Quant CIO @ Alphatative. Chief Market Strategist @ REKTelligence. Award-winning trader David Bush delivers equity, ETF, and crypto analysis from the Caribbean.
USA | USVI
Joined November 2022
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REKTelligence retweeted
Looking at the heat map below, we see that trailing EPS are up 30% from a year ago, with the n12m estimate expected to grow another 20%. The margin story continues to impress with another new high clocking in at 17.4 last week. Who wants to step in front of a train like that? Yet, the price that investors are willing to pay for these blockbuster earnings and margins is going down. Investors don’t want to pay top dollar for possibly peak earnings growth, especially as the US Government offers you a risk-free rate of 5.3% nominal and 2.9% real. Plus, that pesky Fed Model is work.
That’s some stiff competition. That rising risk free rate is having its impact on anyone or anything with a vulnerable balance sheet. That includes companies down the quality spectrum, most consumers, and of course, Governments near and far. Just look at French Government bonds as exhibit A (middle of heatmap).
These opposing forces are holding the equity indices in a vice, with only 25% of the market above its 50-day MA and 46% above their 200-day MA. A stealth correction. If the rate pressures subside, it’s easy to see the indices accelerate higher again, especially with the weak seasonals soon ending. But for now, ignore the Fed Model at your peril.
The growth-value gap is the widest in a while.
I tested 3-month $QQQ holds by SPYG/SPYV regime since 2000:
Hit rate: 73–75% in every regime
Avg win/loss: 1.1x normal → 1.5–1.9x at extremes
Same odds. Bigger wins.
The growth signal is live now.
🤖 Made with AI
The 2nd major breadth signal of 2026 has arrived as the number of SP500 stocks > their 20MA recently fell below 20%.
Great stats w/ a 1-month hold for many assets including SMH:
Hit Rate: 66.7%
Avg Trade: +3.74%
Profit Factor: 4.344
Statistically Significant: Yes
*research not advice
REKTelligence retweeted
These are the three publications going out the next three days for those looking to benefit from the AI Crypto Macro Nexus point we are at now. This will explain Why Now. If you waited too long to understand AI, don't repeat the same thing with the rails needed to support the new agentic economy as the swarms have arrived.
#Bitcoin has once again stalled - but still holds - against its 365-day VWAP, the subtle declining red line on the bitcoin:native daily chart here. Past tests have seen quick retreats, but not this time, at least so far. I’ll be looking for more chop, followed by further upside in time.
REKTelligence retweeted
The bond market "collapse" as the reason why you should not buy stocks with record earnings and profit margins, strong global revisions and PMIs and tight credit spreads may be one of the best marketing jobs ever. Despite all the "scary" charts you have seen of 30y yields around the globe, here is the total return YTD (-3%) of 20+ year TLT ETF. Btw, 30y JGB yields broke to new all time highs in May 2025. Nikkei is up 70% since that day. NVDA also about to make new all time highs after the selloff post earnings.
REKTelligence retweeted
We are at the end of the 2nd month of Q3. We have seen a historic tech momentum unwind with Situational Awareness. 10Y yields are closing with their largest QTD rise since 2024 with 30Y yields hitting their highest level since 2007 with a 67% chance of Sept rate hike. Here is the QTD performance as of now. SPX ~2%, NDX ~-3%, Gold ~11%, BTC ~34%, ETH ~57%. AI agents are being released by the millions as we speak and nobody owns the rails they need to transact. 2026 was the birth of agents and 2027 is when they start to spend. Be ready
Hey traders — the Altcoin Index excludes $BTC, $ETH & #stablecoins, and just flipped bullish for the first time since the infamous Oct 10th selloff.
I explore its application to a systematic altcoin strategy as a risk on/risk off switch in my latest report — just out today.
Powerful.
REKTelligence retweeted
It’s telling that the Treasury’s actions last week to buy back more long-dated paper and issue more Bills took down the dollar and caused both gold and Bitcoin to soar. The market senses a slippery slope towards fiscal dominance and a possible loss in Fed independence. The assumption here is that for the Treasury to be successful in keeping yields down, it will need to significantly increase the size of the buybacks. That might require the Fed to become complicit in this operation twist, which takes us down the debasement path. Loose fiscal policy combined with loose monetary policy is a clear negative for the dollar (which is sitting on a long term trendline), and a clear positive for gold (and by extension Bitcoin).
In the modern era of $Bitcoin — 2017 to now — weekly Bitcoin candles up >= +20% have occurred 8 times.
Here’s what a 3-month hold has generated historically:
Hit Rate: 87.5% (7/8)
Avg Trade: +56.28%
Profit Factor: 38.0
"Bitcoin finds you." Word.
Currently the largest weekly rise in BTC since the beginning of last bull market coming out of 2022. Sentiment is low, Bessent is quoting Satoshi in posts, Tech Momentum Vol is at 45 year highs and AI agents are about to change the global economy measurements while the new Fed Chair has five task forces to restructure the way monetary policy is done leaving academic economists lost while the Treasury Sec is doing unconventional interventions to stop the old system from breaking. As Michael Saylor says, you don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds you. Going to be a fun video this weekend.
Past $Bitcoin bottoms have occurred when the cost basis of short-term holders and the average cost basis of the entire network have entered into pain, falling below the cost basis of the long-term #HODL crowd.
We're not quite there yet, even though this remains an attractive area for experienced investors who can wait out some potential pain.
REKTelligence retweeted
The U.S. and Japan just coordinated to support the yen for the first time since 1998.
Most major macro inflection points happen during obvious crisis.
This one did not.
Equities were near highs.
Credit spreads were tight.
The VIX was calm.
There was no banking panic.
No recession signal screaming from markets.
That is what makes it important.
The signal is contextual.
Sovereign debt burdens are rising.
Long-term yields are pressuring policy.
The AI infrastructure buildout requires enormous capital.
The labor market is weakening beneath the surface.
And gold has responded with the type of move that says something important is happening.
This is not 1998 repeating.
It is something different.
The aging credit-backed fiat system is colliding with an AI-fueled digital economy that is moving exponentially faster than the policy architecture built to finance it.
The next intersection is crypto.
AI agents are coming into the financial system.
They will transact, allocate, settle, and move money at machine speed.
That world will need digital collateral, digital settlement, and digital guardrails.
That is why Bitcoin matters in this next phase.
The yen was the signal.
Gold confirmed the pressure.
Crypto is where the AI Macro Nexus goes next.
New post: The Yen Signal
visserlabs.substack.com/p/th…
An uncommon setup occurred yesterday.
The $QQQ had declined by at least 10% in 30 days but the Percentage of SP500 Stocks > their 20-Day Moving Average remained > 60%.
Over the past ~20 years, buying the QQQ with these conditions has a negative average trade using a 1-month hold.
The good news? The broader market holds up even as the air comes out of the highly crowded AI trade.
Full read and context in my latest report. Cheers
I had to save this headline from my iPhone lock screen last night.
$SKHY profit surges 557%…but misses estimates
Truly a sign of the times.
