@RHerman

NQ, ES & Gold futures | Probability over opinion | ICT + backtests | TradingView indicators | https://xitter.cf/t.co/pruz2NQ6Tu | https://xitter.cf/t.co/7xIEUoPhSw

 Portsmouth, United Kingdom
hermantrading.pro
Joined December 2017
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London session. 62% probability for the short side. I took shorts only. +2R on the day. This is the full model. 1. Intelligent Balance Probability Map at 2 AM NY: 62% short, 38% long 2. Bias set: shorts and shorts only 3. Wait for a sweep reversal with confirmation 4. Short #1: too early, too aggressive. -1R 5. Short #2: small but valid confirmed sweep reversal. Entry 6. TP toward the more probable side. Level reached: +3R Basic ICT idea, done with numbers: trade toward the more probable side, and only with confirmation. Full walkthrough in the video. After the first short stopped out, would you have taken the second one?
Herman Trading educational graphic showing a 62% short directional bias on NQ during the London session. An original TradingView replay screenshot accompanies the message that probability selects the trading side while confirmation determines the entry.

ALT Herman Trading educational graphic showing a 62% short directional bias on NQ during the London session. An original TradingView replay screenshot accompanies the message that probability selects the trading side while confirmation determines the entry.

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Hold or fail is a coin flip. Which side NQ sweeps first is not: 74.3%, 12 of 12 years.

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Dow futures opened 08:00 near yesterday's open. PDH or PDL went on 82.7% of those days. The setup, checked at 08:00 New York time: 1. Neither PDH nor PDL taken before 08:00 2. The 08:00 open is near the previous day's open 2022-2026: one of them was taken on 82.7% of 179 days. Distance alone predicts 66.1%. Above expected in 12 of 12 years. When: median 10:08 ET, 61.3% of the takes in the NY morning. How far past the level, at today's daily range: median about 156 points. Do you mark yesterday's open on the Dow? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, YM Daily Study (ym-daily-study), 2015-2026
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Every year since 2015 beat the distance baseline. 2023: 91.2%. 2024: 90.0%.
Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: Dow futures, every year since 2015. Headline: Above expected 12 of 12 years. A large 82.7%: PDH or PDL taken after 08:00, 179 days, 2022-2026. Chips: Expected 66.1%, Median run past it 156 pts, Median 10:08 NY. A bar chart per year with a line for the expected rate: 2015 82, 2016 79, 2017 70, 2018 70, 2019 79, 2020 67, 2021 72, 2022 77, 2023 91, 2024 90, 2025 82, 2026 71 percent. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, YM Daily Study (ym-daily-study), 2015-2026. A Dow futures (YM) daily study from Herman Trading backtesting about previous day high and low liquidity.

ALT Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: Dow futures, every year since 2015. Headline: Above expected 12 of 12 years. A large 82.7%: PDH or PDL taken after 08:00, 179 days, 2022-2026. Chips: Expected 66.1%, Median run past it 156 pts, Median 10:08 NY. A bar chart per year with a line for the expected rate: 2015 82, 2016 79, 2017 70, 2018 70, 2019 79, 2020 67, 2021 72, 2022 77, 2023 91, 2024 90, 2025 82, 2026 71 percent. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, YM Daily Study (ym-daily-study), 2015-2026. A Dow futures (YM) daily study from Herman Trading backtesting about previous day high and low liquidity.

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𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗬𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗡𝗤. 𝟱𝟵.𝟰%. 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆: 𝟲𝟱.𝟵%. Expansion = New York takes a London side and closes beyond it. NQ, New York session by weekday: Monday 59.4% (n 539) Tuesday 61.3% Wednesday 63.7% Thursday 60.7% Friday 65.9% The honest read: weekdays matter little. Every day expands more often than not, Monday included. Monday is not a "no trade" day. It is just the day New York closes beyond a London side least often. Do you trade Mondays like any other day, or wait for Tuesday? Historical frequencies, not a forecast. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Session Study v2 (nq-session-study-v2), 2015-2026
A wide light Herman Trading graphic in two cards. The left card shows NQ New York session 2015-2026, a large gold 59.4%, the text Monday: the lowest NY Expansion rate, n 539 Mondays, the question And the best day?, a gold Swipe button and www.hermantrading.pro. The right card, partly hidden in the feed, is a bar chart titled NY Expansion rate by weekday: Monday 59.4%, Tuesday 61.3%, Wednesday 63.7%, Thursday 60.7%, and Friday 65.9% marked in gold as best. Footer: NQ Session Study v2, 2015-2026, historical, not a forecast. Backtest statistics for NQ futures by session.

ALT A wide light Herman Trading graphic in two cards. The left card shows NQ New York session 2015-2026, a large gold 59.4%, the text Monday: the lowest NY Expansion rate, n 539 Mondays, the question And the best day?, a gold Swipe button and www.hermantrading.pro. The right card, partly hidden in the feed, is a bar chart titled NY Expansion rate by weekday: Monday 59.4%, Tuesday 61.3%, Wednesday 63.7%, Thursday 60.7%, and Friday 65.9% marked in gold as best. Footer: NQ Session Study v2, 2015-2026, historical, not a forecast. Backtest statistics for NQ futures by session.

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Yesterday took only the prior day's low. London was bearish. NQ took the overnight low after 08:00 on 88.8% of 80 days. Both checks are known at 08:00 New York time: 1. The previous day traded below the low of the day before, but not above its high 2. London (02:00-07:59 ET) was bearish The question: does New York trade at least 1 tick below the overnight low (18:00-07:59 ET) after 08:00? 2022-2026: 88.8% of 80 days Expected from the distance alone: 77.2% 2015-2021: 75.9% of 108 days The edge over distance is +11.5 points. It shows up about 1.3 days a month, and the low usually went in the New York morning, median 10:35 ET. A frequency, not a trade signal. No entries, stops or costs modelled. Do you mark the overnight low before New York opens? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Daily Study (nq-daily-study), 2015-2026
Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with deep gold accents. Label: Overnight low taken after 08:00. Headline: Overnight low taken, then in gold: 88.8% of 80 days. A white glass card lists two numbered checks at 08:00 ET: 1, yesterday took only the prior day's low; 2, London (02:00-07:59 ET) was bearish. Three bars follow: this setup 2022-2026 88.8% in gold, expected from distance alone 77.2%, this setup 2015-2021 75.9%. Footer: NQ Daily Study, 2015-2026. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing how often New York takes the overnight low after these two conditions, compared with the rate distance alone predicts.

ALT Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with deep gold accents. Label: Overnight low taken after 08:00. Headline: Overnight low taken, then in gold: 88.8% of 80 days. A white glass card lists two numbered checks at 08:00 ET: 1, yesterday took only the prior day's low; 2, London (02:00-07:59 ET) was bearish. Three bars follow: this setup 2022-2026 88.8% in gold, expected from distance alone 77.2%, this setup 2015-2021 75.9%. Footer: NQ Daily Study, 2015-2026. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing how often New York takes the overnight low after these two conditions, compared with the rate distance alone predicts.

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Your NQ weather for next week. Mon: clear Tue: showers, Durable Goods 8:30 AM ET Wed: storms, Fed 2:00 PM ET Thu: severe, GDP + Core PCE 8:30 AM ET Fri: clear Trump: nothing scheduled. Yet. Which day are you sitting out?
Weather app style card titled NQ, New York: 7 red events next week. Stormy midweek: Fed Wednesday, GDP and Core PCE Thursday. Severe volatility watch: Thursday 8:30 AM ET GDP, Core PCE, personal income and spending, all at the same minute. Wednesday 2:00 PM ET Fed decision, press conference at 2:30. Five-day forecast for the week of Monday October 26, 2026, USD red folder news, Eastern time: Monday clear, 0 red. Tuesday showers, 1 red at 8:30 AM. Wednesday thunderstorms, 2 red at 2:00 and 2:30 PM. Thursday severe storms, 4 red at 8:30 AM. Friday clear, 0 red. Trump: no speech scheduled. Data from the TradingView economic calendar.

ALT Weather app style card titled NQ, New York: 7 red events next week. Stormy midweek: Fed Wednesday, GDP and Core PCE Thursday. Severe volatility watch: Thursday 8:30 AM ET GDP, Core PCE, personal income and spending, all at the same minute. Wednesday 2:00 PM ET Fed decision, press conference at 2:30. Five-day forecast for the week of Monday October 26, 2026, USD red folder news, Eastern time: Monday clear, 0 red. Tuesday showers, 1 red at 8:30 AM. Wednesday thunderstorms, 2 red at 2:00 and 2:30 PM. Thursday severe storms, 4 red at 8:30 AM. Friday clear, 0 red. Trump: no speech scheduled. Data from the TradingView economic calendar.

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Hey @grok You can trade only one market for the next 5 years: NQ, ES, gold or crude. No switching. Which one and why?
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Sunday MOT for your trading. Fail an item and the car stays in the garage on Monday. Stop loss set before entry. Position size calculated, not guessed. Daily loss limit written down. News calendar checked for the week. A plan written for each setup. Journal up to date. Ten minutes on Sunday beats a breakdown on Monday. Which item would fail your test this week?
Herman Trading card styled as a UK MOT test result. Headline: Would your trading pass its MOT? Vehicle: your trading, Sunday. Items: stop loss set before entry PASS; position size calculated, not guessed PASS; daily loss limit written down FAIL; news calendar checked for the week PASS; plan written for each setup FAIL; journal up to date ADVISORY. Result: FAIL, fix 2 items before Monday's open. A weekly pre-trading risk checklist.

ALT Herman Trading card styled as a UK MOT test result. Headline: Would your trading pass its MOT? Vehicle: your trading, Sunday. Items: stop loss set before entry PASS; position size calculated, not guessed PASS; daily loss limit written down FAIL; news calendar checked for the week PASS; plan written for each setup FAIL; journal up to date ADVISORY. Result: FAIL, fix 2 items before Monday's open. A weekly pre-trading risk checklist.

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One screen runs my whole trading business. 3 AI agents on watch. Herman AI Studio: my private command centre. Real screen recording, nothing mocked up. Every card is one part of the business: → AI agents: Claude, ChatGPT and Grok, with an approval queue for me → Content pipeline: writing, drafts, queued, posted → X Growth HQ: a morning niche scout by Grok Bot → Backtesting: 17 verified studies → Socials: 8 networks in one number, refreshed every minute → Studio audit: it checks itself and flags what's broken One glance shows what needs me today. Then back to the charts. What's the first screen you open on a trading day?
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Two independent trades, each with a 70% win rate. Chance both win: 49%. Two great setups. Worse than a coin flip that both work. Stop expecting every trade of the day to pay. How many trades do you take on a good day?
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One planned loss: -1R. Two revenge trades later: -6.3R. The planned loss was the cheap part. Revenge trade 1, double size: -2R. Revenge trade 2, triple size: -3R. Plus fees and slippage: -0.3R. At 1% risk per R, that's about 6.3% of the account in one afternoon. The first stop did its job. The next two trades undid it. What's your rule after the first loss of the day?
Herman Trading Weekly Receipt card. Headline: What one revenge spiral really costs. A paper receipt from Revenge Trading Co., example account at 1% risk per R, lists one planned trade stopped at -1.0R, revenge trade 1 at 2x size -2.0R, revenge trade 2 at 3x size -3.0R, and fees and slippage -0.3R. Planned loss -1.0R, emotional surcharge -5.3R, total -6.3R, about -6.3% at 1% risk per R. Footer: No refunds. Next time, stop after the first one.

ALT Herman Trading Weekly Receipt card. Headline: What one revenge spiral really costs. A paper receipt from Revenge Trading Co., example account at 1% risk per R, lists one planned trade stopped at -1.0R, revenge trade 1 at 2x size -2.0R, revenge trade 2 at 3x size -3.0R, and fees and slippage -0.3R. Planned loss -1.0R, emotional surcharge -5.3R, total -6.3R, about -6.3% at 1% risk per R. Footer: No refunds. Next time, stop after the first one.

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2026 so far... 🌍 One of the best things about being a TRADER is this: your WORK can TRAVEL with you. Not many professions give you the freedom to manage your business, follow the markets, and still explore the world with your family. This year: April - 🇹🇷 Turkey May - 🇫🇷 France road trip July - 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales August - 🇵🇱 Poland October - 🇫🇷 France road trip December - 📍 Searching for destination This Saturday, we’re heading off on another family road trip. From Portsmouth, we’re taking the ferry to Caen and starting our second France trip of the year - this time for a full week on the road by car. That’s why I always say trading is one of the best professions in the world. Yes, it’s hard. Yes, it takes sacrifice. Yes, you pay for this freedom first with discipline. But the reward? The ability to take your office with you, spend more time with family, and experience more of the world without putting life on hold. That kind of freedom is worth working very hard for. December is still open… Any destination ideas? 🌍
Herman Trading
@RHermanAug 4
2026 so far... 🌍 Trading may be one of the hardest professions in the world. But for me, it is also the best. Not because of the P&L. Because of the freedom it can create when you are willing to work for it. This year: April - 🇹🇷 Turkey May - 🇫🇷 France road trip July - 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales August - 🇵🇱 Poland — NOW October - 📍 Searching for destination December - 📍 Searching for destination Today, I’m flying to Poland. My office fits inside a laptop, the markets remain the same, but the view outside the window keeps changing. That freedom did not come easily. It required years of learning, losses, discipline, sacrifice and showing up when quitting would have been easier. But this is exactly why it is worth working so hard for. Trading and travelling. Working from anywhere. Exploring the world without putting your career on pause. For me, that is the real dream. Where are you trading from right now? 🌍
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3 new online stores + Amazon KDP. None of them are about trading. Not a chart post today. Just something real. Whop is the only trading-related one. The rest have nothing to do with NQ. Why bother? Same reason you don't put your whole account on one setup. One income stream is one point of failure. Some of these will make a little. Some more. Some might never take off. Smaller or bigger, passive income is a good thing. It adds up quietly, the same way a small edge does. Are you building anything outside trading, or is it 100% charts for you?
A smartphone lock screen held at a slight angle in front of a sunrise over a calm sea. The screen shows Friday, 23 October and the time 07:04 in large white numbers. Below the clock, a frosted glass widget titled "Income streams", marked "all running", lists six rows, each with a green status dot: Trading, Active; Whop, Live; three Online store rows, S1, S2 and S3, Live; Amazon KDP, Live. At the bottom of the screen: "Working while I sleep." A lifestyle picture of a trader with several income streams running alongside trading.

ALT A smartphone lock screen held at a slight angle in front of a sunrise over a calm sea. The screen shows Friday, 23 October and the time 07:04 in large white numbers. Below the clock, a frosted glass widget titled "Income streams", marked "all running", lists six rows, each with a green status dot: Trading, Active; Whop, Live; three Online store rows, S1, S2 and S3, Live; Amazon KDP, Live. At the bottom of the screen: "Working while I sleep." A lifestyle picture of a trader with several income streams running alongside trading.

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Hey @grok What's the FASTEST way to get my first prop firm payout?
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Hey @grok do you know answer to this question?
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New York stayed inside the London range on 0.5% of NQ days. It took both London sides on 46.6%. London sets the range at 02:00-07:59 ET. New York almost never stays in it. NQ, 2,877 days: → New York stays inside the London range: 0.5% → Takes only one London side: 52.9% → Takes both London sides: 46.6% The first London level usually goes at the cash open: median 09:30 ET for the high, 09:33 for the low. So the question is rarely whether New York breaks London. It is which side goes first. Which London level do you mark first before the open? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Session Study v2 (nq-session-study-v2), 2015-2026
Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Small label: New York vs the London range. Large headline: Stays inside London, then in gold: 0.5% of days. A dark glass card titled What New York does with the London range shows three bars: stays inside the London range 0.5% in gold, takes only one London side 52.9%, takes both London sides 46.6%. A chip below reads First London level taken, median 09:30 ET. Footer: NQ, 2,877 days, 2015-2026, NQ Session Study v2. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ sessions tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. It shows that on NQ futures the New York session almost never stays inside the London session range, a backtest of session liquidity for ICT and session traders.

ALT Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Small label: New York vs the London range. Large headline: Stays inside London, then in gold: 0.5% of days. A dark glass card titled What New York does with the London range shows three bars: stays inside the London range 0.5% in gold, takes only one London side 52.9%, takes both London sides 46.6%. A chip below reads First London level taken, median 09:30 ET. Footer: NQ, 2,877 days, 2015-2026, NQ Session Study v2. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ sessions tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. It shows that on NQ futures the New York session almost never stays inside the London session range, a backtest of session liquidity for ICT and session traders.

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File 001: NQ opening range. 4,320 variants tested. Plain ORB: PF 0.96. With 3 filters: PF 2.31, 230 trades, 12 of 12 years positive, net of costs. Full study in the article below.
Herman Trading
@RHermanOct 22

Plain ORB is break-even on NQ. 3 filters took it to PF 2.31, every year positive.

Article · @RHerman
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Plain ORB is break-even on NQ. 3 filters took it to PF 2.31, every year positive.

Article · @RHerman
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Stop moved to breakeven. Price tagged your entry, then ran to target without you. Breakeven feels safe. Done too early, it turns normal noise into a stop-out and swaps your planned 2R for nothing. Move the stop when structure gives you a reason, not when your nerves do. When do you move your stop to breakeven?
Herman Trading card styled as a UK parking penalty charge notice with a yellow header. Headline: You parked your stop in a no-loss zone. Notice HT-0001 lists vehicle: long 1 MNQ, location: your entry price, contravention: stop moved to breakeven before structure confirmed, observed: price tagged your entry, then ran to your target without you, discount: none. Penalty: the full 2R move you planned. A red ISSUED stamp. A lesson on moving the stop loss to breakeven too early on NQ futures.

ALT Herman Trading card styled as a UK parking penalty charge notice with a yellow header. Headline: You parked your stop in a no-loss zone. Notice HT-0001 lists vehicle: long 1 MNQ, location: your entry price, contravention: stop moved to breakeven before structure confirmed, observed: price tagged your entry, then ran to your target without you, discount: none. Penalty: the full 2R move you planned. A red ISSUED stamp. A lesson on moving the stop loss to breakeven too early on NQ futures.

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Hey @grok What's the SIMPLEST trading strategy that's actually profitable? Be honest.
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