UChicago Professor of Political Science directs Chicago Project on Security & Threats, author Bombing To Win and writes substack: The Escalation Trap.
Chicago
Joined September 2021
- Tweets1.3K
- Following2.6K
- Followers176K
- Likes10
Pinned Tweet
“Pape’s book presents a critically important and insightful analysis of the dangerous realities of internal divisions that destroy security and governance.”—Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense and United States senator
France’s riots are spreading: tear gas in Brussels, clashes in Rome, soldiers in Milan, an Italian “Movement of October 17"
This is Violent Populism. Here's the book on what drives it and what stops it
Our Own Worst Enemies: thenewpress.org/books/our-ow…
Today at 2pm ET, I’ll show the data on what’s driving violent populism in France, and whether it could happen here. Live: professorrobertpape.substack…
Winter is coming …
Due to escalating Iran war in …
The Gulf
Europe and
Potentially America
Watch why: youtu.be/tH2bGB7VAbw
April 30, 1970: Nixon widens the war into Cambodia
May 4: Kent State
Four days
Three mechanisms turned a war abroad into gunfire at home -- All three are in motion again as Iran War escalation heats up
Could it happen again? LIVE Sunday, 2pm ET: professorrobertpape.substack…
Today’s polls show emerging political bloodbath for Republicans — and midterms only 12 days away!
What will a desperate Trump do in Iran?
Join us to my live briefing on Escalation Trap tonight at 7pm ET. youtu.be/_g9EaBiqcak
Trump blocked Israel’s October 10 strike on Iran
Tehran: “Not a single gram” of uranium leaves
Rubio: a deal is “extremely difficult"
Everyone thinks the danger eased -- They’re missing what Trump’s veto really means
Escalation Trap Live Briefing tonight, 7 ET:
Join the Live Briefing tonight Oct 21 at 7pm ET and bring your questions that I answer live: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
Iran says Hormuz can reopen in six days
Today Russia’s Lavrov lands in Tehran to broker it
Headlines will call it a breakthrough -- It isn’t. The real gap is one Moscow can’t close, and Moscow is making a bet on Trump that should alarm Kyiv
Why: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
What’s driving Trump
On Russia diesel deal?
On MOAB threat to Pickaxe?
On going all in on Bibi?
Three puzzles— one reason
See: youtu.be/a5dGWmpgWV4
France: 550,000 marched. A determined minority torched a 143-year-old town hall and looted in 13+ cities. 1,800+ arrested, per official figures
This is how violent populism starts
America is already a step further, and Nov. 3 is 16 days away professorrobertpape.substack…
The full framework is in my book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism: thenewpress.org/books/our-ow…
Trump on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain: “We’ll knock it out fast.”
The problem: its tunnels sit an estimated 300+ ft under granite. Deeper than any US bomb can reach. And Iran has already buried the entrances.
So what is the MOAB really for?
My answer: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
Houthis hit Riyadh’s airport 20 times this month.
Now 15,000+ Pakistani troops and French air defenses are in Saudi Arabia
Each new army is a new path to wider war. 1914 had 10 such paths. This region now has 36
Chaos is coming — Last Week Today: youtu.be/n6DOoYayQNA
Trump promised: no attack on Iran before the midterms
Then came MOAB strike plans, a third carrier, and talk of hitting Iran before Nov. 3
Everyone says a pre-election war is political suicide. The numbers say the opposite
Why + the signal to watch:
No since the July crisis in World War I
Has the world seen such interlocking preemptive spirals
Watch the Guns of October unfolding in the widening Iran War
youtu.be/Z03rjvrCcoM
Tehran expects to be bombed “in the short term"
The US reportedly has the MOAB in its plans -- Israel is on maximum alert
A country that expects to be hit is tempted to hit first
Is Iran preparing to strike? My analysis: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
Hitler bombed London to break Britain. Britain’s answer: a plan projecting 900,000 German dead
Putin now plans to freeze Kyiv
I’ve studied this strategy for 30 years. What comes back to Moscow, and to your diesel bill: professorrobertpape.substack…
Putin is out of diesel. Russia’s diesel exports fell nearly 80% this year
Yet Trump just traded sanctions relief until 2027 for about half a day of U.S. diesel
Why?
It’s not prices. It’s not peace. It’s a group of voters almost no one is watching professorrobertpape.substack…
Saudi Arabia’s worst week ever: Riyadh’s airport, a refinery, Aramco HQ. All hit in 6 days
The targets are climbing a ladder. One rung is left. The last time it was hit, 5% of the world’s oil vanished in a morning
What’s next, and the odds: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
