Not a lot of people talking about the playbook Unit Labs has set up.
-> What do people need when interest in crypto picks back up?
Bridge their funds to come trade on a perp dex -> @unitxyz TVL climbs (the effect is even stronger with portfolio margin btw)
-> What happens if interest of crypto drops off?
Traders move to stocks for more volatility -> @tradexyz volumes go up.
Basically no matter the market phase, these guys are always winning.
Whether you like it or not, any competitor or builder has managed to create this kind of flywheel.
And all of it benefits to Hyperliquid
🟣TradeXYZ losing momentum?
After a record of nearly $37 billion in weekly volume in early August, volumes on TradeXYZ’s markets fell back to around $13 billion in September. Should this be seen as a genuine loss of interest in the protocol?
In our view, this drop in activity is mainly the result of a deliberate choice made since launch, namely to let volumes grow organically.
@tradexyz has never launched public incentives to attract traders. Without any farming period, virtually no one comes to trade on its HIP-3 markets solely in the hope of one day receiving a reward.
Volumes therefore directly reflect what users want to trade, and how the market behaves.
And since its user base is largely crypto-native, its behavior follows a fairly simple logic:
◻️ When expected volatility is higher in crypto than in TradFi, traders stay on their usual assets and neglect the HIP-3 markets.
◻️ When the opposite is true, and TradFi promises more future volatility, they come to trade on TradeXYZ’s markets.
This is exactly what our infographic has shown since the beginning of the year.
At the end of January, bitcoin:native drops from nearly $97,000 to $65,000, then settles into a range with no real prospect of an upside in the short term.
Traders then go looking for volatility elsewhere, in narratives that have nothing to do with crypto, starting with AI-related stocks, whose performance captured the market’s full attention.
As a result, TradeXYZ’s volumes go from barely $1 billion per week to more than $15 billion.
The same scenario repeats itself in early June. bitcoin:native falls back toward $60,000 and remains stuck there all summer, even hitting its yearly low around $58,000 at the end of June.
While crypto struggles to find a catalyst, the protocol’s volumes climb without interruption up to their early August record (11 consecutive weeks above $20 billion in volume).
In mid-August, the trend reverses. bitcoin:native climbs back above $75,000 and then pushes toward $87,000 at the end of September.
Crypto once again becomes the most volatile arena, and TradeXYZ’s volumes promptly fall back to around $13 billion.
Even though TradeXYZ maintains a volume base well above that of the start of the year, proof that some users stay for the quality of the product, the 24/7 accessibility and the liquidity depth of its markets, traders above all go where future volatility is greatest.
The challenge for TradeXYZ is therefore to remain competitive against protocols that use incentives to boost their adoption and their metrics.
One of its best assets is precisely to offer the best markets, at the right time, by anticipating where volatility will be in the months ahead.
No matter what happens in the next few weeks, what’s going on right now is actually pretty interesting.
I really feel like not pretending to be someone that you’re not is the best move here.
This is the perfect time to put the ego aside and just learn from the situation.
Keep your spot convictions.
Keep some cash.
Observation. Learning. Patience.
if you’re wondering whether it’s still worth playing $PAPER:
just know that 856 wallets hold over 89% of the supply and on their own have grabbed more than 36M of the 42M staking rewards.
i think this can discourage a lot of people from continuing to trade on papertrade just to farm $PAPER and cover their losses with the staking rewards.
that said, imo there’s still some opportunity if you’re smart enough to set up a profitable strategy
@papertrade_xyz is more of a patience game than it looks
🟣 7.3 billion $PAPER have been issued by Papertrade. But how is the supply currently distributed?
Launched 4 days ago on HyperEVM, @papertrade_xyz has recorded more than $1T in volume, with open interest peaking at 10.1B.
On Papertrade, $PAPER can only be obtained by losing a trade or by getting liquidated. Traders currently show a net loss of $46M, and 7.30 billion $PAPER have been minted.
For now, the token’s only utility lies in staking, which allows holders to receive a share of the fees generated by the protocol. To date, more than $38M has already been paid out to stakers.
We therefore wondered how this supply was distributed:
◻️ Nearly half of the wallets (49.7%) hold fewer than 10,000 PAPER, and the 1,000 – 10,000 bracket alone accounts for more than a third of holders (35.1%).
◻️ 856 wallets exceed one million PAPER. At the maximum emission rate of 100 PAPER per dollar lost, that represents at least $10,000 in losses each (not counting staking rewards, which, for the most part, allowed them to cover their losses).
◻️ The largest wallet holds around 252M PAPER, or 3.5% of the current total supply.
◻️ 99.2% of the supply is staked, a figure to be put into perspective since transfers are still disabled and staking is currently the token’s only utility.
It remains to be seen how this distribution will evolve when transfers open, and above all how the platform will continue to generate enough fees to guarantee staking rewards attractive enough to cover traders’ potential losses.
⚠️The metrics that we used are those from 14/10 at 17:30. Please note that these metrics are likely to change significantly over the coming days.
Interest around prediction markets rn is clearly catastrophic.
Less than a year ago everyone was hyped about the potential that they had (me included). But now nobody really cares:
- Nobody cares about @world_xyz. Tbh terrible for Solana who put so many resources into it just to end up with almost zero real traction.
- All of @Polymarket metrics are down only and they’re losing users overall. Huge missed opportunity on their side, way too many execution mistakes
- Kalshi is just actually in turmoil since the recent events with @beniduboss
- HIP-4 is stagnating and concretely failing to take off for now
Their only solution (except @HyperliquidX of course) is now to turn to perps, which are in reality their only way to make money, get recurring revenue and cover their user acquisition costs.
I’d now like to know what justifies valuations this high for Polymarket and @Kalshi lol. Almost $20B just a reminder.
So does that make it a dead meta? Imo the only way for it to work today is to create a real synergy between spot / perps and binary options / risk markets.
Hedging most of your spot position against potential events or certain moments of volatility in the future is the only use case that I see as actually relevant.
Without that stack, there’s almost no point in building a simple prediction market today tbh.
If we have to recap the endless debate around Hyperliquid and a potential Season 3:
80% of all arguments that I’ve seen in favor of a new season are absolutely retarded and just make no sense. Most of them are completely disconnected from the actual situation.
One thing that I don’t get. If most people here don’t think a new distribution is happening, and on your side you’re convinced of the opposite.
Why keep exposing your conviction??
Keep your damn hedge and stop trying to convince people who are fundamentally against this airdrop. You’re just diluting yourselves lol.
Most current holders don’t want to get diluted (and rightfully so). But saying with full confidence that NO, a new hyperliquid:native airdrop will not happen is just incomprehensible.
Factually you don’t know either, and denying that possibility is a reasoning error. Same thing for thinking an airdrop can only be negative for the protocol, that’s a pretty closed view of what an airdrop even is.
Also, apparently you’re all @chameleon_jeff psychologist here, saying “Jeff likes to do this / Jeff has to / Jeff loves.” It’s so ridiculous sometimes tbh, cut that out.
Nobody knows. And I mean literally nobody can be 100% convinced of what’s coming next.
For now, the only winner of this situation is still @HyperliquidX, who with only one sentence in their tokenomics managed to flip CT and wipe @Lighter_xyz /@variational_io out of the conversation.
Anyway, just let yourselves be surprised by the team and everything will be fine.
Hyperliquid














