Brutal few months in the market with what I hope will be the low point last week. I’ve been so impressed with the sentiment and positivity in this group having seen other BCTCs descend into chaos, abuse and hysterics in my time.
Whilst there is so much signal in what @asjwebley and @Croesus_BTC have done through August to keep “the feet moving” as Jesse put it on the impromptu spaces, I do feel that the global catalyst to restart the flywheels will come from Metaplanet given they’re the king of this new breed of BCTC running the Strategy playbook.
I’ve been watching their price performance closely and it’s recently been showing incredible strength and their ATM instrument delivered 26M shares or about $125M over Monday / Tuesday 🤯. They’ve then followed that up with an incredibly bullish disclosure around an “international offering” that feels similar to SWCs private placement type instrument (albeit it will run over 3 weeks) whilst their ATM is temporarily halted. This means there will be no selling pressure on the stock at a time where short interest is near 45%!! It also means they clearly have significant global institutional interest in an offering of 185M shares that could raise to 555M!!!! At today’s prices that anywhere between $1.1BN to $3.3BN dollars to be spent on Bitcoin!!!!!
I think this is an incredibly bullish development for SWC as it could restart mNAV expansion and shines a direct light back on the space. I would love to get @Croesus_BTC or @asjwebley reactions to this over the next few days and I bet it’ll be a huge topic at Bitcoin Asia.
Another huge week for @smarterwebuk and, for me, one of the most significant. The Smarter Convert will likely be major for capital raising, let me explain what has got me really excited over a spreadsheet and coffee this AM. Hopefully these interpretations make sense.
@asjwebley & @Croesus_BTC were everywhere this week and dropped some huge value across a number of different forums. One of the key takeaways for me was the idea of up to 30% of BTC / NAV in Smarter Convert. At face value its very exciting because on todays NAV (£202M) that's a potential convert value of £60.6M or 704 BTC of the rough 2348 SWC own (adding in publicly available treasury information ;-)). However, due to the way the ratio should work, from my interpretation, there is more headroom. Given 181(ish) of the 2326 BTC is Convert (8%). As you add the convert BTC you're growing the overall stack. I think that gives potential for another 714(ish) BTC) to reach around 3040 BTC or another £61M of capital raise at todays BTC price. Then you have 895 BTC of 3040 as Convert - 30%
What's REALLY amazing about this product though is how the other capital raising instruments heal that leverage ratio and then allow the absolute amount to run higher.. .WAY HIGHER. Roughly, for every £100M of capital that SWC can raise via ATM, ABB, PP & Subscriptions it allows for a potential extra £30M of Smarter Convert to keep the ratio at 30%. This means the convert has untapped potential as the ATM and other capital instruments keep driving it higher. Andrew also mentioned the potential of the ATM being £300-£500M per year. Well that allows for £100-£150M of convert which is significant. @johnsthor1 is doing some amazing tracking of the ATM and we can expect roughly £8.4M to be announced on Monday which is an amazing amount of capital raised over low volume and a mini bear market period for BCTC companies.
I think once volume returns in September we could see some real violence return to mNav / share price which IMO is currently extremely undervalued. Obviously the higher the mNav goes the more accretive the equity issuance which will give more room to Smarter Convert. Its a beautiful construct that turbo charges the flywheel effect and gives @Croesus_BTC & @asjwebley so many different levers to pull. Genius. Congratulations to the team for an incredible week and so bullish for the next few months.
Great to see the bounce back and stabilisation of SWC this week. I think the close has us broadly at a 7.79x mNAV according to @BitcoinBee21 amazing website. I’d like to argue the market is currently not pricing in the ATM effect. I think it’s a fair assumption to see all 21M shares deployed in the next 3 weeks. At an average price of £3.30 for easy assumptions that’s another £69M or 873 BTC which takes NAV to £169M or BTC to nearly 2000. At this level the current market cap of 782M has us at only a 4.62X mNAV which I think we would all agree is deep value for the fastest horse in this race. Revaluing at the same mNAV of 7.79x with the 21M shares added has us roughly at an equivalent value of £5. Be great to get any thoughts. All maths is rough values based on the close today @ZynxBTC @the_desert_ape @RoaringRagnar
The bus of the future has legroom!! Can you believe it? The WIFI was impressive though.... instagram.com/p/2Wr9kZFcx5/
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Waking up and knowing you are in a Dunn Final is a great feeling. #uptheLOBS @LancingCollege @LancingSport
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What a day to win the Dunn! Good luck to all the @LOBsFC players and supporters. #prideinthebadge. – at South East, England
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Comp! All these @UKTeam_Optimum goodies, @promixxmixer shaker & upgrade pack, @TrainInsaneWear stringer! Rt & Follow
@FrancisDiet what's your favourite one? Quite like to see a video of some 120kg power jumps with DB's!! #beastmode good way to burn fat?
@FrancisDiet Would love to get your thoughts on 'Insanity' as a form of HIIT training? #apologiesitisnotaskFD
@FrancisDiet many thanks. Starting to think there is not too much fat left to go! Would you recommend anything specific?