TheRainmaker

Too many have unfortunately become accustomed to “Talking into the void" and cleverly call it breaking news.

The Constitution is the embodiment of the values, standards and principles all South Africans aspire to, bind themselves to live by, strive for and achieve. It is not merely a legal document; it is a social compact born from the pain of our past and the promise of our future. It declares that South Africa belongs to all who live in it, united in our diversity. It binds us to human dignity, equality, freedom, and the advancement of human rights. It commits us to non-racialism and non-sexism, to the supremacy of the rule of law, and to a genuine democracy where every voice counts. To live by it is to practice ubuntu, to reject corruption and abuse of power, to protect the vulnerable, and to hold leaders accountable. To strive for it is to work daily to heal the divisions of apartheid, to free the potential of each person, to build an inclusive economy, and to ensure social justice. To achieve it is to realise a South Africa that is just, prosperous and truly free — a living reality for generations to come.

In this current economy, South Africa can't absorb a large, unmanaged influx easily — it can only manage it. And that distinction matters. It is likely to create more tensions and contestation than we care to admit. Here is the current reality: 1. The economic space is extremely tight: - Official unemployment is 33.6% in Q2 2026, up from 32.7% in Q1 — 8.5 million people unemployed, employment fell by 16,000 to 16.7 million. - Youth unemployment 15-34 is 47.4%, and 60.9% for 15-24 year olds. - GDP contracted -0.2% in Q2 2026, ending six quarters of growth. Economists describe growth as trapped in a 1% to 2% corridor — below the population growth rate and far below the 3% government says is needed to create 1 million jobs. When growth is sustainably less than 1%, we are not creating new jobs for new entrants, let alone absorbing outsiders. 2. So what are we risking if the influx grows without systems? a) Strain on already scarce municipal services Studies note that South Africa has hosted one of the highest numbers of asylum seekers globally, and that influx "places a strain on already scarce resources such as employment, health, housing, and municipal services". In Gauteng, this shows up as pressure on clinics, schools, RDP housing lists, water and informal settlements. b) Informal sector competition, not formal job loss The data from June-July 2026 is telling: thousands of foreign nationals left after March and March-related deadlines, but unemployment did _not_ fall — it rose by 345,000. That suggests that unemployment is structural — weak investment, deindustrialization, skills mismatch — not primarily caused by migrants. Where competition is real is in the informal economy: spaza shops, street trading, day labour, construction. That is where South Africans and newcomers compete fiercely for the same R200-R350 a day. c) Social cohesion and "xenophobic" violence When resources are scarce, tension fuels clashes. Research documents post-1994 attacks with deaths, displacement, and looting of foreign-owned shops. This is not unique to South Africa as we see elsewhere on the continent. Gauteng shedding 22,000 jobs in Q2 makes this worse. d) Fiscal and administrative risk South Africa has a constitutional and international obligation under the UN and AU Refugee Conventions and the Refugees Act of 1998. But Home Affairs has a massive backlog — corruption, bribery for permits, and long delays in status determination. That leaves many people in limbo, undocumented, unable to open bank accounts, rent formally, or access healthcare, pushing them into informality. The constitutional court ruling doesn't address this. Medical exclusion is also documented — groups blocking clinic entrances, demanding IDs — creating public health risks like missed TB treatment, maternal deaths, and preventable complications. e) Investment and reputation risk If vigilante enforcement is seen as tolerated, investors and skilled migrants leave. In the last cycle, foreign-owned businesses that employed a few South Africans shut down. That costs jobs on both sides. Can we absorb? It depends on 3 things: 1. Managed vs unmanaged: A documented, skills-screened system with quick status decisions reduces strain. An unmanaged, backlogged system increases it. 2. Growth: At 1% economic growth rate we cannot absorb! At 3%+ with fixed investment, we can. The problem is growth, not just numbers. 3. Location: Nationally the impact is small — foreign-born are ∼5-7% of population. In short: South Africa has the legal duty to protect genuine refugees, BUT does not have the economic capacity right now to absorb a large unmanaged influx without increasing unemployment tension, service pressure, resources tensions and push back violence. The biggest risk isn't just economics — it's that low growth + high unemployment + weak border management creates a cycle where everyone feels poorer and blames the nearest competitor.

Jim Collins' book, “How The Mighty Have Fallen” outlines 5 stages of decline: 1) Hubris from success, 2) Undisciplined pursuit of more, 3) Denial of risk, 4) Grasping for salvation, 5) Capitulation. Decline is self-inflicted. Recovery is possible if leaders confront reality early with disciplined discipline.

KORE POTASH The recent rise in #Kore Potash's (#KP2 ) share price is most likely linked to the market's growing expectation that one of two significant value events could occur: 1. A corporate takeover transaction through the ongoing Formal Sale Process, where two interested parties remain engaged. 2. Finalisation of the US$2.2 billion Kola financing package, which would move the flagship project materially closer to construction. The next scheduled catalyst is likely the September-quarter (Q3) operational update in late October 2026, but investors will be closely watching for any earlier announcement regarding the sale process or financing negotiations. This may be the next major catalyst because management could provide updates on: • The Formal Sale Process. • OWI-RAMS funding negotiations. • Contract operator selection. • Strategic partner discussions. At any time the biggest market-moving announcements would likely be: 1. A firm takeover offer. 2. Exclusive negotiations with a bidder. 3. Definitive project financing agreements. 4. Strategic partner announcement. 5. Construction decision on Kola. Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Investors should perform their own due diligence and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. Investments carry risk, including the possible loss of capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Global Mining Weekly Roundup - Week to 04 September 2026 AFRICA - Earnings and critical minerals push: South Africa led with Impala Platinum reporting FY profit surge to ZAR 31.04bn from ZAR 761m last year on higher PGM prices and ZAR 11.1bn impairment reversal at Rustenburg, with revenue up to ZAR 135.15bn. US DFC announced $62.8m package for rare earths across 4 African countries including Harena's Ampasindava ionic clay project in Madagascar. In Northern Cape, Kazera Global secured mining right for heavy mineral sands. Electra Mining Africa build-up starts ahead of 7-11 Sept show at Johannesburg Expo Centre focused on electrification and automation. In Zambia, India resumed talks on 26 August for copper/critical minerals investments. Ghana signed MoU with Shell and Chevron for South Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points block. CANADA: Newmont to voluntarily delist from TSX on 24 Sept due to low volumes, keeping NYSE primary. Canada and Australia signed new G7 Critical Minerals Alliance agreements to diversify away from China. AUSTRALIA: Santana Minerals hit 20.7m @ 4.8g/t Au at RAS South on 3 Sept. Lynas Rare Earths confirmed it was in takeover talks earlier this year. Sibanye-Stillwater approved $340m restart of Mt Lyell copper-gold in Tasmania [26kt Cu, 16koz Au pa] and Burnstone gold in SA [130koz pa for 25yrs]. ELSEWHERE: Uganda named first crude grade "Pearl Sweet" ahead of end-2026 production via EACOP pipeline.

AUG 2026 - Week 4 GLOBAL MINERALS WEEKLY ROUNDUP South Africa's PGM miners rallied as Valterra Platinum flagged tighter 2026 supply, while gold output ticked higher on improved grades at Harmony. Canada's critical minerals push accelerated, with Ottawa fast-tracking lithium permits in Quebec and First Quantum reporting higher copper production at its Ontario operations. Australia's iron ore majors - BHP and Rio Tinto - saw shipments rebound despite Port Hedland disruptions, as lithium spodumene prices stabilized on restocking. Elsewhere, Chile's copper output eased, DRC cobalt exports faced new quota scrutiny, and Indonesian nickel smelter cuts supported prices. EV battery demand underpinned steady sentiment. #Mining #Minerals #Global #WeekendPreview #News #Markets

THOUGHTS ON WHO COULD BE WANTING TO BUYOUT KORE POTASH? Kore Potash (#KP2) has announced to the market that it is running a formal sale process since Nov 2025 with SP Angel. They’ve confirmed that bidders are in, but names are under NDA. So I will be speculating based on who needs what #KorePotash has. Wild, I know but let's try. WHAT DOES KORE HAVE? Kore owns 97.46% of the Kola Potash Project plus Dougou Extension in the Republic of Congo. This is one of the world’s biggest undeveloped low cost sylvinite deposits: ∼2.2Mtpa Muriate of Potash for 33+ years. Capex to build has been projected at ∼$2B. The Government has granted the Mining Rights. The project has successfully crossed all the feasibility studies confirming it's great potential and low cost. The EPC contractor (Power China) is on board. Next stage is development and production which could happen in 2027. Relations with the Government are great. Much of the slog work has been done. WHAT IS MY GUESS ON LIKELY BUYERS? This will cover #Buyer type, why they’d bidand speculated names floated/possible. SCENARIO 1: POTASH MAJORS: - Kola is Tier-1 and they have no big new mines in the pipeline. - Potash is oligopoly with 4 major players controlling around ~60% of global supply supply (Possible watch outs: Nutrien, Mosaic, Yara, EuroChem and Uralkali.) - EuroChem already has Congo exposure. SCENARIO 2: CHINESE SOEs -China imports ~50% of global potash. - Securing supply is strategic to China. - PowerChina is already an EPC contractor for Kola.(Possible watch outs: Sinofert, Migao, CITIC, PowerChina or even a China-Africa mining fund). SCENARIO 3: STRATEGIC INVESTOR + OPERATOR - The “contract operator + equity” model that Kore asked for from OWI-RAMS already made a $2.2B funding package offer. Could convert to equity buyout. SCENARIO 4: PE / MINING ROYALTY FUNDS - Buy cheap, de-risk, flip to a major. - Potash is long-life, cash-yielding.(Possible watch outs: Appian Capital, Denham Capital, Emr Capital) WHAT COULD BE THE SPECULATIVE BUYOUT PRICE PER SHARE? This is hard to tell so one would use rough numbers because Kore is pre-revenue, so one would value the #asset, NOT earnings. CURRENT STATUS AS AT SEP 2025: - Market Cap: ~£150m = ∼$190m USD - Share price: ∼2.75p = €0.0275-€0.0295 - 52-wk range: 2.1p to 4p HOW COULD ONE VALUE #KOLA? 1. NPV BASIS: Analyst models for Kola pre-2022 were ∼$1.0B - $1.3B with NPV8 after tax at $300/t potash. 2. TAKEOVER DISCOUNT: Juniors in a sale process usually trade 20-40% below NPV because of funding/country risk. 3. PRECEDENT: African potash M&A is very thin. Recent lithium/copper juniors have gone at 0.4x-0.7x NPV not withstanding the fact that these are all strategic and critical minerals that major nations are pursuing even through strategic stockpiling. MY GUESS RANGE IF A DEAL HAPPENS IN 2026: - LOW CASE / DISTRESSED: 3.5p - 4.5p/share = ~£190m-£245m equity value. ∼30% premium to current, but ∼0.3x NPV. Buyer takes all the $2B build risk. - BASE CASE: 5p - 7p/share = ~£270m-£380m. ∼80-150% premium. ∼0.4-0.5x NPV. This is typical for a “strategic” takeout. - HIGH CASE / BIDDING WAR: 8p - 10p/share = ~£435m-£545m. Only if 2+ majors fight and potash price is >$350/t. REALITY CHECK: Kore shareholders could be underwater vs prior 10p+ levels depending on when and at what prices they purchased the stock. Most would likely take 6p+ just to de-risk. The 2 bidders are in early-stage evaluation, so nothing is locked. KEY RISKS TO ANY BUYOUT ACTION: Republic of Congo country risk, $2B funding gap, potash price volatility, and the fact that there’s “no guarantee of any firm offer”. For now, no news is good news as talks continue. One can only wish them well that the outcome will unlock value to all shareholders. DISCLAIMER & NOTE: This is not financial advice.

FACTS: Lab tests measuring post-yield stress versus strain response show that brittle fracture occurs, followed by loss in strength associated with strain-softening behavior resulting in proneness to FOGs & spontaneous tunnel collapses.

Allow Ministry and Department Comms to handle communication once Government Comms has released Cabinet outcomes. Get working and deliver services to us the people! Measure the impact of your Department work and interventions, and communicate! Finish and klaar! #GNU