TLDR: If you want to know if an nft is going to thrive, just identify who’s buying and whether they exist above or below the red line. 2021-22 nft was a bubble formed by a specific group of crypto native who got rich from crypto bullrun, result of abundance. Most of the people involved exist above the red line, who’s basic needs are well taken care of. The top nfts were completely unobtainable for most people outside that bubble. Floor prices were high, gas were high, common folk couldnt even participate. They were looking up the sky to nft gods for the occasional crumbs. Fast forward few years, gas is dirt cheap. Entries and floors are low. People who couldnt afford to participate before flocked to web3 in droves to make money. Anyone can mint nfts Now, most cheap/free and new mint have a segment of new audience compared to 2021 nft run. The ones below the red line. You cant tell someone whose basic food necessities not met to hold a jpeg, it just doesnt make sense for them. Its literally impossible for them not to eat. Jpegs are Veblen goods. Higher the price, higher desirability. Why apply maslow here? Just makes it easier and clearer that moving forward the digital art jpeg era will be super easy to navigate. - Only a handful of legacy projects left surviving and each of their value proposition is clear as day - luxury sought after art is easy af to identify (vol, collectors, premiums, artist’s legacy) - slops, scams, cashgrabs, cheap and low effort nfts main target audience = burger grinders, minters to flip for tonights dinner meal, demographic = iykyk (no hate, just reality) - cheap and low effort launches = no better than useless memecoins to satisfy jpeg burger flippers need to flip for cents Easier mode than 2022 where most jpeg traders didnt know where its headed - crazy fps that didnt make sense - fomo buying moonbirds at 40e despite kevin rose being a well known scammer - crazy otherside land fomo Now we know: - historical nfts: punks etc - trustworthy legacy projects: bayc - digital art leaders: beeple, sam spratt, jackbutcher, xcopy, artblocks - up and rising: iykyk(only a handful) TLDR: If you want to know if an nft is going to thrive, just identify who’s buying and whether they exist above or below the red line. (Writing this for myself)