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Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG) profile picture

Matt Gordon

@RWResearchMG

Retail/Consumer Analyst at Random Walk

ranwalk.com
Joined March 2023
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  • Following11
  • Followers9
25Media
Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)Photo by Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
Very exciting new tool for investors #altdata #promotions
Gregory Robin (@RWResearch) profile pictureGregory Robin
@RWResearch31 Aug 2023
Our technology team is excited to launch our retailer desperation index. This tracks growth in keywords associated with sluggish sales such as "one more day" and "extended". An overview of our process below! The Alternative Data Podcast shows.acast.com/the-alternat… via @acast
The Random Walk Episode | The Alternative Data Podcast

The Random Walk Episode | The Alternative Data Podcast

Casting an eye on the fastest growing segment in investment

shows.acast.com
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Our technology team is excited to launch our retailer desperation index. This tracks growth in keywords associated with sluggish sales such as "one more day" and "extended". An overview of our process below! The Alternative Data Podcast shows.acast.com/the-alternat… via @acast
The Random Walk Episode | The Alternative Data Podcast

The Random Walk Episode | The Alternative Data Podcast

Casting an eye on the fastest growing segment in investment

shows.acast.com
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Investors appeared fixated on historical earnings -- when the brand was much stronger -- and unrealistic management projections. Management changes and activism might not be enough to fix this broken brand $VSCO
Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG) profile pictureMatt Gordon@RWResearchMG19 Mar 2023
The 2025 "Future Vision" looks more and more like a pipe dream with each passing quarter. Data > Narrative $VSCO. What is the bull thesis here?
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
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Strong promotional signals from $WOOF. We captured "Huge Summer Clearance" language for the first time and record blasts of $10 off coupons
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
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Several of Nike's wholesale partners appear very eager to unload inventory. Doesn't look good for future orders $NKE $FL $HIBB $SCVL
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
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Foot Locker is practically begging customers to buy Nikes $FL $NKE #toomuchinventory
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
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Adidas too $ADDYY
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When consumer brands see demand for their products collapse the first thing they do is ramp "push" email promotions. Its cheap and easy, this is what Olaplex did ahead of a nearly 50% collapse in revenues. $OLPX #discount #promotions #retail $XRT $RTH $SPY
Image from Gregory Robin (@RWResearch)
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Camping World reduced their dividend in a panic, sending shares south, as pandemic driven RV and camping gear mania abates. Our promotional ensemble altered our investors ahead. We have been tracking dramatically higher steep discount email volumes. $CWH. #retail #discounts
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Dont miss the next big inflection in retail. Our promotional ensemble identifies changes in how brands are communicating with leads before the blow up. HeyDude and Croc's promos were exploding ahead of their recent reduced growth outlook.
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Excited to launch our promotional heat maps this week! Home improvement, handbags, sporting goods continue to ramp discounts and email campaigns. Vacations, hotels and gambling are outliers that have reduced promotions. $DKS, $HIBB, $CPRI, $TPR, $BKNG, $DKNG, $MAR, $EXPE, $UAA
Image from Gregory Robin (@RWResearch)
Image from Gregory Robin (@RWResearch)
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$M Press release: "We delivered a solid beat on our gross margin rate and bottom line expectations" Reality: Diluted EPS fell by ~43% YoY, sales are decelerating, SG&A historically high as % of sales
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$VSCO has a lot of "strengthening the core" left to do if it wants to hit its 2025 "future vision."
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Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG) profile pictureMatt Gordon@RWResearchMG19 Mar 2023
The 2025 "Future Vision" looks more and more like a pipe dream with each passing quarter. Data > Narrative $VSCO. What is the bull thesis here?
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
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$PLCE with a MASSIVE guide down this morning. In just 3 months the EPS midpoint target was lowered from $2.75 to $1.25
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
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"Ongoing macro-tension which resulted in outsized pressure on our core customer by limiting their purchasing power"
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fancy way of saying deteriorating demand
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Strong results from $DKS and maintaining the full-year outlook (nice!) More stable promotional trends than many in retail currently
Image from Matt Gordon (@RWResearchMG)
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$LOW solid numbers this quarter given the environment, but joins $HD in lowering the full-year outlook These giants appear to be stuck in a promotional battle for fewer consumer dollars
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Check out this chart from Random Walk -- $LOW has been stepping up the promotional cadence big time. Lowe's 'Spring Savings Event' never existed until this year. If LOW comps better/less bad than $HD, it's gonna cost GM$. It's buying the comp. Best Idea Short.
Image from Brian McGough (@HedgeyeRetail)
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Promotional trend of a company experiencing "Uncertainty regarding consumer demand" and "further softening of demand relative to our expectations" $HD
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