Trying to beat the bookies / stock market using machine learning and common sense...
Joined September 2013
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Historic Brownlow count last night - Daicos eclipses Cripps' record with 47 votes. Very different count this year... As mentioned by others already on Twitter, the umpires having stats access seems to have dramatically reduced howlers, but made things much more predictable.
For returning models, every single one showed dramatic improvement. Is this good? AFL will probably mark as a success, but personally i liked the unpredictability of prior years. Certainly makes for a better betting event.
In terms of the models... this years' crown for best model goes to:
BG2 aka (@brownlow_genius), who delivered an extremely balanced set of predictions that saw him land top 3 across three of the six metrics and no worse than 8th across any! Thanks again for all the submissions!
2026 Brownlow consensus predictions are here! DM or reply to this is you have a model or count and wanna be included!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Feel like I say it every year, but what a crazy count last night. Not complaining though, that's the beauty of it - you're not trying to predict the best, you're predicting who the umps think is best! It's why is hard, and why there is so much good betting! Long may it continue!
Assessing the various predictions always a bit subjective - there are many metrics you can use and any one on it's own is a bit subjective, so I've gone with six and ranked the models based on their average rank across all six.
The clear #1 by this methodology is @greenlitaccount (see the models sheet), who also won in 2023 and came second by a whisker last year. Big congrats there - he clearly has a very good handle on it. However there were lots of good models, so thanks all for your submissions.
It's that time of year again - Brownlow Eve. Here are the 2025 consensus predictions round by round! If you have a model / or know one that's missing, comment below (still awaiting a couple incl. last years' winners @greenlitaccount and @SgtButane ).
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Will do a post-count tweet during the week announcing "best" submission according to a weighted avg of several metrics (see last years' sheet for details) and discussing anomalies, points of interest, etc.
Thanks to @joel_cashman5, @JMichaelsESPN, @Before_You_Bet, @andrew_whelan for putting their numbers out all year.
Going to do this again! Have you got a Brownlow model? DM and I’ll add it to the sheet which should be out later tonight. Always good to look at the different predictions and then compare again after the count. Last years’ consensus votes were pretty accurate!
2024 consensus model predictions on Brownlow Eve... Still awaiting a couple of submissions (and open to other prior to start of the count tomorrow). Looks to be a two-horse race this year...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
@WheeloRatings @greenlitaccount @MatterOfStats @optibrebs
2024 consensus model predictions on Brownlow Eve... Still awaiting a couple of submissions (and open to other prior to start of the count tomorrow). Looks to be a two-horse race this year...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
@WheeloRatings @greenlitaccount @MatterOfStats @optibrebs
Going to aggregate the various public Brownlow counts / models again this year. If you've got a model or done a count and want to see if you can beat last years' champ @greenlitaccount , DM me. Hoping to get the sheet up by this evening...
I've collated the publicly Brownlow model predictions + some private ones. Will do a write-up tomorrow with the results and discuss the big surprises. If you have a model, hit me up in DMs/comments! Good luck!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
@MatterOfStats @ChewTheStat @WheeloRatings
Brownlow modelling results:
Lots of good submissions (despite wild count) - hopefully the sheet helped you find some good bets! Clear winner (in terms of accuracy): @greenlitaccount got the lowest MAE on both a game and player total basis. Full results: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Also, extremely good result by @joel_cashman5 at Betfair. Most accurate count/fractional count out there and almost most accurate overall!
In terms of betting results, no big upsets in the team markets. In other exotics Neale beat the odds fave Daicos for R10 leader at $21 and held on overall at $13 thanks to some remarkable polling. In game by game, Noah Balta was the longest priced 3v poller at $26 in R2, (cont.)