in which we examined more than ONE MILLION forecasts from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus, spanning 12 domains and forecasting horizons ranging from hours to years. The main finding is striking: Prediction markets and collective forecasting platforms are remarkably well calibrated. When they assign events a 70% probability, those events really do happen about 70% of the time. And this pattern holds surprisingly well across different platforms, domains, and forecasting horizons. But there's an important twist. When we looked more closely, we discovered systematic biases in some of the domains where forecasting matters most (wars, elections). For decades, psychologists have documented how poorly humans often reason about probability and uncertainty. Our findings offer an encouraging counterpoint: When judgments and information are aggregated, we can achieve a surprisingly accurate understanding of an uncertain future. That doesn't mean we can predict what will happen next with certainty. But it does mean that we can be remarkably good at estimating how uncertain the future really is. This work was a great collaboration. The data for this project was meticulously collected for years by Justin Dickerson, the project was led by Hilla Shinitzky and Maayan Peer, with @mattansb leading the analyses. 📄 Read the paper: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.26… #Forecasting #Polymarket #Kalshi #DecisionScience #PNAS

Le maire de la commune d'Aulnoye-Aymeries a été violemment agressé par des colons extrémistes en Cisjordanie. Nous sommes en lien avec lui. Les autorités israéliennes doivent impérativement arrêter les responsables de ces actes révoltants et les traduire en justice. Elles doivent de toute urgence faire cesser ces violences criminelles et garantir la sécurité des populations civiles, comme elles en ont l'obligation en vertu du droit international.

Big up au journaliste qui a proposé ce titre et est en train de manger du popcorn en regardant tous les twittos qui crient à la faute d’accord se faire balayer par tous ceux qui savent (parfois depuis 12 secondes) qu’on n’accorde pas s’il y a un infinitif derrière.

Better cross-country data and measurement have raised the contribution of inputs—mostly human capital—in accounting for international differences in GDP per worker, from @LagakosDavid and @todd_schoellman nber.org/papers/w35826

✨️🔪"Free will might not precede but in fact be a response to determinism, both conceptually and historically... the concept of free will never supported morality and responsibility in the first place" brill.com/view/journals/jocc…