Islander retweeted
My view is that Brexit was a somewhat costly mistake (and I opposed it at the time as well) but I am unsettled when I speak to "elites" in Britain who are totally fixated on it as the source of our problems, and reversing/undoing it as the solution.
I've had more than one experience over the past few weeks that has given me the impression that many people who run the country or influence those who do believe that Brexit is the silver bullet. I think that's totally wrong – the country's inability to build housing, infrastructure, or cheap energy supply, along with the country's now very high levels of tax and govt spending, are much bigger problems for growth.
If anything, AI may mean being outside the EU ends up being quite a good thing, despite the costs so far. Avoiding the EU's AI and data regulations is valuable, and these will probably only get worse. And Britain now has a greater possibility of getting inside the American "tent" and get preferential access to frontier models that most countries cannot get, if that ends up being important.
Islander retweeted
"Burnham set to revive Help to Buy scheme in bid to boost housebuilding"
Here we go again… 🙄
1⃣ Help to Buy (HTB) is a gimmick that helps only a small number of people onto the housing ladder while driving up house prices for everyone else.
2⃣ HTB is intended to boost housing supply by giving developers greater confidence that homes will sell. However, any benefit is likely to be swamped by rising construction and borrowing costs, planning constraints, and broader economic uncertainty.
3⃣ Independent evaluations of previous HTB schemes found substantial deadweight: half of participants said they could have bought a home without support. The schemes also had little impact on home ownership in areas that were already relatively unaffordable.
4⃣ "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results..."
Islander retweeted
I've said before, Help-To-Buy is one of the most stupid policies a gov can adopt. House prices are falling in real terms anyway and this will just pump them back up and push people into higher debt. Official review saying "very high value for money" is just cynical propaganda.
FT REPORTS HELP TO BUY IS COMING BACK.
This is disastrous news, condemning more hapless FTBs into unnecessary debt so that Labour can try and prop up its growth failures and missed housing targets.
They KNOW this makes housing affordability worse, but keeping votes is more important.
Reported just now in the FT:
"Andy Burnham will revive the controversial “Help to Buy” scheme through which hundreds of thousands of first-time buyers got on to the housing ladder under the previous Conservative government, according to people familiar with the situation.
The UK prime minister has agreed to launch a new equity loan scheme to help first-time buyers, although it will have a different name to the scheme that ran for 10 years from 2013 to 2023.
The people said that Burnham could announce the plan at the Labour Party’s annual conference, which runs from Sunday until Wednesday in Liverpool.
The original Help to Buy scheme consisted of two products, a mortgage guarantee and an equity loan; it is unclear whether Burnham will seek to revive both products.
The move comes as ministers agonise over underwhelming housebuilding volumes that jeopardise the Labour government’s target of building 1.5mn new homes over the five-year parliament.
Some government officials are concerned that the number of new homes being built is so low that the Office for Budget Responsibility could downgrade its predictions, which would impair growth forecasts and the government’s fiscal headroom.
The FT reported this month that ministers, including housing minister Matthew Pennycook, have been pushing to revive Help to Buy, albeit on a more limited and targeted scale than the Tories’ version.
One official said ministers were moving at “breakneck speed” to design the new product.
Downing Street and the housing department declined to comment.
The housing department released an official review this month suggesting that Help to Buy had been “very high value for money” in what some observers interpreted as an attempt to soften public opinion towards the idea of reviving the scheme.
The evaluation concluded that Help to Buy was responsible for one in seven homes built in England over the period it was in place. It propelled more than 300,000 people to buy their first home, the review found.
The scheme had pushed up house prices by “only” 2 percentage points, the review added, although it acknowledged that this had made it harder for some aspiring first-time buyers.
This year, discussions were held between then-housing secretary Steve Reed, housing officials and housebuilding executives about how a new housing equity scheme could work.
Chancellor George Osborne introduced Help to Buy in 2013, offering state-backed equity loans for new-build purchases and a mortgage guarantee scheme for lenders. The scheme lowered the amount that individuals had to put down as a deposit when buying property.
The Home Builders Federation, an industry group, has recently put forward its own proposal for a new equity scheme “taking lessons from previous interventions” to help first-time buyers."
This is clearly just designed to help developers sell houses at high prices by loading more debt onto young people.
It's a repetition of the mistake made by George Osborne with Help to Buy.
Let's be honest.
A lot of young people have stopped believing they'll ever own their own home.
That's what happens when rents are high, house prices are high, and saving for a deposit feels impossible.
My Labour government is stepping in to help.
With Your First Home, first-time buyers will be able to buy a new-build home with a deposit of just 2.5%.
Because hard work and saving should count for something.
And because the dream of owning your own home shouldn't belong only to those with help from the bank of Mum and Dad.
We live in 'interesting times'.
We are rejecting the outdated model of multilateralism that treats the American taxpayer as the world's underwriter for a sprawling architecture of global governance.
President Trump's withdrawal shows that the era of writing blank checks to international bureaucracies is over.
statedept.substack.com/p/end…
Islander retweeted
Around the introduction of GDPR: US investors stopped investing in Europe, but increased their investment in the US. European investors stopped funding startups both in Europe and in the US.
Belated recognition that creating a category called “affordable housing” is counterproductive?
EXC:
Steve Reed and Sadiq Khan tell me why the “crisis” in London housebuilding justifies slashing affordable homes targets
I challenge the Mayor over claims of amount of housebuidling “started”
Produced by @JoeCookJ
This Select Committee evidence from the “Big Six” energy companies gives the impression that we've been making some huge policy mistakes.
youtube.com/live/O--JS5_FC0o
Islander retweeted
In the 1700s and 1800s, English and Irish developers laid out hundreds of garden squares, though there was no planning requirement that they do this, and though they never made any money on them. Why?
Islander retweeted
We begin our analysis with a simple observation - that the decline in UK electricity availability, which started in 2006, coincided with the start of structural weakness in UK productivity growth (2/16) #productivitypuzzle #ukeconomy
Islander retweeted
One of the most striking themes in Keir Starmer’s speech today — his frustration with Whitehall
For weeks I’ve been asking Labour people what they make of their time in government and one sentiment comes up again and again:
“Dominic Cummings was right”
Islander retweeted
Donald Tusk has just called for the suspension of the right to territorial asylum in Poland. Says he will "demand recognition" of this decision with European partners.
Premier @DonaldTusk w #Warszawa:
Jednym z elementów strategii migracyjnej będzie czasowe terytorialne zawieszenie prawa do azylu. Będziemy domagać się uznania tej decyzji w Europie.
Islander retweeted
New GDP per capita PPP data from @WorldBank suggest that, based on the current growth projections from @IMFNews WEO April 2024, Poland's 🇵🇱 PPP income is likely to exceed that of Japan🇯🇵 by 2026. Unbelievable data.worldbank.org/indicator… @Noahpinion
Islander retweeted
Bam!
And that, my friends, is how you deregulate.
No endless consultations, no turgid white papers, no 'stakeholderism', no imperceptibly nuanced changes that in practice means nothing changes.
Just sweep it away.
Build, baby, build!
Islander retweeted
nice expensive paving you've got there... would be a shame if successive utility companies were to dig it up and not bother replacing it 😏 (2009, 2017, 2021)
Islander retweeted
I want to offer a short theory of why this has happened, not because I'm sure I'm right but because I want to test it more broadly. Fundamentally, it's about the structure of the State and how the Conservatives have failed to reform it. /1
Islander retweeted
As Labour looks for new town sites, and how to make HS2 work, might I suggest Calvert, where HS2 and EWR cross? 5km radius population is only 7,000. Land rated poor for farming. Huge transport capacity. You could fit a city the sized of Rennes (250k) here. @s8mb, as discussed!



































