RED Capital Group

Multihousing Sensitive Econ Calendar 2/25: Dec. FHFA+Case-Shiller 20-city HPI (Consensuses 4.9% +2.8% YoY); 2/26: Jan New Home Sales (C=2.0% M/M SAAR); 2/27: Jan. Durable Goods (C=-0.9%, Ex-Trans=0.3%); 4Q19 GDP Rev. (C=2.1%); 2/28: Jan. Personal Income+Spending (0.3% + 0.3%).

Multihousing Sensitive Econ Calendar 01/07: Nov Factory Orders (Consensus=-0.5%); 01/10: Dec Payroll Employment (C=160m, RCR=145); Dec Unemployment (C=3.5%); Hourly Wage (C=3.1% YoY). RCR models suggest string of above expectations NFP prints may end, bonds likely outperform.

The USCB issued Oct construction data today. After a Sep fade 5+ permits surged in Oct, rising 6% to 505m (SAAR); 15% YoY (NSA). Starts advanced 7% M/M to 362m (SAAR); 11% YoY. In spite of talk that lease-up is slowing builders expressed strong confidence in U.S. space demand.

Commercial Property Executive report that CRE pricing was flat in all major segments during October, but apartments continued to exhibit the greatest total appreciation since 2011. cpexecutive.com/post/pricing…

Adjusting for the GM strike, Oct's NFP gain was ~170m, a solid result for our point in the cycle. Moreover, Aug and Sep data were upwardly revised by 51m and 44m, respectively, evidencing unexpected labor market strength; and wages increased modestly, rising 3.0% YoY. Good stuff!

Multi-housing Sensitive Econ Calendar. 8/20: Jul Existing Home Sales (Consensus=+2.1% M/M); 8/21: Jul Leading Econ Indicators (C=+0.2%); 8/22: Jul New Home Sales (C=+0.3% M/M). Housing metrics at center stage in slow data week. Above consensus LEI could brighten market's mood.

Multi-housing Sensitive Econ Calendar. 7/13: Jul CPI (Consensus=0.2% M/M, 1.7% YoY, Actual=0.3%, 1.8%); 7/15: Jul Retail Sales (C=0.3%), 2Q Productivity (C=1.5%), Jul Indust Prod (C=0.1%); 7/16: Jul Hsg Starts (C=0.6% M/M), Permits (C=4.0% M/M). Retail sales in the limelight.

Multi-housing Econ Calendar. 8/06: June JOLTS (Actual=-0.5% M/M, Consensus=-0.4%); 8/09: July PPI (C=0.2% M/M, 1.7% YoY, Ex-F&E=2.4%). A quiet data week ahead. Market will look for soothing inflation and trade news. Notably, the 10-yr. UST yield is approaching an historic low.

AvalonBay reported 2Q19 results yesterday. Same-store Revenues, OPEX and NOI increased 3.1%, 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively. First Quarter Rev growth was 3.4%. PAC NW (4.8%) and NoCal (3.2%) regions recorded above average rev gains; NE and M-A (2.8%), NY/NJ and SoCal (3.1%) lagged.

Encouraging June construction data were released today. 5+ permits were issued at a 360m unit SAAR pace, -21% from May (-17% YoY NSA). Starts fell -9% M/M (+26% YoY). Completions dipped -14% M/M, -17% YoY. U/C pipeline (606.5m) may be near cycle peak. Good news for the market!

Multi-housing Sensitive Economics Calendar. 7/09: JOLTS (Consensus=-0.7% M/M); 7/10: June FOMC Meeting Minutes; 7/11: June CPI (C=0.0%), Ex-food & Energy (C=0.2%); 7/12: June PPI (C=0.1% M/M, 1.7% YoY), Ex-F&E (C=0.2%, 2.2%). Inflation and the Fed take center stage this week.

Multi-housing Sensitive Econ Calendar. 6/25: Apr FHFA & Case-Shiller HPI, May New Home Sales; 6/26: May Durable Goods (Consensus=0.0%); 6/27: 1Q19 GDP 2nd Revision; 6/28: Personal Inc (C=+0.2%) & Spending (C=+0.3%). Slower home appreciation, faster new homes sales expected.