Part 2: An Engineer’s Take on the Cenovus & Athabasca Oil Acquisition (2... youtu.be/we69x3grcMY?si=9Lt5… via @YouTube $ATH.TO 🫡🪒

An Engineer’s Take on the Cenovus & Athabasca Oil Acquisition (1/3) youtu.be/kCLypx57Jz0?si=Rtei… via @YouTube 🫡🪒

The Sep-26 reported monthly OIL production rate for $SCR.TO STRATHCONA RESOURCES LTD. TUCKER LAKE SAGD asset was 22,660 bbl/d. Previous month oil production was 22,613 bbl/d, yielding change in production oil rate of +0.2%.The average injected STEAM rate was 107,751 bbl/d from the identified 92 SAGD injectors, with overall Steam to Oil Ratio of 4.75. Source: AER, Petrinex 🫡🪒

Flushing contributed but for September 250,000 bbl/d 🫡🪒

Everyone enjoying some good ol' shake and bake? 😗🪒

The Sep-26 reported monthly OIL production rate for former MEG ENERGY CORP. $CVE.TO Christina Lake North asset was 116,772 bbl/d. Previous month oil production was 115,076 bbl/d, yielding change in production oil rate of +1.47%. The average injected STEAM rate was 243,638 bbl/d from the identified 152 SAGD injectors, with overall Steam to Oil Ratio of 2.0 This number is going to 150,000 bbl/d in the upcoming years. Data source: AER, Petrinex 🫡🪒

$ATH.TO Leismer asset completed cored wells and image log wells within the development area boundaries. This is not unique to this asset. These companies are not "E&P" Exploration and Production companies but should be seen as oil manufacturing businesses. The geology and oil in place is well understood and derisked. As shown below, between 2010-2015 , Statoil/Equinor spent significant amount of capital studying the asset resulting in drilling of Pad L8 in recent years, and the rest is history. The reality of having a paid for CPF producing 40,000 bbl/d from this resource for the next 50 years is not appreciated.🫡🪒

One important observation I have noticed from people on X commenting, often emotionally, while closely following the price action of a stock: everyone seems to be a great historian and prophet of cash flows and prices, yet I rarely see any real analysis of the assets themselves....like the quality of these assets what the future looks like for these assets.... There’s little discussion of geology, development, or the certainty of delivering future barrels. After all, isn’t that the most important thing about a business, as an example: its ability to spend less and produce more of something? Or in other words being low cost of supply for longer...But no, the easy shiny object is the oil price, which is simple to understand and watch, and that’s about it. $100 Good, $60 Bad...due diligence accomplished....So sad....🫡🪒

New recovery scheme CAGD- Cone Assisted Gravity Drainage 🫡🪒

Technical bros understand what’s up 🫡🪒

Good morning 🇨🇦 Christina Lake, Alberta ! 200 years of oil to produce at current production rate, without new technologies or optimizations… 🌅🫡🪒

Gas YTD…😳🪒

me still watching $ATH.TO ticker even though I already sold everything and know it's not going to move....🫡🪒

WTI $100 🛢️🫡🪒

Comparing Greenfire to Cenovus on estimated per flowing, $GFR.TO EV=$2.76B Current Production 34k bbl/d. $CVE.TO EV=$88B Current Production around 1mm bbl/d. Big difference in how many barrels of oil could be brought online with the same steam, where Cenovus much more efficient with much lower SORs+ Refining business. Current EV/flowing for both around $81k-$83k/flowing assuming similar growth profile. Classic market efficiency theory kicking-in in valuing these businesses, nothing here is easy. Key conclusion for retail: 1.)If you go smaller, doesn't necessarily translate to better returns. 2.)Geology risk (heterogeneity especially with IHS) still and always NOT well understood by most based my observation. 3) $ATH.TO was NOT acquired for >$100k/flowing on short-term forward looking basis, considering what was already paid for with the upcoming production uplift. Hope it helps. 🫡🪒