I study energy markets, climate policy, and their effects on the economy. Professor @UCDavisEcon, former @DallasFed

California
Joined March 2020
David Rapson retweeted
You can debate the magnitude of people who move for tax reasons. But if you debate the existence you lose all credibility with me. I could easily name more than a dozen people I know who have moved from high-tax jurisdictions to low-tax jurisdictions to reduce their taxes.
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A major issue at @ucdavis, and probably throughout academia. Many misalignment issues arise from this development, including much higher administrative burdens on faculty that detract from research and teaching (which seem less of a priority for universities these days).
How bad is administrative bloat in higher ed? At MIT, the “student body has grown by 8% and its faculty by 9% since the mid-1980s. By comparison, the tally of administrators jumped by 189%.”
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David Rapson retweeted
Very funny that billionaires are like “I am leaving”. And Zucman’s response is “sorry no, my theory doesn’t allow this”
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David Rapson retweeted
California's Billionaire Tax Act would collect roughly $30 billion. Accounting for lost income taxes from departures, the mean Net Present Value is negative $39 billion, from Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh nber.org/papers/w35899
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David Rapson retweeted
Yeah, I don’t think this is about classroom size.
Marseille city hall has fallen & they have put up Palestinian flags inside
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You’re 25x more likely to be a millionaire than be homeless in the US
Replying to @hasanthehun
everyone thinks for some reason that they are closer to becoming a millionaire than becoming homeless.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Recent polling shows a majority of US voters believe they are more likely to become homeless than a millionaire. US data show roughly 23.6 million millionaires versus ~746,000 experiencing homelessness on a given night. dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/8/13… investopedia.com/new-report-rev… hud.gov/news/hud-no-26…
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David Rapson retweeted
The world is better than ever:
Communism aside, nothing about the current state of the world should make you happy, get out of your bubble
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David Rapson retweeted
Six Nobel Prize-winning economists, and @gabriel_zucman, have endorsed California's proposed billionaire tax. But what do economists who actually specialize in taxation think? I surveyed them to find out. Turns out they don't support it. 🧵
A one-time 5% wealth tax would bring Silicon Valley’s billionaires’ wealth back to where it was just 31 days ago, on September 7. When it was "just" 178% higher than on January 1, 2023. They’d rather let 3 million people lose their health insurance than let that happen.
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You need to think about the marginal, not the inframarginal. (Plus the huge body of research that says taxes do matter for things like investment)
“The idea that Mark Zuckerberg was sitting in his Harvard dorm room and would have been deterred from starting Meta if the capital gains tax rate was slightly closer to the ordinary income tax rate strikes me as categorically absurd,” argues @NatashaRSarin, professor of law at Yale Law School.
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Powell saw this coming, and it's one of the reasons he decided to stay through his term as a governor. President Trump has formed a committee to evaluate the mortgage-fraud allegations made against Fed governor Lisa Cook wsj.com/economy/central-bank… via @WSJ
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Clear articulation of one of humanity's most under-appreciated truths.
Economies that enable people to get rich via positive-sum market activity are ones in which the poor are well-fed.
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David Rapson retweeted
Counterpoint:
sorry but socialism is the most effective form of altruism currentaffairs.org/news/2022…
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David Rapson retweeted
What puzzles me about French economists like Gabriel, as well as Emmanuel and Tomas, is the zeal they bring in trying to convince Americans that they have to implement a French model that is focused on redistribution rather than growth, because every indication we have suggests that the focus on redistribution has cost France, and some other countries in Europe, like my own native Belgium, very dearly so far. In fact, the French economy looks like it is about to enter a serious fiscal crisis because its redistribution model is no longer sustainable. Californians ought to celebrate the fact that wealth is being created in California, and not somewhere else in the U.S. or in the rest of the world. Americans, and Californians, for that matter, should continue to do what they do best, which is focus on growing the pie. It would be a mistake to adopt a model that is fundamentally broken. What the French should do instead is try to copy the model that made California an engine of innovation. In that case, smart, highly educated French kids wouldn't come to the U.S. to start companies. They would do so in France. If they had done that, they would have more than one AI startup company.
As voting begins today, the world needs to know what Silicon Valley billionaires are doing to sabotage the billionaire tax now on the ballot in California. This is shocking. 🧵
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David Rapson retweeted
It's shocking that one of the most empirically interesting historians working today couldn't find a publisher for his most recent book, despite the fact that his previous works in this vein were minor best sellers and award-winning works.
New on SteveSailer dot Net -- Gregory Clark’s new book: “To Have and Have Not” The economic historian has posted online the final volume of his groundbreaking trilogy on heredity and environment because he can’t find an unwoke academic publisher. stevesailer.net/p/gregory-cl…
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He’s in luck: The ratio of total millionaires to billionaires in America is roughly 23,600 to 1.
I'd rather have an economy that makes 1,000 millionaires than 1 billionaire.
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David Rapson retweeted
Dear policymakers: Don’t ask us to quantify the GHG effects of this bill. We don’t have the tools, and it wouldn't help you if we did because people who oppose it on climate grounds want ~zero additional fossil infrastructure. So don’t ask us. BECAUSE WE WILL DO IT IF YOU ASK
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David Rapson retweeted
Isn’t it quite the contrary? The universal energy playbook is for countries to maximize their reliance on the resources they have in abundance and can produce at scale. China has little choice but to build more solar and wind capacity while continuing to rely heavily on coal.
The US and China followed very different energy pathways. The US became the world’s largest oil and gas producer. China became the largest low-emissions power generator. There is no universal energy-security playbook. mck.co/aftershocks
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“a federal tax would lessen risks related to capital flight”. True. As an individual state acting unilaterally, I would exercise an abundance of caution before FAFO-ing on this particular margin.
I want to briefly explain why I joined Abhijit Banerjee, Peter Diamond, Esther Duflo, Paul Krugman and Joe Stiglitz in signing the letter on the California billionaire tax: ft.com/content/94ec0fee-53ab… In principle, I am not convinced that permanent wealth taxes would be necessary if the tax-transfer system were designed optimally. But the US tax system is very far from optimal, and has been for decades. As I have documented in my research (for example, here: mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/…), labor income is taxed much more heavily than capital income. This asymmetry creates two distinct problems. First, it makes the tax system highly regressive at the top. The very rich, who receive much of their income from capital or can use accounting tricks to reclassify their income as capital income, pay remarkably little in taxes. For example, a business owner who runs their own company should receive a significant part of their income as labor earnings for their work as CEO. Instead, they can take their compensation in stock and borrow against those holdings to finance whatever consumption they desire, minimizing their tax obligations. Even their heirs may avoid paying these taxes. Second, the asymmetry distorts automation decisions: it effectively subsidizes machinery and AI relative to hiring workers (for example, here: brookings.edu/articles/does-…). These distortions have allowed a small number of people to amass vast fortunes without paying their fair share of taxes, and have fueled excessive automation. The resulting inequality is a problem in its own right. It is all the more dangerous today because our institutions have become fragile, allowing the very wealthy to exert growing control over the political process. A temporary wealth tax can therefore be justified on three grounds: (1) it partially reverses the effects of more than two decades of tax avoidance by the very wealthy; (2) it acts as a brake on their growing dominance over the political process; and (3) it may pave the way for more comprehensive tax reform at the federal level. The California billionaire tax is not perfect. For example, a federal tax would lessen risks related to capital flight, and removing the rigid earmarking of the revenues for specific purposes would enable the proceeds to reduce the national debt. Nevertheless, with few other options on the table, I believe the California proposal deserves support.
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David Rapson retweeted
If you ban diesel exports, this is what happens: 1) Without the overseas market, diesel inventories start to accumulate domestically. This temporarily puts downward pressure on wholesale prices in the US, likely more so in the Gulf Coast than anywhere else. HOWEVER
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